Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Understanding Russian Mentality

     Six days ago I posted a blog about understanding North Korean mentality.  In it, I talked about the fact that revenge seemed to be a very important factor in anything to do with dealing with North Korean thinking.  Korean mentality, north and south, has strong cultural ties to the business of avenging an affront or wrong doing.  You can see this even in old folk tales.  Just look at today's very popular K-dramas.  Like the folk tales, they too predominantly deal with the subject of revenge.  So, North Koreans are culturally bound to feel a need to "avenge" the wrong, the wrong that was carried out by the United States during the war.  We have to understand that part of the Korean mentality to be able to deal, to negotiate.  Russian mentality is different, it does not have the same need for revenge as Korean mentality.  But, it too has its own peculiarities, its own quirks, that are completely different from other cultures.
     It is easy to see Russia and Russians as just "Eastern Europeans,"  i.e., in the same category as other non-Western Europeans.  That is the way Russians are most commonly perceived by Americans.  Europeans, Western Europeans in particular, may have a different view.  But we, being somewhat removed from Europe, both culturally and physically (separated by the Atlantic Ocean) have somewhat of a simplistic view of Russians.  We see them mostly as blonde, blue-eyed, northern European types, which they are indeed to a large extent.  Just walk the streets of a Russian city and you will note that the majority of the population, particularly in the western part of the country, resemble Nordic types.  Of course there is a reason for that.  Russia was settled by Vikings in the early days, so they are descendants of Vikings as much as other ethnic groups.  But that is where the similarity with Scandinavians or other northern Europeans and Russians stops.
     Russia has been isolated from the rest of Europe by the simple fact of its location.  It is essentially located on the eastern edge of Europe.  Aside from its physical isolation, Russia has had a long history of foreign invasions, invasions that brought about destruction and death at a level experienced by very few countries in the world.  Russia's relations with Western European countries has not been all that good.  Historically, various European countries have tried to invade and conquer Russia repeatedly.  Going back to the days of Mongol invasion and conquest of Russia as well as parts of Europe, Russia was under the Mongol yoke longer than any other country.  The Golden Horde ruled over Russia for a long, long time.  Since shedding the Mongol rule, Russia has experience major invasions by various European countries several times in each century.  If we jump to more "recent" times, we find that just about all of Russia's great rulers had to fight off foreign invasions.  Fredrick the Great of Sweden attempted to conquer Russia and caused great destruction and death before he was defeated.  This was followed by Napoleon in his now infamous attempt to conquer Russia.  Again, great suffering by Russian people, many deaths, etc.  In between those two great invasions, there were numerous smaller invasions by various countries, ranging from Lithuania, Poland, and others.  Russia also fought almost repeatedly with the Ottoman Empire, the Turks. 
     The 20th Century saw Russia engaged in World War One against Kaiser of Germany, but there was no invasion of the Motherland, instead, a revolution broke out causing bloodshed and destruction.  The revolution and the civil war that followed lasted into mid 1920s, and less than two decades later Hitler invaded Russia!  This war, World War Two, was a defining war for Russia in the modern era.  What few Americans really realize or think about is the fact that Russia, or the Soviet Union as it was known then, fought all alone for all practical purposes for about a three year period!  Yes, England was engaged in the war and we stepped-in and started with North Africa and later Italy, before actually opening the second front by making the D-Day landing in Normandy.  But we must remember that 75% of Germany's fighting machine was committed to the Eastern Front, to Russia!  The final result, victory for "allies" and defeat of Germany cost us millions upon millions of dollars in war material and other supplies.  We, as a nation had to tighten our belts, women had to go to work in factories because of shortage of manpower.  Certain food items were rationed, there were shortages, but we managed.  We lost 418,000 men and women in the war.  As a result of the war and its finale, America came of age and emerged as the leading economic and military power in the world.  Our homeland was untouched.  Hawaii, not yet a state, was the only place other than the very isolated Aleutian Islands that experienced any destruction and had direct contact with the war.
     Russia, on the other hand, had suffered tremendous destruction and loss.  Cities were completely destroyed, like Stalingrad, and the population suffered unbelievable hardships.  A total of close to 25 million Russians lost their lives during the war.  More than half of those deaths were civilian!  In Leningrad, today's St. Petersburg, more than a million civilians died of starvation and other causes during almost a three year siege!  No country in the world suffered such losses.  Yes, Germany (over 5 million deaths) suffered tremendously, as did Japan (over 2 million deaths).  Japan even had atomic bombs dropped on its two cities.  But over all, no country went through what Russia had gone through during the war.  During the war, Stalin continuously asked Churchill and Roosevelt, his allies, to open a second front to provide relief for the beleaguered Red Army.  But, the second front was delayed for various reasons, one being that Churchill wanted to sap Russia's strength before stepping-in and opening a second front.  Churchill, incidentally, entertained thoughts of pushing on into Russia after defeating Germany!  Stalin and the Russian leaders were keenly aware of this situation.  To say that they didn't trust the allies, i.e., U.S. and U.K. would be an understatement.  The Cold War had started before World War Two ended!
     Throughout its history, Russia saw Western Europe betray or go against Russia's wishes or wants.  The Crimean War (1853-56) was fought between Russia and England.  The Russo-Japanese War (1905) ended in a stalemate but the subsequent peace treaty brokered by the U.S. (Teddy Roosevelt) forced Russia into making many concessions, giving up its rights in Manchuria and Korea.  Roosevelt did not want the Russian Empire to expand and used the opportunity to lessen Russia's influence in the Far East.  During Russian Civil War both U.S. and U.K. sent expeditionary forces to Russia, to European Russia (Archangelsk) known as the Polar Bear Expedition and to Far Eastern Russia, Vladivostok.  Russian lives were lost at the hands of British and American troops.  There were countless other incidents and conflicts in which Russia was cast as an opponent by Western European countries.  Great Britain and the British Empire was the dominant power in the 19th Century while the 20th Century belonged to the United States.  Russia, has seen both Great Britain and the United States as its greatest adversaries for its own advancement and a rightful place in the world.
     When Gorbachev lost control of his government and Soviet Union fell apart, many Russians thought that this would be the time when America would step-in with help for Russia to establish a new democratic system.  But what happened instead was that only capitalists with business interests showed up to try to take advantage of the chaos and gain concessions.  As far as help to establish a new system, it didn't materialize.  Also, rather than welcoming the fact that communism had collapsed and had been ousted, there was still a show of strong mistrust on the U.S. and U.K. side, alienating Russia by not allowing it to become a partner in NATO.  Although NATO was originally established to fight the Soviet Bloc, since the Soviet Union was no more, many Russians naively thought that they could now be a part of the rest of Europe and not worry about any kind of a military alliance.  Instead, what we did was allow many of the former Soviet Bloc countries to become a part of NATO, building even a bigger bloc of countries that would now be part of an alliance against Russia!  Whether correctly or not, Russians see this as an act of adding insult to injury.  Russia's mistrust of the West has been around for a long time, and what we did after the collapse of the Soviet Union simply validated their belief that the West, the U.S. and U.K. in particular, was not to be trusted. 
     Most Western Europeans have never seen Russians as fellow Europeans.  Russians were always thought of as Eurasians or something of that nature.  They were not true Europeans.  They were crude, unlike the rest of the Western Europeans, therefore, Russia was not Europe, never was, never will be.  Russians are keenly aware of this attitude found in Europe.  They also believe that the British and Americans feel the same way.  During the height of the Soviet power, Russians were proud because they felt that the rest of the world had to contend with them.  Today, they feel as if no one really has any respect for Russia.  Putin, with his tough talk and military build-up has managed to regain some of that old "respect", or at least that is what some Russians believe.  That is why he can still stay in power.  If you ask an average Russian on the street what they think about Putin, that is what they will say.  They may not like him, but they will say that he has managed to gain Russia some respect in the world.
     What Putin has done and is doing is essentially taking Russia into the "empire mode."  What he is saying to the world is that, since you won't show us respect and accept us (admittance into NATO, etc.), we will take what we want.  Thus, he took Crimea and eastern part of Ukraine.  We Americans may not realize it or see it that way, but Russians seem to feel that we look down upon them.  They often say that it is an Anglo-Saxon trait to look down upon everyone, something that Great Britain was known for during its British Empire days.  America being an Anglo-Saxon nation, both the U.K. and the U.S. is seen by the Russians as being literally the same when it comes to attitude and mentality.  It is a simplistic view, but that is how the average Russian sees us.  Unfortunately, there is some truth in this.  Many of our so-called "experts" on Russia, the ones who advised the President, were also Russian haters!  Zbigniew Brzezinski was considered a Soviet expert and he openly hated Russians.  Condoleeza Rice may be a Soviet expert, put she clearly showed her dislike for Russians.
     If we are to successfully deal with Russians, we need to get off the high horse and try to deal with Russia earnestly.  I may personally dislike Tillerson, but if there is one man that seems to be able to get through to Russians it is our current Secretary of State.  Tillerson may have learned to deal with Russians and understands their mentality because of his experience in business dealings in Russia.  He apparently was highly successful as a businessman in Russia, so, it wouldn't be a stretch to think that he understands Russian mentality.  To deal successfully with Russians, like with anyone else, you have to win their trust first.  To win their trust, we have to show them by making concessions in certain areas that many may consider to be too much!  But having had the history that we have with Russia, the only way that we can deal with them is first win their trust!

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Understanding North Korean Mentality

     Just about a year and half ago, in early January 2016, I did a blog called "Vengeance is Mine" Romans 12:12.  In that blog, I talked about the importance of vengeance, i.e., seeking vengeance for wrong doing, and its role in the mentality and culture of Koreans.  This, of course, is not unique to Korean culture but to Asian culture in general.  Possibly the most famous and certainly one of the most popular Japanese historical events involved the act of vengeance as played out in the "Ako Incident" better known popularly as the story of the "Forty Seven Ronin".  Everyone is familiar with this story as it was made into several movies in Japan as well as more recently by Hollywood.  There are many similarities in this regard between Japanese and Korean cultures when it comes to the subject of vengeance.  It is, for the most part, considered a point of honor to seek vengeance for wrong doing or perceived wrong doing!
     The modern Korean (South Korean) pop culture has capitalized on this subject in their immensely popular TV soaps better known as K dramas.  Majority of K dramas, whether set in historical past or modern society, involve the subject of vengeance.  By Western standards, the Koreans appear to be obsessed with vengeance.  Naturally, the K dramas are somewhat exaggerating this particular aspect of Korean culture, after all, they are made for entertainment!  But, as the saying goes, where there is smoke, there is fire, and there is no doubt that the Korean culture places more importance on vengeance than the Western culture.  Don't get me wrong, our own American culture too has that element of "righting the wrong,"  i.e., seeking vengeance.  Our own pop culture has its share of stories involving retribution and what American Western does not have some of that element?  The launching of our war in Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 attack was an act of retribution, pure and simple.  The hunt for Osama Bin Laden was again and act of vengeance.  But in general, our attitude and obsession over seeking vengeance is not anywhere near what it is in Korean culture.
     If we are to successfully meet and negotiate with North Korea about the nuclear issue, we must remember their attitude and mentality in this regard.  They definitely do not see the world through the same looking glass and their attitude about seeking vengeance is also quite different from ours.  They have, since 1950, literally fed off their hatred for us.  They have used the hated United States as a reason to rebuild their country after the war and establish a strong military.  Their entire goal in building up the nuclear program is focused on using these weapons against us!  South Korea may be their enemy as well, but not quite in the same league as the United States.  South Korea is simply thought of as the puppet of the United States, the "running dogs" as they like to say.  The United States of America is the main focal point of their hatred, the main target for their nuclear weapons!  If we go back to 1945 when the division of Korea first took place, they have had more than 75 years to develop hatred for us!  That is an awful long time to develop a culture of hatred for one country!
     When dealing with North Korea, we must remember that they have very deep rooted hatred for us, that they blame all their problems on us!  For them, the destruction of the United States is top priority, something that will restore their "honor" and, of course, give them more power and influence in the world!  It may be completely unrealistic for a tiny country of less than 26 million people to think in those terms, but that is how they think!  We, on the other hand, may not like them, may think they are whacko, but we don't hate them with such passion and we are not seeking any sort of a revenge or retribution!  This makes for a very different mentality and one of the reasons why the two sides can't seem to have a meeting of the minds!  How can they, when they have such polar opposite minds!
     Unfortunately, although there may be brilliant minds advising our government how to deal with North Korea (at least I hope there are some smart folks!), none seem to really take into consideration the revenge factor.  It is not quite the same thing as dealing with the Iranians.  Iran may call us the "great Satan" and indeed not care for us, but their hatred for us is not quite as deep as that of North Korea.  Iran has not had a devastating war with millions of its people killed in the war for which they blame us.  Not quite the same situation.  Besides, we just gave them billions of dollars in that Nuke Deal!
     If we are to deal successfully with North Korea, we will have to capitulate in some way.  I think it is not only too late in time but also inappropriate to offer any sort of an apology.  A sincere apology is one way that a wrong can be corrected.  This is true in Japanese culture as well as in Korean culture.  If you sincerely offer your apology, show that you are really sorry, then your sins can be forgiven.  However, we did not commit any wrong doing against North Korea.  We came to help South Korea when North Korea invaded the south in June of 1950.  Sure it was a civil war, but we were committed to help South Korea, it was our responsibility.  So, there is nothing for us to apologize.  Since that avenue is closed, that leaves only one way that we can appease North Korea, and that is to offer economic help!  Yes, if we give them money as we gave to Iran on that Nuke Deal, North Korea will back off, there is no doubt about it.  But will they stop their nuclear weapons development?  Will Iran?  Probably neither country will stop all together and will continue their nuclear program secretly.  Iran is doing it now, not so secretly, claiming that their nuclear development is for peaceful purposes!
     I have a feeling that is the route that the Trump administration will take, i.e., lift sanctions and help North Korea economically in exchange for stopping their nuclear weapons program.  Is that a good thing?  Can we really trust North Korea?  Well.......let me put it another way.  Do we want another Iran Nuke Deal....this time with North Korea?  But then, what is the alternative besides going to war?  With Iran, we didn't have to go to war, Iran was really not in a position to attack anyone, despite all their threatening rhetoric.  So the so called Nuke Deal was a real puzzle! North Korea is a different story, a very difficult, different story!
    

Saturday, May 6, 2017

Kim Jong Un and the CIA Assassination Attempt?

     According to the latest information coming out of Pyongyang, CIA in concert with South Korean intelligence, attempted to assassinate Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on an undisclosed date during Obama Administration.  There were no details on exactly how and when this attempt took place, only that the nefarious act was foiled by the heroic North Korean counterintelligence and other parties loyal to Kim Jong Un's government. 
     At first it seemed a bit puzzling as to why this information was being divulged at this time, apparently years after the fact.  Supposedly this attempt took place under Obama and the former, and currently ousted and disgraced South Korean President Park.  But on second thought, it is easy to see why North Korea is issuing such "information" at this time.  Frankly, it is not even a very sophisticated form of misinformation/propaganda that is being disseminated by the North Koreans. It is a poorly disguised attempt at taking preventive measures, to forestall any attempt at Kim Jong Un's life, if there are any such plans at this time! By announcing that an attempt was made on his life, any such act now would immediately point an accusing finger at CIA and the South Koreans.
     Of course, it is a known fact that the CIA had attempted to assassinate various heads of state in the past, and perhaps even currently!  The famous or infamous attempt to assassinate Fidel Castro with an exploding cigar comes to mind, as well as Kennedy's attempt to recruit the Mafia to "eliminate" Castro!  Obviously, none of these attempts to get rid of Castro worked, it was old age that final got him!  But, CIA did manage to get rid of Ngo Dinh Diem of South Vietnam in 1963 with a "coupe."  There were also other heads of state that the CIA managed to remove through assassination, particularly in developing countries.  Several attempts were made to remove Qaddafi of Libya in the past and no doubt attempts had been made to remove others.  So, it is not so far-fetched to think that the CIA had not possibly made plans to eliminate Kim Jong Un as well.  However, I doubt seriously if there was any such attempt.  In order to carry out any kind of an assault or a clandestine assassination attempt, you have to have people on the ground and have access to the target.  North Korea being North Korea, it is practically impossible to get near their "leader" and it is very difficult to have people on the ground who can carry out the task.  The same goes for most Middle Eastern countries, that is why all those attempts at Qaddafi and other Arab leaders have been through air strikes!  Today, the sophisticated high tech drones are the main weapon for such attempts!
     What apparently has happened is that Kim Jong Un and his supporters are basically unsure as to what to expect from Washington.  I believe that Trump's recent remarks about willing to meet Kim Jong Un has thrown them off completely!  Remember all of the inflammatory and confrontational rhetoric that was coming out of Trump's camp even before the election and until very recently.  Add to that the deployment of nuclear sub and a naval task force, plus the completion of the set up of
THAAD anti missile system, all showed the aggressive approach that the new administration was taking.  Then all of a sudden Trump announces that he would be willing to meet with Kim and would be "honored" to do so?  This was confusing even to some Americans, imagine how it must have sounded to the North Koreans! 
     Some in the news media erroneously reported that if such a meeting took place, it would be the first time since the Korean War that a U.S. President met with a North Korean leader.  Well, they were wrong, they need to learn their history better!  I am forever amazed at the poor historical knowledge displayed by some in our news media as well as some of our politicians!  A U.S. President has never met with a North Korean leader, period!  No sitting U.S. President has ever met with Kim Il Song, his son Kim Jong Il, or the current leader Kim Jong Un!  So, if a meeting between Trump and Kim does take place, it would indeed be a historical meeting of pretty significant proportion!
     North Korea has been the epitome of a country that is paranoid from top to bottom.  Hearing that a U.S. President has said that he is willing to meet with their leader has really thrown them for a loop.  They have been the pariah, the unrecognized, disrespected country if there ever was one in the world!  Suddenly they are treated as a "normal" country by their arch enemy, the U.S. who is willing to talk with them!  No doubt their first reaction was that this was some sort of a ruse, that U.S. had some nasty plans in the making.
     The announcement that there was a CIA plot to assassinate Kim Jong Un is almost a childish attempt to establish a "preventive" measure against such an attempt.  If there was indeed such a plot that was foiled by the North Koreans, the announcement and accusations would have come out loud and clear immediately!  What this reaction by North Korea tells me is that they are unsure as to what is really going on.  They just want to make sure to be able to blame the U.S. and South Korea should something go wrong!
     Donald Trump prides himself in his ability to negotiate a deal, no matter what the circumstances or with who he is dealing.  We really don't know if he is truly capable of striking a deal with anyone as he believes.  So far, at least with fellow Americans, it has been 50/50, more or less.  But there hasn't been all that much taking place with his dealings with foreign leaders.   If anything, it will be interesting to see what happens should he meet with Kim Jong Un as he says he is willing to do.  But then again, will he really meet with the North Korean, or was it just one of those off the cuff remarks that he made?  Who knows?