In my earlier blog ("Understanding North Korea" September 7) I pointed out the historical influences on North Korean thinking, and how it was important to understand this aspect of North Korean mentality when dealing with them. Since that blog, some two weeks ago, North Korea has conducted more missile tests and even tested a nuclear bomb that our "experts" are conceding is of hydrogen bomb size! To top it all off, they just fired a second mid range missile over Hokkaido, Japan, causing mild panic within Japanese government. Firing a missile over Japanese territory is equivalent to invading not just Japanese air space, but actually committing a hostile act. What do you think will happen if Russia or some other country fires a couple of missiles over the U.S.? Keep in mind that when Soviet Union shot down a clearly identifiable Korean Air Lines plane with innocent civilians aboard, killing everyone, they justified it by saying that the KAL aircraft had violated Soviet air space. Earlier, when North Korea captured the U.S. spy ship USS Pueblo and held the crew hostage, it was because we had violated their boundary and entered their "space", according to them. North Korea does not recognize the two mile international boundary line, they stretch their boundary beyond that range! We, by the way, paid ransom to have our ship and crew released. Of course the American public was not told about the fact that we "paid off" the North Koreans!
So, now with all that is going on, we are still using the same approach as before! Our government is asking UN Security Council to act....kind of a joke. We are asking China and Russia (both permanent members of UN Security Council) to step up and do "something." We are also trying to level even heavier economic sanctions on North Korea than it is already facing. All of this sounds well and good, but it will not work! I think our government knows it, yet continues to pursue this route. Are we trying to drive North Korea into an act that would bring about war? There appears to be no attempt to open any sort of a direct dialogue with North Korea. Instead, we are asking China and Russia to do the heavy lifting. This is precisely what North Korea doesn't want. They want to be treated as an independent entity, to be dealt directly, not through some foreign power as China or Russia, making them out to be a vassal state! That is how North Korea is interpreting our actions and words. At the same time, neither China or Russia will do much to ease the situation. North Korea is a perfect "buffer," a proxy for them. North Korea has been surviving all these years through Chinese economic support, i.e., trading between the two countries which is estimated at around 85% of North Korea's economic trade. New sanctions, no matter how strict, will not impact North Korea like we think it will. Trading with China will continue as before. China and Korea have been trading partners for centuries, going back several thousand years! New economic sanctions will change nothing. By the way, even for South Korea, our ally, the biggest trading partner is China, not us!
We appear to be bound and determined to somehow resolve the North Korean issue with tough talk and tough sanctions. As the saying goes, talk is cheap, and as far as sanctions are concerned, they won't work. The common people in North Korea will suffer more, but the North Korean establishment will continue as before since their trade with China will go unabated, sanctions or no sanctions! Even now, much of the trading between China and North Korea is illegal, i.e., contraband goods going from one country to another. We have got to open a dialogue with North Korea directly if we want to resolve this on going issue that could easily lead to a disaster. We can't rely on China or Russia. Neither one of those countries really want to do anything to help us! Unless we are prepared to take the military option and go to war, we have to change our approach.
Saturday, September 16, 2017
Thursday, September 7, 2017
Understanding North Korea
If there is one thing that seems to be lacking (and that has been going for 70 years), is that we do not understand North Korea. We do not understand what motivates North Korea to do what it does, to be the way it is, to think the way it thinks. Of course, we are not alone in this. Even South Korea has a difficult time understanding North Korea, although they do have a better inkling as to what makes North Korea tick. What South Korea does understand is the underlying reasons for North Korea's behavior that is rooted in Korean mentality as a whole, both with north and south. However, owing to modernization, globalization, and economic prosperity, South Korea has removed itself from the mindset that appears to still control North Korean thinking and behavior. It all has to do with Korea's historical past, its ancient history as well as the more recent history.
Korea has a very ancient history dating back almost as far as China's. The first recorded Korean kingdom was called Gochosun (literally means old Chosun) which supposedly dates back to 2333BC when it was founded. Gochosun was a large kingdom, encompassing all of Korean peninsula and what is known today as Manchuria and part of Siberia. Gochosun lasted from 2333 BC until 108 BC when it was conquered by a smaller warlike kingdom which went on to become the great Koguryo Empire that ruled approximately the same large territory as Gochosun, from 37 BC until 668 BC. Both Gochosun and Koguryo were independent kingdoms and feared by China as well as other surrounding smaller states.
Koguryo was finally defeated by the combined forces of Silla from the south and Tang China from the northwest. Silla, a smaller kingdom in the southeast during Korea's great Three Kingdom Period, first conquered Paekche in the southwest, then with the help of China defeated Koguryo in 668 AD. After the collapse of Koguryo, there were a series of smaller Korean states until finally the Kingdom of Koryo was established 918 AD. Koryo was the name that was also used by Koguryo in its latter years, and it is the name from which the modern name Korea was derived. With the demise of Koguryo, the newly established kingdom of Koryo was no longer independent like its predecessors Gochosun and Koguryo. Koryo was a product of Silla's conquest of Koguryo which they accomplished with the help of China, so Koryo became the vassal state of Tang Dynasty China first, then a vassal of the Mongols when Mongols ruled China as Yuan Dynasty.
In 1392 Koryo became Chosun (or Yi) Dynasty and continued to be China's vassal state. The Japanese attempted the invasion of Chosun in 1592 (Imjin Wars 1592-98) and Chosun was able to repel the invasion with Chinese help. In 1636, the Manchus (Jurchens) invaded Chosen, and although the Manchus were repelled briefly with Chinese help, it wasn't long before China fell to the Manchus and therefore, Chosen became a vassal state of Manchus, the Ching Dynasty. So, in essence, Korea experienced existence as an independent kingdom only in very ancient times, during Gochosun and Koguryo. From the time that Koryo was established in 918, Korea was always a vassal state of China, whether it was Tang, Ming, Yuan, or Ching Dynasty! It was only for a very brief period from 1897 to 1910 that Korea declared itself an independent "Korean Empire", before Japan annexed Korea in 1910!
It may seem far-fetched, but part of the motivation that drives North Korea to behave in the way it does, constantly seeking recognition, is to get out from under the "cloud" so-to-speak, of being a vassal of some bigger power for much of its history! The very fact that we insist that China and Russia, especially China, "control" North Korea makes them all the more belligerent! Historically, it was always China that called the shots when it came to Korea, whether it was Koryo or Chosun. China (Ching Dynasty) even went so far as to "give up" Korea to Japan after the last Sino-Japanese War, as if Korea was nothing but a piece of real estate that China owned. That is why North Korea continues to insist that we deal directly with them, no China or Russia! We must recognize the fact that to North Korea, that is a very important and sensitive issue. They want to be recognized as an independent entity, not as someone under control of China or Russia. Until we recognize this factor, there will be no dialogue with North Korea.
South Korea, on the other hand, has managed to shed that complex of being a "vassal." Largely owing to its economic prosperity and technological advancement, South Korea does not feel the need to "prove" itself, to show its independence. Its biggest concern is competition on the international market with China and Japan! South Korean goods are well respected and they have cornered the market on electronics and cars in some parts of the world, as well as being the world's leading ship builders! Despite the presence of U.S. military bases and troops, South Korea does not consider itself a "vassal" of the U.S. Rather, it thinks of itself as a partner with the U.S. for regional security and trade. That is obviously not how North Korea sees things.
Is Kim Jong Un really as dangerous as he is portrayed by the media? I believe that he is indeed dangerous because he has what can be best described as "Mussolini Complex." Remember him, the one who wanted to re-create the great Roman Empire? Well, Kim wants to recreate the great Koguryo Empire that everyone in the region feared and respected. Koguryo was known as a great warrior state that was dominated by a warrior culture. Is he capable of launching an attack on South Korea, Japan, or even the United States, knowing that it will bring about a disastrous outcome, possibly his own demise? I believe he thinks he can somehow survive it all, that he is smarter than his enemies in more ways than one. That is what makes him so dangerous. He is not stupid, but he is delusional and he is obsessed with the notion of seeking "revenge" against those who had "wronged" North Korea. That would be mainly the United States and South Korea, but Japan and other countries are on the list as well!
Revenge is a very important element in the Asian culture. It may seem unrealistic in some cases and silly in others, to be so obsessed with revenge. But righting the wrong, seeking restitution for perceived or actual wrong doing is a very important part of the Asian makeup, mentality. As the countries become more technologically advanced and gain economic wealth, they seem to drift away from this sort of mindset, but nevertheless, it is there and plays an important role. In most Northeast Asian cultures, you are almost duty bound to seek "revenge" if a wrong has been committed against you and your family. This "revenge" seeking does not have to end in death or some sort of physical punishment or imprisonment. In most instances, even for the most serious offenses, if the offender admits to wrong doing and is willing to atone, and apologizes with sincerity, then the offender can be forgiven and "revenge" is considered to have been accomplished.
In their way of thinking, the North Koreans feel that a great wrong has been committed against them and continues to be committed by the U.S., South Korea, and others. Aside from many deaths and destruction of their country during the Korean War, there are other real or perceived wrong doings, especially by the U.S. So, North Korea is not only seeking to be treated as a sovereign state, but also seeks some sort of an apology or at least language that sounds like an apology from the U.S. No doubt an offer of massive economic aid from us will take care of the language part!
Korea has a very ancient history dating back almost as far as China's. The first recorded Korean kingdom was called Gochosun (literally means old Chosun) which supposedly dates back to 2333BC when it was founded. Gochosun was a large kingdom, encompassing all of Korean peninsula and what is known today as Manchuria and part of Siberia. Gochosun lasted from 2333 BC until 108 BC when it was conquered by a smaller warlike kingdom which went on to become the great Koguryo Empire that ruled approximately the same large territory as Gochosun, from 37 BC until 668 BC. Both Gochosun and Koguryo were independent kingdoms and feared by China as well as other surrounding smaller states.
Koguryo was finally defeated by the combined forces of Silla from the south and Tang China from the northwest. Silla, a smaller kingdom in the southeast during Korea's great Three Kingdom Period, first conquered Paekche in the southwest, then with the help of China defeated Koguryo in 668 AD. After the collapse of Koguryo, there were a series of smaller Korean states until finally the Kingdom of Koryo was established 918 AD. Koryo was the name that was also used by Koguryo in its latter years, and it is the name from which the modern name Korea was derived. With the demise of Koguryo, the newly established kingdom of Koryo was no longer independent like its predecessors Gochosun and Koguryo. Koryo was a product of Silla's conquest of Koguryo which they accomplished with the help of China, so Koryo became the vassal state of Tang Dynasty China first, then a vassal of the Mongols when Mongols ruled China as Yuan Dynasty.
In 1392 Koryo became Chosun (or Yi) Dynasty and continued to be China's vassal state. The Japanese attempted the invasion of Chosun in 1592 (Imjin Wars 1592-98) and Chosun was able to repel the invasion with Chinese help. In 1636, the Manchus (Jurchens) invaded Chosen, and although the Manchus were repelled briefly with Chinese help, it wasn't long before China fell to the Manchus and therefore, Chosen became a vassal state of Manchus, the Ching Dynasty. So, in essence, Korea experienced existence as an independent kingdom only in very ancient times, during Gochosun and Koguryo. From the time that Koryo was established in 918, Korea was always a vassal state of China, whether it was Tang, Ming, Yuan, or Ching Dynasty! It was only for a very brief period from 1897 to 1910 that Korea declared itself an independent "Korean Empire", before Japan annexed Korea in 1910!
It may seem far-fetched, but part of the motivation that drives North Korea to behave in the way it does, constantly seeking recognition, is to get out from under the "cloud" so-to-speak, of being a vassal of some bigger power for much of its history! The very fact that we insist that China and Russia, especially China, "control" North Korea makes them all the more belligerent! Historically, it was always China that called the shots when it came to Korea, whether it was Koryo or Chosun. China (Ching Dynasty) even went so far as to "give up" Korea to Japan after the last Sino-Japanese War, as if Korea was nothing but a piece of real estate that China owned. That is why North Korea continues to insist that we deal directly with them, no China or Russia! We must recognize the fact that to North Korea, that is a very important and sensitive issue. They want to be recognized as an independent entity, not as someone under control of China or Russia. Until we recognize this factor, there will be no dialogue with North Korea.
South Korea, on the other hand, has managed to shed that complex of being a "vassal." Largely owing to its economic prosperity and technological advancement, South Korea does not feel the need to "prove" itself, to show its independence. Its biggest concern is competition on the international market with China and Japan! South Korean goods are well respected and they have cornered the market on electronics and cars in some parts of the world, as well as being the world's leading ship builders! Despite the presence of U.S. military bases and troops, South Korea does not consider itself a "vassal" of the U.S. Rather, it thinks of itself as a partner with the U.S. for regional security and trade. That is obviously not how North Korea sees things.
Is Kim Jong Un really as dangerous as he is portrayed by the media? I believe that he is indeed dangerous because he has what can be best described as "Mussolini Complex." Remember him, the one who wanted to re-create the great Roman Empire? Well, Kim wants to recreate the great Koguryo Empire that everyone in the region feared and respected. Koguryo was known as a great warrior state that was dominated by a warrior culture. Is he capable of launching an attack on South Korea, Japan, or even the United States, knowing that it will bring about a disastrous outcome, possibly his own demise? I believe he thinks he can somehow survive it all, that he is smarter than his enemies in more ways than one. That is what makes him so dangerous. He is not stupid, but he is delusional and he is obsessed with the notion of seeking "revenge" against those who had "wronged" North Korea. That would be mainly the United States and South Korea, but Japan and other countries are on the list as well!
Revenge is a very important element in the Asian culture. It may seem unrealistic in some cases and silly in others, to be so obsessed with revenge. But righting the wrong, seeking restitution for perceived or actual wrong doing is a very important part of the Asian makeup, mentality. As the countries become more technologically advanced and gain economic wealth, they seem to drift away from this sort of mindset, but nevertheless, it is there and plays an important role. In most Northeast Asian cultures, you are almost duty bound to seek "revenge" if a wrong has been committed against you and your family. This "revenge" seeking does not have to end in death or some sort of physical punishment or imprisonment. In most instances, even for the most serious offenses, if the offender admits to wrong doing and is willing to atone, and apologizes with sincerity, then the offender can be forgiven and "revenge" is considered to have been accomplished.
In their way of thinking, the North Koreans feel that a great wrong has been committed against them and continues to be committed by the U.S., South Korea, and others. Aside from many deaths and destruction of their country during the Korean War, there are other real or perceived wrong doings, especially by the U.S. So, North Korea is not only seeking to be treated as a sovereign state, but also seeks some sort of an apology or at least language that sounds like an apology from the U.S. No doubt an offer of massive economic aid from us will take care of the language part!
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