In my earlier blog ("Understanding North Korea" September 7) I pointed out the historical influences on North Korean thinking, and how it was important to understand this aspect of North Korean mentality when dealing with them. Since that blog, some two weeks ago, North Korea has conducted more missile tests and even tested a nuclear bomb that our "experts" are conceding is of hydrogen bomb size! To top it all off, they just fired a second mid range missile over Hokkaido, Japan, causing mild panic within Japanese government. Firing a missile over Japanese territory is equivalent to invading not just Japanese air space, but actually committing a hostile act. What do you think will happen if Russia or some other country fires a couple of missiles over the U.S.? Keep in mind that when Soviet Union shot down a clearly identifiable Korean Air Lines plane with innocent civilians aboard, killing everyone, they justified it by saying that the KAL aircraft had violated Soviet air space. Earlier, when North Korea captured the U.S. spy ship USS Pueblo and held the crew hostage, it was because we had violated their boundary and entered their "space", according to them. North Korea does not recognize the two mile international boundary line, they stretch their boundary beyond that range! We, by the way, paid ransom to have our ship and crew released. Of course the American public was not told about the fact that we "paid off" the North Koreans!
So, now with all that is going on, we are still using the same approach as before! Our government is asking UN Security Council to act....kind of a joke. We are asking China and Russia (both permanent members of UN Security Council) to step up and do "something." We are also trying to level even heavier economic sanctions on North Korea than it is already facing. All of this sounds well and good, but it will not work! I think our government knows it, yet continues to pursue this route. Are we trying to drive North Korea into an act that would bring about war? There appears to be no attempt to open any sort of a direct dialogue with North Korea. Instead, we are asking China and Russia to do the heavy lifting. This is precisely what North Korea doesn't want. They want to be treated as an independent entity, to be dealt directly, not through some foreign power as China or Russia, making them out to be a vassal state! That is how North Korea is interpreting our actions and words. At the same time, neither China or Russia will do much to ease the situation. North Korea is a perfect "buffer," a proxy for them. North Korea has been surviving all these years through Chinese economic support, i.e., trading between the two countries which is estimated at around 85% of North Korea's economic trade. New sanctions, no matter how strict, will not impact North Korea like we think it will. Trading with China will continue as before. China and Korea have been trading partners for centuries, going back several thousand years! New economic sanctions will change nothing. By the way, even for South Korea, our ally, the biggest trading partner is China, not us!
We appear to be bound and determined to somehow resolve the North Korean issue with tough talk and tough sanctions. As the saying goes, talk is cheap, and as far as sanctions are concerned, they won't work. The common people in North Korea will suffer more, but the North Korean establishment will continue as before since their trade with China will go unabated, sanctions or no sanctions! Even now, much of the trading between China and North Korea is illegal, i.e., contraband goods going from one country to another. We have got to open a dialogue with North Korea directly if we want to resolve this on going issue that could easily lead to a disaster. We can't rely on China or Russia. Neither one of those countries really want to do anything to help us! Unless we are prepared to take the military option and go to war, we have to change our approach.
Saturday, September 16, 2017
Thursday, September 7, 2017
Understanding North Korea
If there is one thing that seems to be lacking (and that has been going for 70 years), is that we do not understand North Korea. We do not understand what motivates North Korea to do what it does, to be the way it is, to think the way it thinks. Of course, we are not alone in this. Even South Korea has a difficult time understanding North Korea, although they do have a better inkling as to what makes North Korea tick. What South Korea does understand is the underlying reasons for North Korea's behavior that is rooted in Korean mentality as a whole, both with north and south. However, owing to modernization, globalization, and economic prosperity, South Korea has removed itself from the mindset that appears to still control North Korean thinking and behavior. It all has to do with Korea's historical past, its ancient history as well as the more recent history.
Korea has a very ancient history dating back almost as far as China's. The first recorded Korean kingdom was called Gochosun (literally means old Chosun) which supposedly dates back to 2333BC when it was founded. Gochosun was a large kingdom, encompassing all of Korean peninsula and what is known today as Manchuria and part of Siberia. Gochosun lasted from 2333 BC until 108 BC when it was conquered by a smaller warlike kingdom which went on to become the great Koguryo Empire that ruled approximately the same large territory as Gochosun, from 37 BC until 668 BC. Both Gochosun and Koguryo were independent kingdoms and feared by China as well as other surrounding smaller states.
Koguryo was finally defeated by the combined forces of Silla from the south and Tang China from the northwest. Silla, a smaller kingdom in the southeast during Korea's great Three Kingdom Period, first conquered Paekche in the southwest, then with the help of China defeated Koguryo in 668 AD. After the collapse of Koguryo, there were a series of smaller Korean states until finally the Kingdom of Koryo was established 918 AD. Koryo was the name that was also used by Koguryo in its latter years, and it is the name from which the modern name Korea was derived. With the demise of Koguryo, the newly established kingdom of Koryo was no longer independent like its predecessors Gochosun and Koguryo. Koryo was a product of Silla's conquest of Koguryo which they accomplished with the help of China, so Koryo became the vassal state of Tang Dynasty China first, then a vassal of the Mongols when Mongols ruled China as Yuan Dynasty.
In 1392 Koryo became Chosun (or Yi) Dynasty and continued to be China's vassal state. The Japanese attempted the invasion of Chosun in 1592 (Imjin Wars 1592-98) and Chosun was able to repel the invasion with Chinese help. In 1636, the Manchus (Jurchens) invaded Chosen, and although the Manchus were repelled briefly with Chinese help, it wasn't long before China fell to the Manchus and therefore, Chosen became a vassal state of Manchus, the Ching Dynasty. So, in essence, Korea experienced existence as an independent kingdom only in very ancient times, during Gochosun and Koguryo. From the time that Koryo was established in 918, Korea was always a vassal state of China, whether it was Tang, Ming, Yuan, or Ching Dynasty! It was only for a very brief period from 1897 to 1910 that Korea declared itself an independent "Korean Empire", before Japan annexed Korea in 1910!
It may seem far-fetched, but part of the motivation that drives North Korea to behave in the way it does, constantly seeking recognition, is to get out from under the "cloud" so-to-speak, of being a vassal of some bigger power for much of its history! The very fact that we insist that China and Russia, especially China, "control" North Korea makes them all the more belligerent! Historically, it was always China that called the shots when it came to Korea, whether it was Koryo or Chosun. China (Ching Dynasty) even went so far as to "give up" Korea to Japan after the last Sino-Japanese War, as if Korea was nothing but a piece of real estate that China owned. That is why North Korea continues to insist that we deal directly with them, no China or Russia! We must recognize the fact that to North Korea, that is a very important and sensitive issue. They want to be recognized as an independent entity, not as someone under control of China or Russia. Until we recognize this factor, there will be no dialogue with North Korea.
South Korea, on the other hand, has managed to shed that complex of being a "vassal." Largely owing to its economic prosperity and technological advancement, South Korea does not feel the need to "prove" itself, to show its independence. Its biggest concern is competition on the international market with China and Japan! South Korean goods are well respected and they have cornered the market on electronics and cars in some parts of the world, as well as being the world's leading ship builders! Despite the presence of U.S. military bases and troops, South Korea does not consider itself a "vassal" of the U.S. Rather, it thinks of itself as a partner with the U.S. for regional security and trade. That is obviously not how North Korea sees things.
Is Kim Jong Un really as dangerous as he is portrayed by the media? I believe that he is indeed dangerous because he has what can be best described as "Mussolini Complex." Remember him, the one who wanted to re-create the great Roman Empire? Well, Kim wants to recreate the great Koguryo Empire that everyone in the region feared and respected. Koguryo was known as a great warrior state that was dominated by a warrior culture. Is he capable of launching an attack on South Korea, Japan, or even the United States, knowing that it will bring about a disastrous outcome, possibly his own demise? I believe he thinks he can somehow survive it all, that he is smarter than his enemies in more ways than one. That is what makes him so dangerous. He is not stupid, but he is delusional and he is obsessed with the notion of seeking "revenge" against those who had "wronged" North Korea. That would be mainly the United States and South Korea, but Japan and other countries are on the list as well!
Revenge is a very important element in the Asian culture. It may seem unrealistic in some cases and silly in others, to be so obsessed with revenge. But righting the wrong, seeking restitution for perceived or actual wrong doing is a very important part of the Asian makeup, mentality. As the countries become more technologically advanced and gain economic wealth, they seem to drift away from this sort of mindset, but nevertheless, it is there and plays an important role. In most Northeast Asian cultures, you are almost duty bound to seek "revenge" if a wrong has been committed against you and your family. This "revenge" seeking does not have to end in death or some sort of physical punishment or imprisonment. In most instances, even for the most serious offenses, if the offender admits to wrong doing and is willing to atone, and apologizes with sincerity, then the offender can be forgiven and "revenge" is considered to have been accomplished.
In their way of thinking, the North Koreans feel that a great wrong has been committed against them and continues to be committed by the U.S., South Korea, and others. Aside from many deaths and destruction of their country during the Korean War, there are other real or perceived wrong doings, especially by the U.S. So, North Korea is not only seeking to be treated as a sovereign state, but also seeks some sort of an apology or at least language that sounds like an apology from the U.S. No doubt an offer of massive economic aid from us will take care of the language part!
Korea has a very ancient history dating back almost as far as China's. The first recorded Korean kingdom was called Gochosun (literally means old Chosun) which supposedly dates back to 2333BC when it was founded. Gochosun was a large kingdom, encompassing all of Korean peninsula and what is known today as Manchuria and part of Siberia. Gochosun lasted from 2333 BC until 108 BC when it was conquered by a smaller warlike kingdom which went on to become the great Koguryo Empire that ruled approximately the same large territory as Gochosun, from 37 BC until 668 BC. Both Gochosun and Koguryo were independent kingdoms and feared by China as well as other surrounding smaller states.
Koguryo was finally defeated by the combined forces of Silla from the south and Tang China from the northwest. Silla, a smaller kingdom in the southeast during Korea's great Three Kingdom Period, first conquered Paekche in the southwest, then with the help of China defeated Koguryo in 668 AD. After the collapse of Koguryo, there were a series of smaller Korean states until finally the Kingdom of Koryo was established 918 AD. Koryo was the name that was also used by Koguryo in its latter years, and it is the name from which the modern name Korea was derived. With the demise of Koguryo, the newly established kingdom of Koryo was no longer independent like its predecessors Gochosun and Koguryo. Koryo was a product of Silla's conquest of Koguryo which they accomplished with the help of China, so Koryo became the vassal state of Tang Dynasty China first, then a vassal of the Mongols when Mongols ruled China as Yuan Dynasty.
In 1392 Koryo became Chosun (or Yi) Dynasty and continued to be China's vassal state. The Japanese attempted the invasion of Chosun in 1592 (Imjin Wars 1592-98) and Chosun was able to repel the invasion with Chinese help. In 1636, the Manchus (Jurchens) invaded Chosen, and although the Manchus were repelled briefly with Chinese help, it wasn't long before China fell to the Manchus and therefore, Chosen became a vassal state of Manchus, the Ching Dynasty. So, in essence, Korea experienced existence as an independent kingdom only in very ancient times, during Gochosun and Koguryo. From the time that Koryo was established in 918, Korea was always a vassal state of China, whether it was Tang, Ming, Yuan, or Ching Dynasty! It was only for a very brief period from 1897 to 1910 that Korea declared itself an independent "Korean Empire", before Japan annexed Korea in 1910!
It may seem far-fetched, but part of the motivation that drives North Korea to behave in the way it does, constantly seeking recognition, is to get out from under the "cloud" so-to-speak, of being a vassal of some bigger power for much of its history! The very fact that we insist that China and Russia, especially China, "control" North Korea makes them all the more belligerent! Historically, it was always China that called the shots when it came to Korea, whether it was Koryo or Chosun. China (Ching Dynasty) even went so far as to "give up" Korea to Japan after the last Sino-Japanese War, as if Korea was nothing but a piece of real estate that China owned. That is why North Korea continues to insist that we deal directly with them, no China or Russia! We must recognize the fact that to North Korea, that is a very important and sensitive issue. They want to be recognized as an independent entity, not as someone under control of China or Russia. Until we recognize this factor, there will be no dialogue with North Korea.
South Korea, on the other hand, has managed to shed that complex of being a "vassal." Largely owing to its economic prosperity and technological advancement, South Korea does not feel the need to "prove" itself, to show its independence. Its biggest concern is competition on the international market with China and Japan! South Korean goods are well respected and they have cornered the market on electronics and cars in some parts of the world, as well as being the world's leading ship builders! Despite the presence of U.S. military bases and troops, South Korea does not consider itself a "vassal" of the U.S. Rather, it thinks of itself as a partner with the U.S. for regional security and trade. That is obviously not how North Korea sees things.
Is Kim Jong Un really as dangerous as he is portrayed by the media? I believe that he is indeed dangerous because he has what can be best described as "Mussolini Complex." Remember him, the one who wanted to re-create the great Roman Empire? Well, Kim wants to recreate the great Koguryo Empire that everyone in the region feared and respected. Koguryo was known as a great warrior state that was dominated by a warrior culture. Is he capable of launching an attack on South Korea, Japan, or even the United States, knowing that it will bring about a disastrous outcome, possibly his own demise? I believe he thinks he can somehow survive it all, that he is smarter than his enemies in more ways than one. That is what makes him so dangerous. He is not stupid, but he is delusional and he is obsessed with the notion of seeking "revenge" against those who had "wronged" North Korea. That would be mainly the United States and South Korea, but Japan and other countries are on the list as well!
Revenge is a very important element in the Asian culture. It may seem unrealistic in some cases and silly in others, to be so obsessed with revenge. But righting the wrong, seeking restitution for perceived or actual wrong doing is a very important part of the Asian makeup, mentality. As the countries become more technologically advanced and gain economic wealth, they seem to drift away from this sort of mindset, but nevertheless, it is there and plays an important role. In most Northeast Asian cultures, you are almost duty bound to seek "revenge" if a wrong has been committed against you and your family. This "revenge" seeking does not have to end in death or some sort of physical punishment or imprisonment. In most instances, even for the most serious offenses, if the offender admits to wrong doing and is willing to atone, and apologizes with sincerity, then the offender can be forgiven and "revenge" is considered to have been accomplished.
In their way of thinking, the North Koreans feel that a great wrong has been committed against them and continues to be committed by the U.S., South Korea, and others. Aside from many deaths and destruction of their country during the Korean War, there are other real or perceived wrong doings, especially by the U.S. So, North Korea is not only seeking to be treated as a sovereign state, but also seeks some sort of an apology or at least language that sounds like an apology from the U.S. No doubt an offer of massive economic aid from us will take care of the language part!
Monday, July 31, 2017
Our Changing View of North Korea
When I first blogged on North Korea several years ago, I mainly talked about the vicious Kim family dynasty that has ruled that country since its beginning more than 70 years ago. Later, as various incidents took place, I blogged on specific issues like the poisoning of Kim Jong Un's half brother in Malaysia, but mostly it was about their nuclear development. I am certainly no seer or claim to have any special knowledge of North Korea, but even with what I know, I was able to determine that their nuclear weapons development was far ahead of what our "experts" kept saying. When North Korea finally tested a hydrogen bomb, our experts said that it was just a large atomic bomb, not a hydrogen bomb. When they tested their missiles and claimed that they had ICBMs, we "pooh-poohed" the whole thing and said they were incapable of developing ICBMs. Throughout, it seems that our experts on North Korea were determined to convince the American public that North Korea was just incapable of developing sophisticated weaponry such as nuclear devices and long range missiles. Short range SCUD type missiles, we agreed that they could make....perhaps even mid range missiles. But long range missiles, no way.
In one of my blogs, I said that they had ICBMs and could deliver nuclear devices to our shores. At that time (about a year ago), everyone in our government said that they did not have the capability. As Trump put it so emphatically only a few months ago, they will in no way develop the capability, we will not allow it! But now, only a few months later, it seems everyone is singing a different tune. The latest assessment from the same experts who had earlier said North Korea was incapable of developing ICBMs, is that they have missiles that can not only reach Chicago, but possibly even New York! This is a complete turn-around from earlier statements about North Korea's capabilities!
What changed? Why did we insist earlier that North Korea did not have these weapons? During the past several years, while news would appear that North Korea was testing nuclear devices or new missiles, we kept saying that most of the tests were failures and that they simply did not have the know-how to make things work. To be quite honest, it even smacked of racism, that North Koreans just did not have the brains or the ability to develop advanced weapons. During World War Two our propaganda machine churned out the same kind of racist-tainted information about Japan's ability to produce sophisticated weapons. It was widely rumored that the famous Japanese fighter plane, the Mitsubishi Zero, was actually designed by Germans. In other words, the Japanese were not capable of coming up on their own with such an advanced and complicated design. So it seems we have been doing the same thing with North Korea. After all, they are a small, backward Asian country. How could they come up with such advanced technology on their own. Surely the Russians must have had a hand in it! But now, it seems things changed completely.
Could it be that our government has finally realized that North Korea will not just go away if we ignore it? Has there been a change of the guards, so-to-speak, with the "experts" in our government?
I am not too sure what is happening, but I suspect that it is mostly a realization that perhaps North Korea is a real threat and that our government better be ready to "answer" to the public, should the worst happen. It may also be the realization that neither China or Russia are really interested in disarming North Korea. It is not that they want a war in the region, it is simply that they want a buffer in the form of a threatening North Korea. Contrary to some who think China and Russia do not object to the reunification of north and south, neither China or Russia want a unified Korea. Should reunification take place, perhaps there will be economic chaos at first and possibly even political unrest. But eventually things will settle down and an economically and militarily powerful unified Korea will emerge. It will without a doubt be a democratic government such as the one in South Korea, a government that will be allied with the U.S. Korea will not abandon its military and economic ties with the U.S., not with the two giants to their north, Russia and China. This will put U.S. military presence right on the Chinese and Russian border! No, China and Russia definitely do not want that.
Although North Korea's large million plus army is a major threat on the ground, it is not as big a threat as it may seem. Should hostilities break out between north and south, it is possible that large numbers of North Korea's feared People's Army will defect! Defectors from the north consistently tell stories of the unhappy state of North Korean troops. Although they are better fed than the general population, it is still no picnic, and they are not completely stupid. They don't all believe in the communist propaganda that is daily churned out by the system. There are constantly defectors from the People's Army who risk their lives crossing the DMZ. So, it is very probable that a large number of troops will defect on the battle field.
One of the reasons that Chang Kai Sheik's Nationalist Army lost to Mao's People's Army was because of defections. The Nationalist Army developed a reputation for being a poor fighting force, that is because the morale was low and the average soldier did not believe in what they were fighting for....i.e., the Nationalist cause. In contrast, Mao's troops had high morale and believed in their cause. The Nationalist's defected almost enmass....by divisions, including their generals! The same thing could happen with the North Korean army. When you consider that since the Armistice was signed in 1953, there has never been a defector from the south going north (no Koreans, but there were a few misguided Americans!), but thousands of defectors from the north to the south, despite the extreme danger involved in crossing the DMZ. It is not inconceivable that mass defections would take place if the opportunity presents itself to the North Koreans. I am not saying that it is going to happen, but it is a possibility, Donald Rumsfeld's words notwithstanding that "North Koreans will fight to the last man, woman, and child." So, it isn't so much the North Korean army that is a problem, despite its huge size and fearsome reputation. It is their nuclear arsenal and their ICBMs that now our "experts" concede that they can reach our shores, all the way to the East Coast!
In one of my blogs, I said that they had ICBMs and could deliver nuclear devices to our shores. At that time (about a year ago), everyone in our government said that they did not have the capability. As Trump put it so emphatically only a few months ago, they will in no way develop the capability, we will not allow it! But now, only a few months later, it seems everyone is singing a different tune. The latest assessment from the same experts who had earlier said North Korea was incapable of developing ICBMs, is that they have missiles that can not only reach Chicago, but possibly even New York! This is a complete turn-around from earlier statements about North Korea's capabilities!
What changed? Why did we insist earlier that North Korea did not have these weapons? During the past several years, while news would appear that North Korea was testing nuclear devices or new missiles, we kept saying that most of the tests were failures and that they simply did not have the know-how to make things work. To be quite honest, it even smacked of racism, that North Koreans just did not have the brains or the ability to develop advanced weapons. During World War Two our propaganda machine churned out the same kind of racist-tainted information about Japan's ability to produce sophisticated weapons. It was widely rumored that the famous Japanese fighter plane, the Mitsubishi Zero, was actually designed by Germans. In other words, the Japanese were not capable of coming up on their own with such an advanced and complicated design. So it seems we have been doing the same thing with North Korea. After all, they are a small, backward Asian country. How could they come up with such advanced technology on their own. Surely the Russians must have had a hand in it! But now, it seems things changed completely.
Could it be that our government has finally realized that North Korea will not just go away if we ignore it? Has there been a change of the guards, so-to-speak, with the "experts" in our government?
I am not too sure what is happening, but I suspect that it is mostly a realization that perhaps North Korea is a real threat and that our government better be ready to "answer" to the public, should the worst happen. It may also be the realization that neither China or Russia are really interested in disarming North Korea. It is not that they want a war in the region, it is simply that they want a buffer in the form of a threatening North Korea. Contrary to some who think China and Russia do not object to the reunification of north and south, neither China or Russia want a unified Korea. Should reunification take place, perhaps there will be economic chaos at first and possibly even political unrest. But eventually things will settle down and an economically and militarily powerful unified Korea will emerge. It will without a doubt be a democratic government such as the one in South Korea, a government that will be allied with the U.S. Korea will not abandon its military and economic ties with the U.S., not with the two giants to their north, Russia and China. This will put U.S. military presence right on the Chinese and Russian border! No, China and Russia definitely do not want that.
Although North Korea's large million plus army is a major threat on the ground, it is not as big a threat as it may seem. Should hostilities break out between north and south, it is possible that large numbers of North Korea's feared People's Army will defect! Defectors from the north consistently tell stories of the unhappy state of North Korean troops. Although they are better fed than the general population, it is still no picnic, and they are not completely stupid. They don't all believe in the communist propaganda that is daily churned out by the system. There are constantly defectors from the People's Army who risk their lives crossing the DMZ. So, it is very probable that a large number of troops will defect on the battle field.
One of the reasons that Chang Kai Sheik's Nationalist Army lost to Mao's People's Army was because of defections. The Nationalist Army developed a reputation for being a poor fighting force, that is because the morale was low and the average soldier did not believe in what they were fighting for....i.e., the Nationalist cause. In contrast, Mao's troops had high morale and believed in their cause. The Nationalist's defected almost enmass....by divisions, including their generals! The same thing could happen with the North Korean army. When you consider that since the Armistice was signed in 1953, there has never been a defector from the south going north (no Koreans, but there were a few misguided Americans!), but thousands of defectors from the north to the south, despite the extreme danger involved in crossing the DMZ. It is not inconceivable that mass defections would take place if the opportunity presents itself to the North Koreans. I am not saying that it is going to happen, but it is a possibility, Donald Rumsfeld's words notwithstanding that "North Koreans will fight to the last man, woman, and child." So, it isn't so much the North Korean army that is a problem, despite its huge size and fearsome reputation. It is their nuclear arsenal and their ICBMs that now our "experts" concede that they can reach our shores, all the way to the East Coast!
Friday, July 21, 2017
Our Longest War - Afghanistan!
Our war in Afghanistan is the longest war that we have been involved in our history. We are now going into our 17th year of that war and there appears to be no end in sight! Afghanistan has had a long history of wars, dating back centuries. In the 19th Century the Great British Empire tried to control that entire region. The British Empire was the largest and most powerful empire in the world, unchallenged by any other nation or empires at that time. A good portion of the world was under British rule or its influence. It was at this time that the phrase, "the sun never sets on the British Empire" was coined. No doubt the British felt that they could handle Afghanistan without much problem. To their dismay, the British became embroiled in what appeared to be a never ending conflict. Ultimately, the British were able to end the conflict by some backdoor deal making and striking a compromise, not a military victory! In the late 20th Century, 1979 to be more precise, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. What Kremlin thought would be a quick fix if they threw their military might at the rag-tag Afghan fighters, turned into a never ending war. Ten years later, after heavy fighting and much suffering and loss of life, the Soviet Union was forced to pull out of Afghanistan. Do doubt the involvement in that unpopular war in part helped to bring about the downfall of the Soviet Union.
A little over a decade after the Soviet departure from that land, the United States launched its invasion of Afghanistan. There may be those who will disagree with the belief that the invasion was necessary, but given the situation at time, the United States had little choice. The horrific 9/11 attack was launched by members of Al Qaeda, the terror group that was led by Osama bin Laden and based in Afghanistan. The Taliban that ruled about 80% of the country provided sanctuary to Al Qaeda. They were in fact, partnered with the terror organization. More lives were lost in the 9/11 attack than in the 1941 Pearl Harbor attack! Opponents of the Afghanistan invasion blame George W. Bush for getting us embroiled in that country, but Bush really had no choice. What was he supposed to do? Negotiate with Osama bin Laden, the man who openly swore to destroy the United States? Given the circumstances, any other president would have done the same thing. Hindsight is always 20/20, and George W. is a convenient target, but his decision, under the circumstances, was not wrong. America had to do something, and the man responsible for the 9/11 attack and his organization were in Afghanistan.
What followed the initial invasion of Afghanistan by our Special Operations, particularly those Army Special Forces teams that partnered with various Northern Alliance groups, was nothing short of spectacular. The surprisingly small number of American soldiers were able to lead the Northern Alliance groups to an unprecedented rout of Taliban and Al Qaeda forces in an amazingly short space of time. Unfortunately, after the spectacular and dramatic victory over Taliban and Al Qaeda, we shifted gears and changed our policy and tactics and the nature of the war changed. We poured-in ground troops and equipment and began conducting a conventional war, the very same kind of war that did not work for the Soviets! Apparently, we did not learn anything from the Soviet experience that took place earlier! So, like the Soviets, we too began to get bogged down. We tried to extricate ourselves by periodically downsizing our presence, but all it did was provide a "yo-yo" effect and required "surges" of increase in troop strength. Things just went from bad to worst!
So what went wrong? Aside from the fact that we unnecessarily shifted gears and increased troops strength and changed from unconventional to conventional warfare, we changed focus. We should have stayed with the unconventional warfare and with the goal of getting Osama bin Laden and destroying Al Qaeda and Taliban. Instead, we got involved in "nation building" and conducting a large scale conventional war. We did exactly the same thing in Vietnam, and we all know how that ended! However, the problem is not just simply military tactics and or political decisions involving "nation building," etc. The problem goes much deeper. It has to do with what has been taking place both with Pentagon's approach to fighting wars and with the American people's attitude and mentality when it comes to wars since the Korean War.
If there ever was such a thing as a "popular" war, it was World War Two. Perhaps "popular" is not the right word to use, but the majority of the American population at that time supported the war effort and believed that we should destroy the enemy. People understood that lives would be lost and although it was terrible, it was something that had to be accepted in time of war. Korean War was the first "unpopular" war and Americans wanted to know why we had to engage in a war far away when our country was not threatened directly. There was not anywhere near the kind of support or understanding that existed during World War Two among the population. In fact, there was no public support and there was an outcry to stop our involvement! Fortunately, the Korean War lasted only three years, a relatively short war and our boys were returned home. A little over a decade after the ceasefire agreement was signed at Panmunjom, we began our involvement in Vietnam. Actually our involvement in Vietnam took place even earlier, shortly after the ceasefire in Korea. First American combat casualty in Vietnam took place in 1958.
America carried on an unconventional warfare with Special Forces and other Army and Marine advisors in Vietnam from around 1958 until 1965 when President Johnson decided to escalate the war and sent in conventional forces. Prior to this, in 1963, CIA engineered a coupe in which the unpopular South Vietnamese president was removed by assassination. Yep, we meddled in their elections before elections even took place! Those were "low tech" days and no computer hacking, just assassinations. In the early 1970s "Vietnam-ization" (abandonment of our ally) took place and in 1975 the Republic of South Vietnam was no more. Materially (in terms of equipment) we were far superior to the black pajama clad Viet Cong and later the North Vietnamese Army, the NVA. Our troops were better trained, better equipped, yet we couldn't defeat them. Although we had successes on the battlefield, they just kept coming back time and time again. Technically we were superior, but tactically, we were inferior! There was no cohesiveness in our fighting units. Our soldiers and Marines were deployed for a year, then rotated back out of the country and new soldiers and Marines would replace them. There was no continuity or institutional memory with enlisted personnel as well as officers. Once you served a tour in Vietnam, you did not have to go back. Only those who volunteered served more than one tour. Vietnam War was fought on our side with troops that either served for one year or even less, sometimes just a six month TDY tour! In contrast, the Viet Cong and the NVA were there for the duration! They did not serve a one year tour and then return home!
We have had the same situation in Afghanistan. Our soldiers and Marines would deploy for a year, then return home. Many of the combat units would redeploy after a while and some soldiers and Marines end up serving multiple tours, but not with the, the same squad or platoon or company. In other words, despite troops with multiple tours, there is no continuity. Even at the higher level there is no continuity. In the past 15 years we have had 17 different Generals or Admirals in charge of our war in Afghanistan! You can't expect true cohesiveness or any institutional memory when you change personnel so often. During World War Two, soldiers and Marines served for the duration of the war, that was four years if you were in the service in 1941 when we entered the war! Yes, troops were rotated out of combat zone periodically, but as a unit, not individually. The only way you could leave was if you received a "million dollar wound," then you would leave the combat zone for good! The troops in Europe had one Supreme Commander the whole war, Eisenhower. Those in the Pacific had Nimitz on one side and McArthur on the other, also for the whole war!
Pentagon is finally beginning to realize that you cannot fight a war and constantly change personnel and leadership. There has to be some continuity in personnel for a unit to have true cohesiveness. But what is the solution? We can't very well deploy our troops for the duration of the war in Afghanistan! Can you imagine if we had kept the same Army and Marine infantry units in Afghanistan for the last 16 years! We tried that in Vietnam, many of the initial Army and Marine units that arrived in 1965 stayed the whole duration until they were pulled out for "Vietnam-ization" in the early 1970s. But, replacement of troops had to be made constantly during their stay, since the individual soldier's or Marine's one year tour would come to an end and they would leave. So, when those units left Vietnam, they were not composed of the same personnel, the same commanders!
Believe it or not, there is some talk about hiring mercenaries to do the work in Afghanistan! There is talk of hiring veteran Europeans and Americans who are willing to serve in Afghanistan to train and advise Afghan National Army and other troops. They would be paid substantially for their work, something in the neighborhood of $600 a day! They would remain in Afghanistan for the duration, for however long they are needed. This would remove the need for deploying our army and Marine units and would supposedly stop our public from voicing opposition to our involvement in that country. I don't know, sounds kind of crazy. But, as I said, it is seriously being considered and discussed in our government!
A little over a decade after the Soviet departure from that land, the United States launched its invasion of Afghanistan. There may be those who will disagree with the belief that the invasion was necessary, but given the situation at time, the United States had little choice. The horrific 9/11 attack was launched by members of Al Qaeda, the terror group that was led by Osama bin Laden and based in Afghanistan. The Taliban that ruled about 80% of the country provided sanctuary to Al Qaeda. They were in fact, partnered with the terror organization. More lives were lost in the 9/11 attack than in the 1941 Pearl Harbor attack! Opponents of the Afghanistan invasion blame George W. Bush for getting us embroiled in that country, but Bush really had no choice. What was he supposed to do? Negotiate with Osama bin Laden, the man who openly swore to destroy the United States? Given the circumstances, any other president would have done the same thing. Hindsight is always 20/20, and George W. is a convenient target, but his decision, under the circumstances, was not wrong. America had to do something, and the man responsible for the 9/11 attack and his organization were in Afghanistan.
What followed the initial invasion of Afghanistan by our Special Operations, particularly those Army Special Forces teams that partnered with various Northern Alliance groups, was nothing short of spectacular. The surprisingly small number of American soldiers were able to lead the Northern Alliance groups to an unprecedented rout of Taliban and Al Qaeda forces in an amazingly short space of time. Unfortunately, after the spectacular and dramatic victory over Taliban and Al Qaeda, we shifted gears and changed our policy and tactics and the nature of the war changed. We poured-in ground troops and equipment and began conducting a conventional war, the very same kind of war that did not work for the Soviets! Apparently, we did not learn anything from the Soviet experience that took place earlier! So, like the Soviets, we too began to get bogged down. We tried to extricate ourselves by periodically downsizing our presence, but all it did was provide a "yo-yo" effect and required "surges" of increase in troop strength. Things just went from bad to worst!
So what went wrong? Aside from the fact that we unnecessarily shifted gears and increased troops strength and changed from unconventional to conventional warfare, we changed focus. We should have stayed with the unconventional warfare and with the goal of getting Osama bin Laden and destroying Al Qaeda and Taliban. Instead, we got involved in "nation building" and conducting a large scale conventional war. We did exactly the same thing in Vietnam, and we all know how that ended! However, the problem is not just simply military tactics and or political decisions involving "nation building," etc. The problem goes much deeper. It has to do with what has been taking place both with Pentagon's approach to fighting wars and with the American people's attitude and mentality when it comes to wars since the Korean War.
If there ever was such a thing as a "popular" war, it was World War Two. Perhaps "popular" is not the right word to use, but the majority of the American population at that time supported the war effort and believed that we should destroy the enemy. People understood that lives would be lost and although it was terrible, it was something that had to be accepted in time of war. Korean War was the first "unpopular" war and Americans wanted to know why we had to engage in a war far away when our country was not threatened directly. There was not anywhere near the kind of support or understanding that existed during World War Two among the population. In fact, there was no public support and there was an outcry to stop our involvement! Fortunately, the Korean War lasted only three years, a relatively short war and our boys were returned home. A little over a decade after the ceasefire agreement was signed at Panmunjom, we began our involvement in Vietnam. Actually our involvement in Vietnam took place even earlier, shortly after the ceasefire in Korea. First American combat casualty in Vietnam took place in 1958.
America carried on an unconventional warfare with Special Forces and other Army and Marine advisors in Vietnam from around 1958 until 1965 when President Johnson decided to escalate the war and sent in conventional forces. Prior to this, in 1963, CIA engineered a coupe in which the unpopular South Vietnamese president was removed by assassination. Yep, we meddled in their elections before elections even took place! Those were "low tech" days and no computer hacking, just assassinations. In the early 1970s "Vietnam-ization" (abandonment of our ally) took place and in 1975 the Republic of South Vietnam was no more. Materially (in terms of equipment) we were far superior to the black pajama clad Viet Cong and later the North Vietnamese Army, the NVA. Our troops were better trained, better equipped, yet we couldn't defeat them. Although we had successes on the battlefield, they just kept coming back time and time again. Technically we were superior, but tactically, we were inferior! There was no cohesiveness in our fighting units. Our soldiers and Marines were deployed for a year, then rotated back out of the country and new soldiers and Marines would replace them. There was no continuity or institutional memory with enlisted personnel as well as officers. Once you served a tour in Vietnam, you did not have to go back. Only those who volunteered served more than one tour. Vietnam War was fought on our side with troops that either served for one year or even less, sometimes just a six month TDY tour! In contrast, the Viet Cong and the NVA were there for the duration! They did not serve a one year tour and then return home!
We have had the same situation in Afghanistan. Our soldiers and Marines would deploy for a year, then return home. Many of the combat units would redeploy after a while and some soldiers and Marines end up serving multiple tours, but not with the, the same squad or platoon or company. In other words, despite troops with multiple tours, there is no continuity. Even at the higher level there is no continuity. In the past 15 years we have had 17 different Generals or Admirals in charge of our war in Afghanistan! You can't expect true cohesiveness or any institutional memory when you change personnel so often. During World War Two, soldiers and Marines served for the duration of the war, that was four years if you were in the service in 1941 when we entered the war! Yes, troops were rotated out of combat zone periodically, but as a unit, not individually. The only way you could leave was if you received a "million dollar wound," then you would leave the combat zone for good! The troops in Europe had one Supreme Commander the whole war, Eisenhower. Those in the Pacific had Nimitz on one side and McArthur on the other, also for the whole war!
Pentagon is finally beginning to realize that you cannot fight a war and constantly change personnel and leadership. There has to be some continuity in personnel for a unit to have true cohesiveness. But what is the solution? We can't very well deploy our troops for the duration of the war in Afghanistan! Can you imagine if we had kept the same Army and Marine infantry units in Afghanistan for the last 16 years! We tried that in Vietnam, many of the initial Army and Marine units that arrived in 1965 stayed the whole duration until they were pulled out for "Vietnam-ization" in the early 1970s. But, replacement of troops had to be made constantly during their stay, since the individual soldier's or Marine's one year tour would come to an end and they would leave. So, when those units left Vietnam, they were not composed of the same personnel, the same commanders!
Believe it or not, there is some talk about hiring mercenaries to do the work in Afghanistan! There is talk of hiring veteran Europeans and Americans who are willing to serve in Afghanistan to train and advise Afghan National Army and other troops. They would be paid substantially for their work, something in the neighborhood of $600 a day! They would remain in Afghanistan for the duration, for however long they are needed. This would remove the need for deploying our army and Marine units and would supposedly stop our public from voicing opposition to our involvement in that country. I don't know, sounds kind of crazy. But, as I said, it is seriously being considered and discussed in our government!
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
My Friend Reinaldo Diaz
A little over a year ago I did a blog titled "Tom Mix of Ecuador." In it, I talked about an eccentric Ecuadorian cattle rancher who had a thing for Tom Mix, the old Hollywood matinee idol, the cowboy actor. The Ecuadorian Tom Mix took to dressing like Tom Mix, and as I explained, even wore a six shooter and a white ten gallon Stetson! He met an untimely death in a shoot-out that took place at his ranch house on the banks of the Rio Taura. The house is said to be haunted since that time and no one has occupied it. Surprisingly, it stood in fairly good shape, despite the tropical climate with heavy rains and humidity. I guess they don't build them like they used to! A typical tract home that you find stateside today would have crumbled into a pile of rotting timber in that climate and in that space of time. Yet, that building stood some 40 years after it was abandoned, still apparently structurally sound and appearing almost unscathed, except for some old bullet holes left from that infamous shoot-out!
This blog, however, is about his nephew, Reinaldo Diaz, a real character in his own right and just as eccentric as his uncle, in my opinion. I talked about Reinaldo in the previous blog, about how he got into trouble with the law back in the 1960s when he shot a cattle rustler on his ranch. Reinaldo went on the lam for 7 years, hiding out in "El Norte" in "Nueva Jersey." He fled to the states, via Tijuana (illegally, of course!) and lived and worked in New Jersey for 7 years. He finally returned when his Dad sent word that the coast was clear, that the Police Chief (his nephew was a rustler that Reinaldo shot and killed) had been arrested for various crimes (including cattle rustling) and was serving time. So Reinaldo returned to Ecuador, surprisingly not speaking a word of English after 7 years in New Jersey! As he explained to me, he didn't need to learn English. Where he lived and worked, everyone spoke Spanish!
Reinaldo inherited one of the largest cattle ranches in that region. Back in the old days, before his uncle got himself killed, there were two large ranches. One ranch was owned by Reinaldo's father, and the other by his uncle, the Tom Mix of Ecuador. When Reinaldo's uncle was killed, his brother (Reinaldo's father) inherited the ranch, so the two large ranches were combined and made into a huge piece of property. When Reinaldo's father died, Reinaldo ended up with this enormous cattle ranch. The ranch stretched from Rio Taura to Rio Churrute and beyond. During the dry season, it was mostly lush pasture land broken up with stands of scrub jungle. During the rainy season (winter), most of the pasture land on the ranch flooded and was impassable except on horseback or canoe! The cattle, which was a hardy breed that was developed for tropical South America, originally came from Southern India. But that was over a century ago and by the mid 20th Century it developed into a unique breed of cattle that seemed to thrive even in flooded pastures, sloshing around like water buffalos and eating leaves off scrub jungles on the fringes of pastures.
I once asked Reinaldo how many heads of cattle he had and he wasn't sure, finally ended up just saying one word, bastante - a lot! Being an eccentric, Reinaldo had his share of quirks. He did not believe in branding his cattle. He told me that it was unnatural to mark cattle, that it was cruel to brand them with a hot iron! Yet, he raised his cattle for the beef market, and once sold, they were, of course, all butchered! I guess it was O.K. to kill the cattle, but not brand them! Anyway, his unbranded cattle were always prime pickings for rustlers! Amazingly, Reinaldo and his vaqueros were able to identify each head by its markings! Many of his cattle were semi wild, freely roaming since birth and hiding in the scrub jungles that spotted the ranch. It was truly a wild time at round up, since most cattle refused to be controlled or guided by humans on horseback. It was a very dangerous time as well for the vaqueros!
My good friend Lorenzo (who introduced me to Reinaldo) told me that Reinaldo was very wealthy. You wouldn't know it by looking at him. He always wore cheap clothing and drove a beat up old pick up truck. I don't think he even owned a suit and surely didn't know how to put on a tie! He lived in a cheap, somewhat rundown house not far from his ranch in the town of Duran, just across Rio Guayas from the city of Guayaquil. Duran was not a wealthy town, it was a working class town then and still is mostly occupied by lower socio-economic class residents. Reinaldo did not see any need to spend more money and live in a costlier place. His wife desperately wanted to move to Guayaquil to a better neighborhood and better home, but Reinaldo would not have it! Reinaldo often stayed at the ranch and slept at the "ranch house." The so-called ranch house was nothing but a one room casita on stilts, a typical house in that part of rural Ecuador. It did not have electricity nor running water (no plumbing whatsoever). Water had to be carried from Rio Taura a few hundred yards away, and bathroom facilities consisted of a crude outhouse with a shallow hole, not the best of facilities! All people living in that area lived in such housing. They were built on stilts to keep them off the water once the area flooded in the winter!
Reinaldo was quite proud of his casita, which he told me that he built himself. I am no carpenter or house builder, but I've built better dog houses and sheds with my limited skills than that casita of Reinaldo's! Once on an overnight hunting trip, I slept in that casita. If it had not been for the mosquito netting that draped over each hammock that we used, I would have ended up looking like a pin cushion! The mosquito activity outside of the netting was absolutely astounding.
We (Lorenzo and I) often hunted on Reinaldo's ranch, especially for ducks during winter months. We had to traverse the flooded ground on horseback. Reinaldo's cow ponies were a lot like those hardy little Mongolian ponies, they were small. The saddles were something else, they were wooden with no covering whatsoever, and painted in gay colors, usually bright blue, green, or red. The stirrups were round metal rings suspended on thick ropes, they were not adjustable! To put it mildly, it was very uncomfortable to ride those Ecuadorian ponies. But, that was the only form of transportation and we couldn't very well walk in water that ranged in depth from knee high to chest level.
On one memorable overnight duck hunt, we slept outside. Well, we tried to sleep. But the mosquito activity was so ferocious that Reinaldo and I ended up building a huge, smoky fire to keep the hungry mosquitos at bay. We sat up all night, talking, roasting plantains (verdes) and keeping the fire fed with wet wood that produced smoke. It was on that occasion that Reinaldo told me his life story, about fleeing to the states after killing the police chief's nephew and finally returning and ending up being the patron of the huge ranch. I asked him if he ever wanted to return to America and live, and he answered with an emphatic no! I asked him why he didn't want to live in America and his response was that the people here did not know how to live. He said that in his 7 years, he never saw anyone really living, everyone just worked everyday, came home tired, ate, watched TV, went to sleep, then started the process all over. Some of the younger ones he said went out drinking or dancing, but that was it. That was not living for him. He preferred to live as he did in Ecuador, even if it meant living in his casita with no electricity or water!
At that time he boasted that he was as in good shape as I was, and he had at least ten years on me! Funny how as time passed, those ten years began to shrink to eight, then six, then four, and finally last year he told Lorenzo that he was the same age as me! Lorenzo had attended Reinaldo's birthday celebration which was held at this ranch, a real outdoor parrillada (Ecuadorian barbeque). Lorenzo said that Reinaldo was in remarkably good shape and looked years younger than his mid 80s or so, Lorenzo wasn't sure. It was on that occasion that Reinaldo asked Lorenzo about me, since he knows that we keep in touch, and mentioned that we were of same age! Good old Reinaldo! I am old, very old, but not quite as old as Reinaldo. But if he wants everyone to think that he is "only" "seventy something" rather than "eighty something", so be it!
This blog, however, is about his nephew, Reinaldo Diaz, a real character in his own right and just as eccentric as his uncle, in my opinion. I talked about Reinaldo in the previous blog, about how he got into trouble with the law back in the 1960s when he shot a cattle rustler on his ranch. Reinaldo went on the lam for 7 years, hiding out in "El Norte" in "Nueva Jersey." He fled to the states, via Tijuana (illegally, of course!) and lived and worked in New Jersey for 7 years. He finally returned when his Dad sent word that the coast was clear, that the Police Chief (his nephew was a rustler that Reinaldo shot and killed) had been arrested for various crimes (including cattle rustling) and was serving time. So Reinaldo returned to Ecuador, surprisingly not speaking a word of English after 7 years in New Jersey! As he explained to me, he didn't need to learn English. Where he lived and worked, everyone spoke Spanish!
Reinaldo inherited one of the largest cattle ranches in that region. Back in the old days, before his uncle got himself killed, there were two large ranches. One ranch was owned by Reinaldo's father, and the other by his uncle, the Tom Mix of Ecuador. When Reinaldo's uncle was killed, his brother (Reinaldo's father) inherited the ranch, so the two large ranches were combined and made into a huge piece of property. When Reinaldo's father died, Reinaldo ended up with this enormous cattle ranch. The ranch stretched from Rio Taura to Rio Churrute and beyond. During the dry season, it was mostly lush pasture land broken up with stands of scrub jungle. During the rainy season (winter), most of the pasture land on the ranch flooded and was impassable except on horseback or canoe! The cattle, which was a hardy breed that was developed for tropical South America, originally came from Southern India. But that was over a century ago and by the mid 20th Century it developed into a unique breed of cattle that seemed to thrive even in flooded pastures, sloshing around like water buffalos and eating leaves off scrub jungles on the fringes of pastures.
I once asked Reinaldo how many heads of cattle he had and he wasn't sure, finally ended up just saying one word, bastante - a lot! Being an eccentric, Reinaldo had his share of quirks. He did not believe in branding his cattle. He told me that it was unnatural to mark cattle, that it was cruel to brand them with a hot iron! Yet, he raised his cattle for the beef market, and once sold, they were, of course, all butchered! I guess it was O.K. to kill the cattle, but not brand them! Anyway, his unbranded cattle were always prime pickings for rustlers! Amazingly, Reinaldo and his vaqueros were able to identify each head by its markings! Many of his cattle were semi wild, freely roaming since birth and hiding in the scrub jungles that spotted the ranch. It was truly a wild time at round up, since most cattle refused to be controlled or guided by humans on horseback. It was a very dangerous time as well for the vaqueros!
My good friend Lorenzo (who introduced me to Reinaldo) told me that Reinaldo was very wealthy. You wouldn't know it by looking at him. He always wore cheap clothing and drove a beat up old pick up truck. I don't think he even owned a suit and surely didn't know how to put on a tie! He lived in a cheap, somewhat rundown house not far from his ranch in the town of Duran, just across Rio Guayas from the city of Guayaquil. Duran was not a wealthy town, it was a working class town then and still is mostly occupied by lower socio-economic class residents. Reinaldo did not see any need to spend more money and live in a costlier place. His wife desperately wanted to move to Guayaquil to a better neighborhood and better home, but Reinaldo would not have it! Reinaldo often stayed at the ranch and slept at the "ranch house." The so-called ranch house was nothing but a one room casita on stilts, a typical house in that part of rural Ecuador. It did not have electricity nor running water (no plumbing whatsoever). Water had to be carried from Rio Taura a few hundred yards away, and bathroom facilities consisted of a crude outhouse with a shallow hole, not the best of facilities! All people living in that area lived in such housing. They were built on stilts to keep them off the water once the area flooded in the winter!
Reinaldo was quite proud of his casita, which he told me that he built himself. I am no carpenter or house builder, but I've built better dog houses and sheds with my limited skills than that casita of Reinaldo's! Once on an overnight hunting trip, I slept in that casita. If it had not been for the mosquito netting that draped over each hammock that we used, I would have ended up looking like a pin cushion! The mosquito activity outside of the netting was absolutely astounding.
We (Lorenzo and I) often hunted on Reinaldo's ranch, especially for ducks during winter months. We had to traverse the flooded ground on horseback. Reinaldo's cow ponies were a lot like those hardy little Mongolian ponies, they were small. The saddles were something else, they were wooden with no covering whatsoever, and painted in gay colors, usually bright blue, green, or red. The stirrups were round metal rings suspended on thick ropes, they were not adjustable! To put it mildly, it was very uncomfortable to ride those Ecuadorian ponies. But, that was the only form of transportation and we couldn't very well walk in water that ranged in depth from knee high to chest level.
On one memorable overnight duck hunt, we slept outside. Well, we tried to sleep. But the mosquito activity was so ferocious that Reinaldo and I ended up building a huge, smoky fire to keep the hungry mosquitos at bay. We sat up all night, talking, roasting plantains (verdes) and keeping the fire fed with wet wood that produced smoke. It was on that occasion that Reinaldo told me his life story, about fleeing to the states after killing the police chief's nephew and finally returning and ending up being the patron of the huge ranch. I asked him if he ever wanted to return to America and live, and he answered with an emphatic no! I asked him why he didn't want to live in America and his response was that the people here did not know how to live. He said that in his 7 years, he never saw anyone really living, everyone just worked everyday, came home tired, ate, watched TV, went to sleep, then started the process all over. Some of the younger ones he said went out drinking or dancing, but that was it. That was not living for him. He preferred to live as he did in Ecuador, even if it meant living in his casita with no electricity or water!
At that time he boasted that he was as in good shape as I was, and he had at least ten years on me! Funny how as time passed, those ten years began to shrink to eight, then six, then four, and finally last year he told Lorenzo that he was the same age as me! Lorenzo had attended Reinaldo's birthday celebration which was held at this ranch, a real outdoor parrillada (Ecuadorian barbeque). Lorenzo said that Reinaldo was in remarkably good shape and looked years younger than his mid 80s or so, Lorenzo wasn't sure. It was on that occasion that Reinaldo asked Lorenzo about me, since he knows that we keep in touch, and mentioned that we were of same age! Good old Reinaldo! I am old, very old, but not quite as old as Reinaldo. But if he wants everyone to think that he is "only" "seventy something" rather than "eighty something", so be it!
Friday, July 7, 2017
North Korea - A Problem That We Can't Seem To Solve -Part 2
In yesterday's blog I basically vented my frustrations and dissatisfaction at our government's inability to come up with a solution for the problem with North Korea. I pointed out that we have had problems with North Korea for over 60 years, since the Korean War. But now, or at least for the past decade, and especially during Kim Jong Un era, we have been facing a real national security threat. No country in the world, either with nuclear weapons or without, has actually threatened to attack us, to reduce our cities to "burning hell", as North Korea put it. Yes, we have enemies who have threatened harm to us, most notably the Islamic Extremists such as Al Qaeda and Islamic State (ISIS), and Iran still calls us the "Great Satan". But, their threats and attempts to harm us have been on a different scale, they seem to be mostly interested in taking over other Islamic countries, more of a regional war confined to the Middle East. That is true in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. Even the Arab-Israeli conflict into which we have poured billions upon billions of dollars and considerable effort for over a half a century, is still but a regional problem and does not have a direct impact on our national security.
The two military powers that have the capability to reach our shores with nuclear weapons, China and Russia, have never threatened to launch an attack against us. We are China's biggest trading partner and Russia, despite all the noise about their trying to interfere with our elections, would love to improve trading relations with us. Right now our relationship may be cool, but it is not in danger of escalating into a "hot" war as some news media alarmists would like us to think, claiming that we are engaged in a new "cold" war, etc. But despite whatever is being said about our "deteriorating" relationship with Russia (which was never great or "close" to begin with!), it is not anywhere near a nuclear attack by either side! The only country that has the nuclear capability and ability to reach our shores that has openly threatened us is North Korea. Now, call it what you like, a bluff, an empty threat, whatever. But the fact remains that they have consistently and openly threatened to attack us and destroy our country!
North Korea's nuclear program may have started much earlier, but it became known to the outside world for the first time during Kim Jong Il era, during Bill Clinton's administration. At that time the program was at an infant stage, supposedly (no one can really be sure) and Kim Jong Il used the North Korean nuclear capability, such as it was, as a bargaining tool in blackmailing the U.S. into giving economic assistance and making certain concessions. He was successful in gaining his goals, if not completely, at least partially. He forced us to the bargaining table and made us give him basically, much of what he sought. Our negotiators were naïve and came away from the bargaining table informing Clinton that we had succeeded. It didn't take long to find out that we didn't gain anything and North Korea was pursuing its nuclear program full speed! During this period, we were more preoccupied with the Balkans (Bosnia), Haiti, Somalia, and of course, the Arab-Israeli situation.
The fact that we were scammed by North Korea was somewhat irksome, but soon forgotten and North Korea and its leaders continued to appear as silly caricatures, tin pot tyrants, and really not taken seriously. At the same time, none of the countries and conflicts into which we poured our energy and tax payer dollars were a direct threat to our national security, and they still are not!
The situation has changed dramatically. Kim Jong Un, the son of Kim Jong Il the original North Korean leader who blackmailed us with his nuclear program, is not like his father! His father used the nuclear program as a blackmail tool, to lessen sanctions, to gain economic advantage, to gain actual financial and economic assistance from his enemies, primarily the U.S. To that end he succeeded. His much more dangerous and unpredictable son has a different agenda. It is a mistake to think that he is like his father, that he would be satisfied if we sat down and negotiated with him. If Clinton or George W., and Obama had stated that they would be "honored" to meet with Kim Jong Il, he would have been thrilled and perhaps things would have been different today. But none of the three previous U.S. presidents ever even mentioned about meeting with the North Korean leader. That, according to our foreign policy, would have been making a too great a concession, elevating a known dictator to a legitimate world leader status! So it never happened. But did you notice that when Trump said that he would be "honored" to meet Kim Jong Un, which took many by surprise, the North Korean leader did not reciprocate with much of a response!
Kim Jong Un is a nasty, unpredictable, psycho. As I have stated previously, the worst of the three Kims, worst than his grandfather Kim Il Song, the founder of North Korea, and worst than his father Kim Jong Il who was considered a nut case! Both grandfather and father would have jumped at the chance to meet with the U.S. president. This would have legitimized their position, their country. They would have immediately countered with arrangements for such a meeting. But such is not the case with Kim Jong Un. What does he do? The North Korean anti-U.S. rhetoric continues unabated and he launches an ICBM on the Fourth of July as if to say to Trump, "what do you think about that?"
I know that there are many out there that still think that Kim Jong Un's goals are the same as his father's. They think that all he wants is for sanctions to be lifted and for the U.S. to treat him with respect. That may very well be part of his goal, but he wants much more. South Korea had been bending over backwards trying be nice to him because they want to return to the negotiating table for the reunification process which was stopped. But he is having none of it! He recently openly announced that he has put out a "contract" to assassinate the former South Korean President Park. Keep in mind that he put out a "contract" to assassinate his own brother (half-brother) not too long ago! He doesn't care about being accepted by the world community! Obviously, having Trump say that he would be "honored" to meet him had no effect on him. When you consider that no American President had ever before agreed to meet with a North Korean leader, that was quite a concession on Trump's part. Yet, no reaction from Kim except to thumb his nose on the Fourth of July and launch an ICBM!
Today, North Korea is the only country in the world that is a direct threat to our national security. As I said, it is not ISIS or Al Qaeda or any other Islamic Extremists group, nor is it any other conflict that is taking place around the world. Yes, they all pose a danger to us in one way or another, but not like North Korea. It isn't even Cuba, which is less than 100 miles from our shores, it is North Korea and Kim Jong Un with his nuclear arsenal and ICBMs! Unfortunately, our anti missile system is lacking! From Alaska down to San Diego, California, we have a total of 36 anti missile systems set up. There are huge gaps, and no guarantee that even if an ICBM is detected and we launch anti missiles that they would do the job! Reagan tried to change the situation with his "Star Wars" program which was, of course, most strongly opposed by the then Soviet Union, but also domestically by liberal element in our government. It was ridiculed as being unnecessarily expensive and with no assurance that it would really work. That may have very well been the case when it was first proposed, but it would have been a start. Instead, the program was scrapped and we have been creeping along on missile defense system development. Since the 1980s, we have spent less than $200 Billion on missile defense, that is in the last 35 years! On the other hand we have spent over $1.5 Trillion on just two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.....and that doesn't include Syria!
I said in the last blog that we seemed to have paid too little attention to North Korea all this time and instead spent inordinate amount of effort and money on other countries and conflicts. When Kim Jong Un came to power we assumed that he would be like his father. Others thought that he would be "kinder and gentler" because he was educated in the West and was familiar with the West! But it seems that all those "experts" were wrong. He is the worst of the lot. He is completely unpredictable and definitely a sociopath/psychopath. Of course he would like to have sanctions lifted and receive economic help from the West, primarily the U.S. But, like I said yesterday, he is not a Chinese or Russian puppet, although he does receive economic help from those countries.
There are many who say that despite all his talk and demeanor, he is not so foolish as to launch an attack against the United States. But these people are forgetting one thing, Kim Jong Un is not normal, he does not think like a normal person. To compound the situation, living in an isolated situation as he does, and being the absolute ruler that he is, there is no one to counter his decisions, to try to sway his thinking to a more rational approach.
Japan launched the attack on Pearl Harbor thinking that U.S. would sue for peace after its 7th Fleet (Pacific Fleet) was destroyed. Japan did this despite opposition from Admiral Yamamoto, the very architect of the Pearl Harbor attack. Yamamoto openly stated that unless U.S. sues for peace within six months of the attack, Japan would lose the war. Ironically, although everyone thought Yamamoto was brilliant, no one listened to him. The Japanese, not even Tojo, were crazy like Kim!
Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa (Invasion of Soviet Union) against the advice of all of his generals! Many historians today agree that the end result of World War Two in Europe would have been very different had Germany not engaged in a war with the Soviet Union! Keep in mind that 70% of Germany's war machine was bogged down in Russia! Essentially, the "allies" had to deal with 30% of German forces, not the brunt of the Wehrmacht (army) and Luftwaffe (air force). Most historian feel that had Germany stayed out of Russia, Europe would have been under their rule. With U.S. stepping in to help, UK would have been spared, but the rest of Europe would have been under Germany!
I believe that unless our leaders realize that we are now confronting a real threat to our national security, we are going to be in trouble. I just do not understand why we continue to underestimate North Korea and the damage that it can do to us. Yes, we can level the northern part of the Korean peninsula into a nuclear wasteland. We could probably do that without using nuclear weapons. But, before we could do that, we will suffer some significant damage on our shores and American lives will be lost, on our shores and in Korea and Japan. South Korea will also suffer great damage, more than anyone else outside of North Korea. Japan too will suffer damage. You can rest assured that nuclear armed missiles will be launched against our bases in Japan. Okinawa will definitely be hit. Even Guam will be hit. So it will be a horrific, nuclear catastrophe in that part of Asia and Pacific, including Hawaii. parts of Alaska, and our Pacific Coast!
Before Pearl Harbor, most Americans thought that it could never happen. Japan a small country with no natural resources to speak of and so far away would never actually attack the U.S. Well, they were wrong. Japan may have had nationalistic zealots in its government, but no real sociopath in a position to make major decisions. Tojo was portrayed as a villain, but he was not crazy! Yet Japan attacked the U.S. Hitler was a sociopath and look where it led Germany, down to the last minute until he committed suicide in a bunker! Do you really think North Korea is only bluffing, that Kim Jong Un only wants to be treated with "respect" and have sanctions lifted? It is that kind of
thinking that has led the situation to reach this point. Kim Jong Un is an absolute ruler and he is completely unpredictable. He is the kind of a nut that will cut off his own nose (kill his own people and destroy his nation) to gain what he wants, which is unclear! Why do our leaders not take him seriously?
The two military powers that have the capability to reach our shores with nuclear weapons, China and Russia, have never threatened to launch an attack against us. We are China's biggest trading partner and Russia, despite all the noise about their trying to interfere with our elections, would love to improve trading relations with us. Right now our relationship may be cool, but it is not in danger of escalating into a "hot" war as some news media alarmists would like us to think, claiming that we are engaged in a new "cold" war, etc. But despite whatever is being said about our "deteriorating" relationship with Russia (which was never great or "close" to begin with!), it is not anywhere near a nuclear attack by either side! The only country that has the nuclear capability and ability to reach our shores that has openly threatened us is North Korea. Now, call it what you like, a bluff, an empty threat, whatever. But the fact remains that they have consistently and openly threatened to attack us and destroy our country!
North Korea's nuclear program may have started much earlier, but it became known to the outside world for the first time during Kim Jong Il era, during Bill Clinton's administration. At that time the program was at an infant stage, supposedly (no one can really be sure) and Kim Jong Il used the North Korean nuclear capability, such as it was, as a bargaining tool in blackmailing the U.S. into giving economic assistance and making certain concessions. He was successful in gaining his goals, if not completely, at least partially. He forced us to the bargaining table and made us give him basically, much of what he sought. Our negotiators were naïve and came away from the bargaining table informing Clinton that we had succeeded. It didn't take long to find out that we didn't gain anything and North Korea was pursuing its nuclear program full speed! During this period, we were more preoccupied with the Balkans (Bosnia), Haiti, Somalia, and of course, the Arab-Israeli situation.
The fact that we were scammed by North Korea was somewhat irksome, but soon forgotten and North Korea and its leaders continued to appear as silly caricatures, tin pot tyrants, and really not taken seriously. At the same time, none of the countries and conflicts into which we poured our energy and tax payer dollars were a direct threat to our national security, and they still are not!
The situation has changed dramatically. Kim Jong Un, the son of Kim Jong Il the original North Korean leader who blackmailed us with his nuclear program, is not like his father! His father used the nuclear program as a blackmail tool, to lessen sanctions, to gain economic advantage, to gain actual financial and economic assistance from his enemies, primarily the U.S. To that end he succeeded. His much more dangerous and unpredictable son has a different agenda. It is a mistake to think that he is like his father, that he would be satisfied if we sat down and negotiated with him. If Clinton or George W., and Obama had stated that they would be "honored" to meet with Kim Jong Il, he would have been thrilled and perhaps things would have been different today. But none of the three previous U.S. presidents ever even mentioned about meeting with the North Korean leader. That, according to our foreign policy, would have been making a too great a concession, elevating a known dictator to a legitimate world leader status! So it never happened. But did you notice that when Trump said that he would be "honored" to meet Kim Jong Un, which took many by surprise, the North Korean leader did not reciprocate with much of a response!
Kim Jong Un is a nasty, unpredictable, psycho. As I have stated previously, the worst of the three Kims, worst than his grandfather Kim Il Song, the founder of North Korea, and worst than his father Kim Jong Il who was considered a nut case! Both grandfather and father would have jumped at the chance to meet with the U.S. president. This would have legitimized their position, their country. They would have immediately countered with arrangements for such a meeting. But such is not the case with Kim Jong Un. What does he do? The North Korean anti-U.S. rhetoric continues unabated and he launches an ICBM on the Fourth of July as if to say to Trump, "what do you think about that?"
I know that there are many out there that still think that Kim Jong Un's goals are the same as his father's. They think that all he wants is for sanctions to be lifted and for the U.S. to treat him with respect. That may very well be part of his goal, but he wants much more. South Korea had been bending over backwards trying be nice to him because they want to return to the negotiating table for the reunification process which was stopped. But he is having none of it! He recently openly announced that he has put out a "contract" to assassinate the former South Korean President Park. Keep in mind that he put out a "contract" to assassinate his own brother (half-brother) not too long ago! He doesn't care about being accepted by the world community! Obviously, having Trump say that he would be "honored" to meet him had no effect on him. When you consider that no American President had ever before agreed to meet with a North Korean leader, that was quite a concession on Trump's part. Yet, no reaction from Kim except to thumb his nose on the Fourth of July and launch an ICBM!
Today, North Korea is the only country in the world that is a direct threat to our national security. As I said, it is not ISIS or Al Qaeda or any other Islamic Extremists group, nor is it any other conflict that is taking place around the world. Yes, they all pose a danger to us in one way or another, but not like North Korea. It isn't even Cuba, which is less than 100 miles from our shores, it is North Korea and Kim Jong Un with his nuclear arsenal and ICBMs! Unfortunately, our anti missile system is lacking! From Alaska down to San Diego, California, we have a total of 36 anti missile systems set up. There are huge gaps, and no guarantee that even if an ICBM is detected and we launch anti missiles that they would do the job! Reagan tried to change the situation with his "Star Wars" program which was, of course, most strongly opposed by the then Soviet Union, but also domestically by liberal element in our government. It was ridiculed as being unnecessarily expensive and with no assurance that it would really work. That may have very well been the case when it was first proposed, but it would have been a start. Instead, the program was scrapped and we have been creeping along on missile defense system development. Since the 1980s, we have spent less than $200 Billion on missile defense, that is in the last 35 years! On the other hand we have spent over $1.5 Trillion on just two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.....and that doesn't include Syria!
I said in the last blog that we seemed to have paid too little attention to North Korea all this time and instead spent inordinate amount of effort and money on other countries and conflicts. When Kim Jong Un came to power we assumed that he would be like his father. Others thought that he would be "kinder and gentler" because he was educated in the West and was familiar with the West! But it seems that all those "experts" were wrong. He is the worst of the lot. He is completely unpredictable and definitely a sociopath/psychopath. Of course he would like to have sanctions lifted and receive economic help from the West, primarily the U.S. But, like I said yesterday, he is not a Chinese or Russian puppet, although he does receive economic help from those countries.
There are many who say that despite all his talk and demeanor, he is not so foolish as to launch an attack against the United States. But these people are forgetting one thing, Kim Jong Un is not normal, he does not think like a normal person. To compound the situation, living in an isolated situation as he does, and being the absolute ruler that he is, there is no one to counter his decisions, to try to sway his thinking to a more rational approach.
Japan launched the attack on Pearl Harbor thinking that U.S. would sue for peace after its 7th Fleet (Pacific Fleet) was destroyed. Japan did this despite opposition from Admiral Yamamoto, the very architect of the Pearl Harbor attack. Yamamoto openly stated that unless U.S. sues for peace within six months of the attack, Japan would lose the war. Ironically, although everyone thought Yamamoto was brilliant, no one listened to him. The Japanese, not even Tojo, were crazy like Kim!
Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa (Invasion of Soviet Union) against the advice of all of his generals! Many historians today agree that the end result of World War Two in Europe would have been very different had Germany not engaged in a war with the Soviet Union! Keep in mind that 70% of Germany's war machine was bogged down in Russia! Essentially, the "allies" had to deal with 30% of German forces, not the brunt of the Wehrmacht (army) and Luftwaffe (air force). Most historian feel that had Germany stayed out of Russia, Europe would have been under their rule. With U.S. stepping in to help, UK would have been spared, but the rest of Europe would have been under Germany!
I believe that unless our leaders realize that we are now confronting a real threat to our national security, we are going to be in trouble. I just do not understand why we continue to underestimate North Korea and the damage that it can do to us. Yes, we can level the northern part of the Korean peninsula into a nuclear wasteland. We could probably do that without using nuclear weapons. But, before we could do that, we will suffer some significant damage on our shores and American lives will be lost, on our shores and in Korea and Japan. South Korea will also suffer great damage, more than anyone else outside of North Korea. Japan too will suffer damage. You can rest assured that nuclear armed missiles will be launched against our bases in Japan. Okinawa will definitely be hit. Even Guam will be hit. So it will be a horrific, nuclear catastrophe in that part of Asia and Pacific, including Hawaii. parts of Alaska, and our Pacific Coast!
Before Pearl Harbor, most Americans thought that it could never happen. Japan a small country with no natural resources to speak of and so far away would never actually attack the U.S. Well, they were wrong. Japan may have had nationalistic zealots in its government, but no real sociopath in a position to make major decisions. Tojo was portrayed as a villain, but he was not crazy! Yet Japan attacked the U.S. Hitler was a sociopath and look where it led Germany, down to the last minute until he committed suicide in a bunker! Do you really think North Korea is only bluffing, that Kim Jong Un only wants to be treated with "respect" and have sanctions lifted? It is that kind of
thinking that has led the situation to reach this point. Kim Jong Un is an absolute ruler and he is completely unpredictable. He is the kind of a nut that will cut off his own nose (kill his own people and destroy his nation) to gain what he wants, which is unclear! Why do our leaders not take him seriously?
Thursday, July 6, 2017
North Korea - A Problem That We Can't Seem To Solve!
North Korea has been a thorn on our side ever since the Korean War. After the cease fire agreement was signed in 1953, North Korea constantly created problems for us and we, for one reason or another, haven't been able to handle them! It is like one of those day time soap operas, it just keeps churning and churning. There were plenty of provocative actions by North Korea since the cease fire that could have resulted in military action, and I don't think anyone would have faulted us. But for one reason or another, we refrained from taking any action and instead used verbal condemnation and economic sanction, which have been in place since the cease fire anyway!
On the one hand, we seem to take them seriously and appear to be concerned. On the other hand we take them too lightly. It seems that none of our presidents, Republican or Democrat, have been able to solve this problem. Clinton had the best shot at stopping North Korean nuclear development, but for one reason or another, whatever deal we struck with North Korea did not work, and things got out of control. G.W. Bush tried also, but his approach did not work. Remember those words of the Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld at that time? A reporter tried to trip him up and asked a double edged question. He asked why we didn't carry out a "surgical" air strike with smart bombs to knock out their nuclear facilities. This was after the so-called "shock and awe" air bombardment that we carried out against Saddam Hussein in Baghdad. Rumsfled, in his typical caustic, sarcastic manner, responded by saying that: "North Koreans are not Arabs! They won't quit until every last man, woman, and child is killed!" So, obviously, at least Donald Rumsfeld did not take North Korea lightly. But then, the rest of the members of Bush's administration didn't seem to feel that North Korea was too much of a threat. Obama, in his eight years with his "non-active, reactive foreign policy" managed to give North Korea more confidence, if anything. Kim Jong Un came to power in 2011 and lived with Obama's non-policy on North Korea for the last six years! Obama and his "reactive policy" emboldened Kim.
Now Donald Trump begins by first saying that he would talk to Kim, then also stated that North Korea was incapable of making an ICBM, You can be sure that Kim was very much aware of it when he decided to launch an ICBM on the Fourth of July and tweak Trump's nose! Month's earlier I blogged and stated that North Korea had ICBM capability, however, all our "experts" were saying that they did not have ICBMs. So I guess Trump was listening to those "experts." Guess what? They do have ICBMs! It seems to me that we are forever underestimating North Koreans. Why? I can't quite understand this attitude. Look how high tech South Korea is today. I hate to say this, but they are ahead of us in many areas of high tech, especially electronics. If South Korea has the brain power to develop such high tech stuff. why can't the North Koreans? After all, they are the same people, just different political ideologies!
So now, there appears to be genuine alarm and concern in Washington over North Korea. My god, they have nuclear bombs and ICBMs capable of reaching our shores! What do we do? Russia and China must get involved and reign-in North Korea - that is what we have been saying for years! Note the responses from Russia and China. Russia says North Korea did not test an ICBM, it was just a "medium range" missile! Yeah, right, a medium range missile that can reach continental U.S.!
Both Russia and China are saying that if we stop the bi-national military exercises that we hold each year with South Korea, that would be the first step to curbing Kim's activities. If our leaders believe that, then they are even bigger fools than I think they are! Stopping the joint military exercises would be the first step. The next demand will be that we reduce significantly or totally remove our military presence from South Korea and Japan! Once that happens, guess what? Korean War II will begin! When the Korean War began in June of 1950, we had no combat troops whatsoever in South Korea. We had a few military advisors and administrative type personnel. We had no combat ready troops in Japan either. Our troops in Japan had been on occupation duty and relatively soft life style with practically no regularly scheduled combat training. We know what happened at the outset of the war! We don't want to repeat that. We now have about 30,000 combat ready troops in South Korea and about 50,000 in Japan. We also have troops in Guam and Hawaii that can reach Korea in relatively short time as reinforcements. This is what China and Russia does not like. They would love to see those 80,000 troops leave South Korea and Japan!
North Korea and Kim Jong Un are not the puppets of Russia or China. Kim Il Song, the grandfather of current psycho was a Soviet puppet for a while, at least during the Korean War. But he broke away from Soviet Union and PRC, becoming fiercely independent, starting the juche (self reliance) movement that exists to this day! Yes they trade with China and Russia and are dependent on those two countries for economic trade, but they are not their puppets! To add to this situation, neither China nor Russia want a weak North Korea. They want a militarily strong North Korea on their border as a buffer. North Korea would never attack them, but it will prevent any encroachment by South Korea, and therefore, U.S., to their borders!
After Trump met with Xi, it was announced that China will get involved in "denuclearizing" North Korea by applying political and economic pressure. There was this token stopping of coal shipments and China has supposedly stopped petroleum shipments. Some reporters got excited over these insignificant acts. Well, guess who has more petroleum than China? Russia! Russia has already signed a deal with former South Korean President Park to supply South Korea with oil, build a pipeline from Vladivostok! How difficult do you think it will be for Russia to supply oil to North Korea, if it isn't doing so already! Vladivostok is a stone's throw away from North Korea. Russia is desperate to sell to other countries. We had a chance to make a deal with Russia on oil back during George W's days. Putin offered Bush Russian oil but things sort of went sour and a deal was never struck. Economic sanctions by China and Russia against North Korea? If you believe that, you must believe in the tooth fairy! That will never happen in reality, at least not in this century! It may happen on paper and Russia and China may "claim" that they imposed sanctions, but in reality.........
In any kind of discussion with North Korea over their nuclear program, China and Russia must participate, but so does Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. That is a given, because all those countries are very close to each other. But to expect Russia and China to step up and pull North Korea's teeth? That isn't going to happen. Keep in mind that both China and Russia were directly involved in the Korean War. There were more Chinese troops on the ground after November 1950 than North Korean troops! The core cadre of North Korean Army was Russian, there were many Korean Russians in key positions including the Army Chief of Staff Nam Il, who was a major general in the Soviet Red Army, not to mention Kim Il Song himself who was a Brigadier General in the Soviet Red Army! Many Russian pilots flew MIG-15s in combat against our pilots! All in all neither Russia nor China want the Korean peninsula to become a democratic state that is more friendly to the U.S. than to them. Reunification of the two Koreas is not what China and Russia want, unless it will be reunited under North Korean control! In the same token, it is in their best interest to keep North Korea strong, a threat in the region!
Just what are we going to do now? Trump says that he is not ruling out military action at this time. That could be just tough talk. We haven't taken any military action before when North Korea's actions cost American lives. I would be very surprised if we did anything now. So, like a good soap opera, the North Korean saga keeps churning on and on. Sadly, I think that unless we really do something, it will blow up in our face one day soon. But if we do take military action, we risk Korean War II, not World War III as some alarmists suggest. But even if the war is confined just to that peninsula as it did before, it would be devastating, not just to North Korea but South Korea as well. South Korean capital Seoul is some 36 odd miles south of the DMZ. North Korea doesn't even need nuclear weapons to devastate that city, conventional rockets and missiles could do tremendous damage. Of course, in retaliation, South Korea and U.S. would probably destroy most of North Korea. I know there are a lot of FB postings about reducing North Korea to ashes, etc. But that is not the answer.
The best solution to the whole situation is if somehow the two Koreas got together and came up with a plan for peaceful reunification which would lead to free elections. This was what was supposed to happen in 1947 when North Korea decided not to play and took all its marbles home only to launch an invasion of the south three years later. South Korea is desperately hoping to settle the problem of divided Korea by peaceful reunification. This is what the UN and all the other world powers should push for. However, everyone has their own agenda and two of the most powerful countries, China and Russia, do not want to see a united Korea. They know that should reunification take place, despite initial economic and political chaos, a democratic form of government will prevail. If that happens, then both China and Russia will lose their influence, such as it is, over Korea. Right now, at least they have some influence over North Korea and are enjoying economic benefits of trading with a developed South Korea.
On the one hand, we seem to take them seriously and appear to be concerned. On the other hand we take them too lightly. It seems that none of our presidents, Republican or Democrat, have been able to solve this problem. Clinton had the best shot at stopping North Korean nuclear development, but for one reason or another, whatever deal we struck with North Korea did not work, and things got out of control. G.W. Bush tried also, but his approach did not work. Remember those words of the Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld at that time? A reporter tried to trip him up and asked a double edged question. He asked why we didn't carry out a "surgical" air strike with smart bombs to knock out their nuclear facilities. This was after the so-called "shock and awe" air bombardment that we carried out against Saddam Hussein in Baghdad. Rumsfled, in his typical caustic, sarcastic manner, responded by saying that: "North Koreans are not Arabs! They won't quit until every last man, woman, and child is killed!" So, obviously, at least Donald Rumsfeld did not take North Korea lightly. But then, the rest of the members of Bush's administration didn't seem to feel that North Korea was too much of a threat. Obama, in his eight years with his "non-active, reactive foreign policy" managed to give North Korea more confidence, if anything. Kim Jong Un came to power in 2011 and lived with Obama's non-policy on North Korea for the last six years! Obama and his "reactive policy" emboldened Kim.
Now Donald Trump begins by first saying that he would talk to Kim, then also stated that North Korea was incapable of making an ICBM, You can be sure that Kim was very much aware of it when he decided to launch an ICBM on the Fourth of July and tweak Trump's nose! Month's earlier I blogged and stated that North Korea had ICBM capability, however, all our "experts" were saying that they did not have ICBMs. So I guess Trump was listening to those "experts." Guess what? They do have ICBMs! It seems to me that we are forever underestimating North Koreans. Why? I can't quite understand this attitude. Look how high tech South Korea is today. I hate to say this, but they are ahead of us in many areas of high tech, especially electronics. If South Korea has the brain power to develop such high tech stuff. why can't the North Koreans? After all, they are the same people, just different political ideologies!
So now, there appears to be genuine alarm and concern in Washington over North Korea. My god, they have nuclear bombs and ICBMs capable of reaching our shores! What do we do? Russia and China must get involved and reign-in North Korea - that is what we have been saying for years! Note the responses from Russia and China. Russia says North Korea did not test an ICBM, it was just a "medium range" missile! Yeah, right, a medium range missile that can reach continental U.S.!
Both Russia and China are saying that if we stop the bi-national military exercises that we hold each year with South Korea, that would be the first step to curbing Kim's activities. If our leaders believe that, then they are even bigger fools than I think they are! Stopping the joint military exercises would be the first step. The next demand will be that we reduce significantly or totally remove our military presence from South Korea and Japan! Once that happens, guess what? Korean War II will begin! When the Korean War began in June of 1950, we had no combat troops whatsoever in South Korea. We had a few military advisors and administrative type personnel. We had no combat ready troops in Japan either. Our troops in Japan had been on occupation duty and relatively soft life style with practically no regularly scheduled combat training. We know what happened at the outset of the war! We don't want to repeat that. We now have about 30,000 combat ready troops in South Korea and about 50,000 in Japan. We also have troops in Guam and Hawaii that can reach Korea in relatively short time as reinforcements. This is what China and Russia does not like. They would love to see those 80,000 troops leave South Korea and Japan!
North Korea and Kim Jong Un are not the puppets of Russia or China. Kim Il Song, the grandfather of current psycho was a Soviet puppet for a while, at least during the Korean War. But he broke away from Soviet Union and PRC, becoming fiercely independent, starting the juche (self reliance) movement that exists to this day! Yes they trade with China and Russia and are dependent on those two countries for economic trade, but they are not their puppets! To add to this situation, neither China nor Russia want a weak North Korea. They want a militarily strong North Korea on their border as a buffer. North Korea would never attack them, but it will prevent any encroachment by South Korea, and therefore, U.S., to their borders!
After Trump met with Xi, it was announced that China will get involved in "denuclearizing" North Korea by applying political and economic pressure. There was this token stopping of coal shipments and China has supposedly stopped petroleum shipments. Some reporters got excited over these insignificant acts. Well, guess who has more petroleum than China? Russia! Russia has already signed a deal with former South Korean President Park to supply South Korea with oil, build a pipeline from Vladivostok! How difficult do you think it will be for Russia to supply oil to North Korea, if it isn't doing so already! Vladivostok is a stone's throw away from North Korea. Russia is desperate to sell to other countries. We had a chance to make a deal with Russia on oil back during George W's days. Putin offered Bush Russian oil but things sort of went sour and a deal was never struck. Economic sanctions by China and Russia against North Korea? If you believe that, you must believe in the tooth fairy! That will never happen in reality, at least not in this century! It may happen on paper and Russia and China may "claim" that they imposed sanctions, but in reality.........
In any kind of discussion with North Korea over their nuclear program, China and Russia must participate, but so does Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. That is a given, because all those countries are very close to each other. But to expect Russia and China to step up and pull North Korea's teeth? That isn't going to happen. Keep in mind that both China and Russia were directly involved in the Korean War. There were more Chinese troops on the ground after November 1950 than North Korean troops! The core cadre of North Korean Army was Russian, there were many Korean Russians in key positions including the Army Chief of Staff Nam Il, who was a major general in the Soviet Red Army, not to mention Kim Il Song himself who was a Brigadier General in the Soviet Red Army! Many Russian pilots flew MIG-15s in combat against our pilots! All in all neither Russia nor China want the Korean peninsula to become a democratic state that is more friendly to the U.S. than to them. Reunification of the two Koreas is not what China and Russia want, unless it will be reunited under North Korean control! In the same token, it is in their best interest to keep North Korea strong, a threat in the region!
Just what are we going to do now? Trump says that he is not ruling out military action at this time. That could be just tough talk. We haven't taken any military action before when North Korea's actions cost American lives. I would be very surprised if we did anything now. So, like a good soap opera, the North Korean saga keeps churning on and on. Sadly, I think that unless we really do something, it will blow up in our face one day soon. But if we do take military action, we risk Korean War II, not World War III as some alarmists suggest. But even if the war is confined just to that peninsula as it did before, it would be devastating, not just to North Korea but South Korea as well. South Korean capital Seoul is some 36 odd miles south of the DMZ. North Korea doesn't even need nuclear weapons to devastate that city, conventional rockets and missiles could do tremendous damage. Of course, in retaliation, South Korea and U.S. would probably destroy most of North Korea. I know there are a lot of FB postings about reducing North Korea to ashes, etc. But that is not the answer.
The best solution to the whole situation is if somehow the two Koreas got together and came up with a plan for peaceful reunification which would lead to free elections. This was what was supposed to happen in 1947 when North Korea decided not to play and took all its marbles home only to launch an invasion of the south three years later. South Korea is desperately hoping to settle the problem of divided Korea by peaceful reunification. This is what the UN and all the other world powers should push for. However, everyone has their own agenda and two of the most powerful countries, China and Russia, do not want to see a united Korea. They know that should reunification take place, despite initial economic and political chaos, a democratic form of government will prevail. If that happens, then both China and Russia will lose their influence, such as it is, over Korea. Right now, at least they have some influence over North Korea and are enjoying economic benefits of trading with a developed South Korea.
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