When I first blogged on North Korea several years ago, I mainly talked about the vicious Kim family dynasty that has ruled that country since its beginning more than 70 years ago. Later, as various incidents took place, I blogged on specific issues like the poisoning of Kim Jong Un's half brother in Malaysia, but mostly it was about their nuclear development. I am certainly no seer or claim to have any special knowledge of North Korea, but even with what I know, I was able to determine that their nuclear weapons development was far ahead of what our "experts" kept saying. When North Korea finally tested a hydrogen bomb, our experts said that it was just a large atomic bomb, not a hydrogen bomb. When they tested their missiles and claimed that they had ICBMs, we "pooh-poohed" the whole thing and said they were incapable of developing ICBMs. Throughout, it seems that our experts on North Korea were determined to convince the American public that North Korea was just incapable of developing sophisticated weaponry such as nuclear devices and long range missiles. Short range SCUD type missiles, we agreed that they could make....perhaps even mid range missiles. But long range missiles, no way.
In one of my blogs, I said that they had ICBMs and could deliver nuclear devices to our shores. At that time (about a year ago), everyone in our government said that they did not have the capability. As Trump put it so emphatically only a few months ago, they will in no way develop the capability, we will not allow it! But now, only a few months later, it seems everyone is singing a different tune. The latest assessment from the same experts who had earlier said North Korea was incapable of developing ICBMs, is that they have missiles that can not only reach Chicago, but possibly even New York! This is a complete turn-around from earlier statements about North Korea's capabilities!
What changed? Why did we insist earlier that North Korea did not have these weapons? During the past several years, while news would appear that North Korea was testing nuclear devices or new missiles, we kept saying that most of the tests were failures and that they simply did not have the know-how to make things work. To be quite honest, it even smacked of racism, that North Koreans just did not have the brains or the ability to develop advanced weapons. During World War Two our propaganda machine churned out the same kind of racist-tainted information about Japan's ability to produce sophisticated weapons. It was widely rumored that the famous Japanese fighter plane, the Mitsubishi Zero, was actually designed by Germans. In other words, the Japanese were not capable of coming up on their own with such an advanced and complicated design. So it seems we have been doing the same thing with North Korea. After all, they are a small, backward Asian country. How could they come up with such advanced technology on their own. Surely the Russians must have had a hand in it! But now, it seems things changed completely.
Could it be that our government has finally realized that North Korea will not just go away if we ignore it? Has there been a change of the guards, so-to-speak, with the "experts" in our government?
I am not too sure what is happening, but I suspect that it is mostly a realization that perhaps North Korea is a real threat and that our government better be ready to "answer" to the public, should the worst happen. It may also be the realization that neither China or Russia are really interested in disarming North Korea. It is not that they want a war in the region, it is simply that they want a buffer in the form of a threatening North Korea. Contrary to some who think China and Russia do not object to the reunification of north and south, neither China or Russia want a unified Korea. Should reunification take place, perhaps there will be economic chaos at first and possibly even political unrest. But eventually things will settle down and an economically and militarily powerful unified Korea will emerge. It will without a doubt be a democratic government such as the one in South Korea, a government that will be allied with the U.S. Korea will not abandon its military and economic ties with the U.S., not with the two giants to their north, Russia and China. This will put U.S. military presence right on the Chinese and Russian border! No, China and Russia definitely do not want that.
Although North Korea's large million plus army is a major threat on the ground, it is not as big a threat as it may seem. Should hostilities break out between north and south, it is possible that large numbers of North Korea's feared People's Army will defect! Defectors from the north consistently tell stories of the unhappy state of North Korean troops. Although they are better fed than the general population, it is still no picnic, and they are not completely stupid. They don't all believe in the communist propaganda that is daily churned out by the system. There are constantly defectors from the People's Army who risk their lives crossing the DMZ. So, it is very probable that a large number of troops will defect on the battle field.
One of the reasons that Chang Kai Sheik's Nationalist Army lost to Mao's People's Army was because of defections. The Nationalist Army developed a reputation for being a poor fighting force, that is because the morale was low and the average soldier did not believe in what they were fighting for....i.e., the Nationalist cause. In contrast, Mao's troops had high morale and believed in their cause. The Nationalist's defected almost enmass....by divisions, including their generals! The same thing could happen with the North Korean army. When you consider that since the Armistice was signed in 1953, there has never been a defector from the south going north (no Koreans, but there were a few misguided Americans!), but thousands of defectors from the north to the south, despite the extreme danger involved in crossing the DMZ. It is not inconceivable that mass defections would take place if the opportunity presents itself to the North Koreans. I am not saying that it is going to happen, but it is a possibility, Donald Rumsfeld's words notwithstanding that "North Koreans will fight to the last man, woman, and child." So, it isn't so much the North Korean army that is a problem, despite its huge size and fearsome reputation. It is their nuclear arsenal and their ICBMs that now our "experts" concede that they can reach our shores, all the way to the East Coast!
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