Saturday, January 9, 2016

China and Korea

     China has had a long standing relationship with Korea in one form or another, going back as far as the Three Kingdom Period of Korea (57 BC - 668 AD).  During that time, Korea was split into three countries with a dividing line roughly where the DMZ between North and South Korea exists today.  To the south, the land was again split in half, east and west with two competing kingdoms, Silla and Paekche.  To the north, extending all the way to what is Manchuria today, was the powerful Kokuryo.  China feared Kokuryo and its warlike culture and constantly allied itself with either Silla or Paekche in the south to try and defeat Kokuryo.  Ultimately, in the 7th Century AD, Silla conquered first its neighbor Paekche, then with the help of Tang Dynasty China, defeated Kokuryo.  But in doing so, Manchuria was lost and the newly formed Koryo Dynasty confined its borders to the small peninsula that is known today as Korea.
     From the time that Kokuryo fell, Korea, whether it was as the Koryo Dynasty or the later Chosun Dynasty, was always under the influence of China.  It became a vassal state, although Korea did not pay tribute to China and its numerous dynasties.  When Korea was subject to foreign invasions, it always sought help from China.  China helped most of the time by sending troops but it was never consistent, the help was rather sporadic due to problems China had at home.
     During the more modern era, in the 20th Century, when Korea was colonized by Japan, it was primarily China that helped arm and support the Korean Freedom Fighters.  There was, of course, also help from the newly formed Soviet Union.  So Korean Freedom Fighters who operated along the Manchurian border were either Russian trained and sponsored or Chinese sponsored.  But regardless of whether it was Russian or Chinese, the sponsors were communist!  Later when the Japanese were able to more or less defeat the Korean Freedom Fighters, the survivors either joined the Chinese Communist Guerrillas or joined the Soviet Red Army!  That is how Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea and grandfather of today's Kim Jung Un ended up in the Soviet Red Army and his son, Kim Jung Il (Kim Jung Un's father) was born in Russia!
     In 1950 China crossed the border into North Korea to fight the UN forces led by the United States.  China entered the fray not because of any desire to gain territory or help Kim Il Sung, but rather for its own survival.  Of course Stalin urged Mao to help North Korea, but China's motivation was more based on its own survival.  There was fear that McArthur would bomb and send troops across the Yalu, which he had verbally threatened to do!  So, China's entry into the Korean War can be seen more as a self preservation move rather than helping out a neighbor in trouble!  Kim Il Sung did not have strong ties with China, his ties were with the Soviet Union!  However, Stalin dumped him when he was pushed to the Manchurian border, after having initially urged him to attack the south.  Kim's relations with Russia soured and he became allied closer with China.  The Soviet Union still provided North Korea with economic assistance, but China was beginning to have a bigger role as time went on.  Sometime before his death, Kim Il Sung's ties with the Soviet Union were almost completely severed and he became reliant on China more and more.  China, on the other hand, saw North Korea as one country with which it could trade and unload some of its products.  Remember, this was during a period when China was not open to the West and was limited as to with whom it could trade.
     So now we come to current era.  Situation has changed dramatically for China in the last quarter of a century.  China has become an economic giant and its main trading partner is the United States!  Its main rivals for the market share in the United States and the rest of the world is Japan and South Korea!  Japanese automotive industry still dominates the world market, although South Korea with Hyundai and KIA is fast catching up.  Electronic market also is dominated by Japanese and Koreans.  China is getting there, but still far behind.
     Those politicians and leaders in America who want China to handle North Korea and its belligerent behavior, i.e., nuclear bomb development, really need to learn their history and current events!  If anything, North Korea's belligerent behavior and nuclear development is an advantage to China!  You may think this is crazy, but China needs North Korea to keep Japan and South Korea preoccupied!  Look how much money and energy Japan is now spending, all because of North Korea.  Look how much time and GNP South Korea dedicates on defense, all because of North Korea!  By keeping its biggest economic rivals occupied with defense worries, China can hope to overtake both of these countries economically in time.  Of course China's own military build up is making these same countries nervous, but North Korea is a big help to China in this regard!  At the same time, both South Korea and Japan have struck lucrative business deals with China which benefits all sides.
     But, isn't China worried about North Korea going rogue, so to speak.  Attacking China with its nuclear weapons?  Perhaps there is some worry, but not really.  China knows full well that North Korea, which at this point is almost totally dependent on China for economic assistance, would be very unlikely to turn against its benefactor.  At the same time, it knows that North Korea cannot survive without China's help, having created a situation which has made it into a pariah of the world!
So, as weird and unlikely as it may sound, it is to China's advantage to have North Korea carry on as it has been doing.  A unified Korea would be a nightmare to China.  Just think how much more Korea could produce if it did not have to spend so much money on defense and at the same time gained all that additional manpower and space to build factories!  They would become a huge competitor to China on the world economy.
     Currently, the average family annual income in the United States is listed at around $53,000.  I am not too sure how they came up with that figure, it seems a bit high when you consider what the average salary is across the country.  But still, that is what they say it is.  The average income in Japan is listed at around $44,000, higher than UK or Germany.  The average income in South Korea is listed at about $37,000 and China, $17,000.  North Korea would be more like $2000!  So, as you can see, South Korea's and Japan's average income is more than double of China's.  China still has a way to go, yet they are one of the top economic powers in the world already!  It is simply not to their advantage to make things easier for Japan and Korea to increase the gap.  It is "good business" sense to provide a deterrent of some sort, to keep Japan and Korea at least partially in check lest they get so far ahead that China will not be able to catch up!
     So, the idea that China should be handed the responsibility of trying to disarm North Korea is ridiculous, it is simply not to their advantage!  China does not fear North Korea, it knows that North Korea would never attack China, but it would attack South Korea or Japan!  It is not that China wants North Korea to attack South Korea or Japan, that would not be good for business!  But it is to their advantage to have North Korea hanging around, rattling sabers once in a while and behaving like the nut case that it is!  At the same time, to do any negotiating with North Korea over the nuclear issue, China must be included. China is probably the only country that North Korea will still listen to, owing to its economic dependence!  There is this basic lack of understanding of history and the Chinese and Korean mind set by our politicians and leaders.  Small wonder historically China has repeatedly duped or taken us to the cleaners when we tried to deal with them, while North Korea has been a complete puzzle!
    

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