U.S. - China Relations

     I think everyone is more or less aware of the fact that U.S.- China relations have been somewhat strained lately.  The news media would like to create an impression that everything was nice and rosy until Trump administration came to Washington and started a confrontational policy with China.  Indeed, Trump himself has said things that raised the hackles of some Chinese leaders.  But the U.S.- China relations took a sour turn quite a while back.  China's insistence of claiming some uninhabited islands in South China Sea as their territory has been a source of constant disagreement with Japan.  Japan has claimed these islands for a long time, and U.S. recognizes these islands as Japanese territory.  Under the U.S.- Japan Security Agreement, U.S. is committed to help Japan protect its territory.  So, there is constant show of force by all parties involved with ships and planes being dispatch to the islands.  This has been going on for a number of years.
     The other thing that has been happening which the U.S. public has not been informed about by the news media with any degree of consistency, is that China has periodically tightened restrictions in various forms on American internet companies and other media outlets as well as on various nongovernmental organizations.  Tariffs on U.S. made goods have been stiff and continue to be high making it very difficult for U.S. products to be competitive.  Thanks largely to Chinese consumers' seemingly insatiable appetite for anything "American,"  U.S. products still manage to sell.  But it is an unfair tariff system that is lopsidedly in favor of domestically made products.  The situation reached a point where two years ago Obama Administration formed a Task Force to study and come up with a solution to the problem.  The Task Force included many China experts, including Winston Lord, the former U.S. Ambassador to China.  Not surprisingly, the Task Force's finding was that China's practices towards the U.S. was unfair and damaging to U.S. trade with that country.
     So, Trump's claim that our trade relationship with China is heavily in their favor is true.  We have been taken advantage of by China and continue to be "exploited" by them.  Sure, the American consumer is getting inexpensive products from China.  Should our trade agreement with China stop, the American consumer will suffer.  Yes, we will have to pay more for certain items that we are now getting cheaply from China.  But for that "advantage," we are being exploited by the Chinese in a major fashion.  There is no other word for it, exploitation is the only proper description of our trade relations with China.  China has put us in a position where we think we absolutely need all those things that we are getting from them!
     A year ago, before even the idea that Trump would be our president would have been inconceivable,  Steve Bannon, Trump's Chief Strategist, stated in a radio interview that we would be at war with China within 5 to 10 years in South China Sea.  I think Bannon was being overly dramatic.  Perhaps he was trying to grab the attention of listeners with a sound bite that would resonate.  But a year ago, hardly anyone paid any attention to what he said.  Today, of course, all of the Trump critics have jumped on the bandwagon and dug up the old tapes of that radio interview and are bandying about his predictions about war with China.  What they and the news media are now saying is, of course, that Trump and his people are driving us to a war with China!
     I don't believe we will go to war with China.  Perhaps an unfortunate incident might occur in South China Seas over those disputed islands and some trigger happy pilot or ship's gunner might open fire, causing an exchange of fire.  But a full blown war will not take place.  China's primary goal at present is to become the regional economic and military power.  I believe they are very close to being the regional economic power, having attained the status of world's second largest economy!  Militarily they have the largest army in the world, but they still lag behind many countries in technology and advanced weaponry.  China is a nuclear power, but its army is not as modern or technologically versed as the smaller South Korean army or Japanese army (Self Defense Force) and even Taiwanese army!  They have the bodies, the numbers, but still lack the more sophisticated training and weapons.  China has only one aircraft carrier to defend its seas.  To make up for lack of aircraft carriers, China has developed a system of establishing landing fields on the shores of outlying islands.  This is one reason why the disputed islands with Japan are so important to them.  It would give them landing fields for their aircrafts closer to Japan!
     Politically, China knows that it will not be able to sway either Japan or South Korea to join their camp, Japan and Korea, by virtue of the security agreements are officially tied to the U.S.  Of course, Taiwan is also out of their zone of influence.  So, China tries to win over other countries in the region.  They are very chummy with Philippines and generally are on good terms with other Southeast Asian countries.  Interestingly, the tiny city nation of Singapore is not in Chinese camp!  Surprisingly, or not surprisingly, Australia is very dependent on China for trade and has in many ways allied itself with China.  It is, of course, important for Australia to be on good terms with China, the military and economic power in the region.  So, if we get involved with China in a trade war or, god forbid, a shooting spat, don't count on Australia to take our side!  I know we share a common language and much of our entertainment industry has been bought up by Australian conglomerates, but when push comes to shove, and their survival is at stake, they will chose regional loyalty!
     All of the above is, of course, just supposition!  But our problems with China, and the continuing disagreements over trade practices is real, not a supposition.  Trump's claim that we are being taken to the "cleaners" by China is real as well.  Are we going to continue to be the "patsy" or are we going to change the arrangements that we have with China?  There's still a lot of talk about Russian hacking of our computers etc.  That is all true.  But China has been one of the biggest headaches when it comes to computer hacking.  They have constantly been trying to hack into our military and industrial computer systems to steal military and technology secrets.  They have been quite brazen about it!  I don't believe there will be an actual "shooting" war with China, but a trade war is very possible.  In fact, the trade war has already started!