Sunday, January 29, 2017

The New Lodge Act - MANVI of 2009

     Yesterday's blog was on the U.S. military and the need to increase its strength as well as pay for its members.  As far as increase in pay is concerned, all it takes is for Congress to vote-in a substantial increase, which they seem to do all the time for their own pay!  Increase in military pay does not require any special effort, just fund it and approve it!  As it stands, much of the military funding is spent on equipment, why not divert some of it for pay?  Of course, the way the U.S. government works, you can't just take money from one pot and put it in another.  The inflexible system that exists in our government on fiscal issues sometimes create ridiculous situations that are incredibly inefficient and stupid.  For instance, one section may be out of funding, desperately needing more funds to function properly, while another section is ordered to spend all the money before the end of the fiscal year, so as not to lose funding the following year, even when spending is not needed!  Those of us who have worked for the U.S. government, military or civilian, are well aware of such situations!
     Today's blog, could be considered Part Two of yesterday's blog, it is about personnel, i.e., recruitment of personnel for the military.  It is fine and dandy to say we will increase the size of the military, but without willing bodies in this all volunteer military that we have, we won't be able to increase the size of our military force.  Currently, it appears that there is a shortage of young men and women willing to serve in the military.  Part of the problem is, of course, low pay.  But the other problem is the lack of qualified individuals, those without criminal records, etc.  It seems that with the dramatic increase in drug usage in our society since the Vietnam War, more and more young people end up with drug offenses on their record.  So, not only does the military have a hard time recruiting because the pay is not adequate, but also because many willing young men and women do not qualify owing to drug offenses and other criminal records.
     I have previously blogged several times on the subject of the old Lodge-Philbin Act which was passed in 1951 and commonly referred to as just Lodge Act.  The initial idea for creating the Lodge Act was to allow the U.S. military to recruit Eastern European volunteers from Communist Bloc countries to serve in the U.S. Army.  This was done when it was found that there was an acute shortage of people in the army who had the language skills of those Communist Bloc countries.  Initially the recruitment was for army intelligence work.  Later it was expanded to just any service in the army.  However, most volunteers ended up with the then fledging Army Special Forces.  The Lodge Act allowed for recruitment of a sizable number of volunteers, but the army only managed a few hundred who mostly ended up in the Special Forces.  The problem was that there was opposition to the Lodge Act, fear that we would be creating a "Foreign Legion" like the French or Spanish, or those infamous Waffen SS units of Nazi Germany during WWII that were composed of foreign soldiers.  World War II was still fresh in the minds of many Americans!
     The whole idea that we would be creating a U.S. version of the Foreign Legion was a mistaken and misplaced perception.  The Foreign Legions of those other countries were/are (in case of France) separate units with the foreign volunteers kept separate, not integrated within the regular units.  Our Lodge Act volunteers were completely integrated within the U.S. Army and served along side of non-foreign soldiers.  In other words, a Lodge Act volunteer underwent the same training as a typical G.I. and served in the same units.  It just so happened that most of them volunteered to serve with the Special Forces!  I was fortunate enough to have served with a few of those Lodge Act volunteers and most of them, at least the ones I knew, were superb soldiers, who were in for the duration of their careers although they could have left the service after initial enlistment of five years!  Some became legendary figures during Vietnam War and rose in rank to higher levels.
     At least back in the day, and in the Special Forces, most of the Lodge Act volunteers had prior military service in their native country or with the French Foreign Legion!  The ones who had been with the FFL were all former NCOs while those who had service in their native land were former commissioned officers.  Some of these men went on to receive commissions in the U.S. Army and finished off their careers as field grade officers.  So, despite the small numbers, the Lodge Act volunteers proved to be a success story.  The Lodge Act expired long time ago and in my previous blogs I said that we should create another mechanism such as the Lodge Act to draw volunteers from other countries.  Well, it appears that there is such a mechanism called the Military Accessions Vital to National Interests (MANVI) which was introduced in 2009.  MANVI was introduced primarily to bring-in Arabic speakers into the military.  Just as in the time of Lodge Act it was found that the army lacked Eastern European language speakers, it took Pentagon almost eight years after the invasion of Iraq to decide that there was a shortage of Arabic speakers in our military!  The MANVI, unlike the Lodge Act which was only for the army, is for all branches of service.  However, apparently it is not very well advertised or well known and so far has had a minimal effect on recruiting Arabic speakers into our military.
     I think it would be worthwhile for Pentagon to push MANVI for recruitment of foreign nationals into our military, not just Arabic speakers.  We would not only get volunteers who will be speakers of languages that we need in our military, but we would be able to recruit those with prior service in their native military, giving us volunteers who will be well versed in military life.  Enlistment in our military is open only to U.S. citizens or Legal Permanent Residents (Green Card holders).  I have no doubt in my mind that if we open recruitment to foreign nationals, set some very rigid standards, we could end up with a lot of outstanding candidates for our military service, whatever the branch!  We shouldn't only look for volunteers with Arabic or other language speakers that we need.  I believe as long as we find volunteers who are willing to serve in our military and are well qualified, we should accept them.  We can count on having a lot of young men and women from Canada, UK, Australia, as a start, especially if we increase the pay!  But we will get them from all over the world.  It would definitely beef-up our military and at the same time provide a variety of linguists as well!

Saturday, January 28, 2017

The New U.S. Military - under Trump!

     It seems that Trump has, at least initially, shown interest in increasing the U.S. military strength as he had promised during his campaign.  One of his first official acts was to go to Pentagon and sign an Executive Order increasing the acquisition of various of military hardware for all branches of the service.  However, thus far he has done nothing about the most important component of the military - manpower.  The current headcount of U.S. military is considerably less than what it was even just a few years ago.  As of 2017, the U.S. Army is at its lowest level in manpower since before World War Two in 1940!  We all know what happened the following year in 1941 when Pearl Harbor was attacked by the Imperial Japanese Navy!  Our military strength was woefully low and the army in particular was terribly understrength.
     In 2009, the year Obama took office, the U.S. Army had 562,400 men and women, the Navy 324,239, the Marines 203,075, and the Air Force 331,700.  Today, after 8 years of Obama administration and troop reduction, the Army is down to 460,000, the Navy 322,000, the Marines 182,000, and the Air Force 317,000.  Obviously the Navy took the lightest hit in personnel reduction, but then, the last Joint Chief was Navy and fought mightily to retain Navy strength!
     The popular argument that the "modern" military is very hi-tech and does not require as many warm bodies is jusi a myth perpetrated by bean counters and those who are championing the use of more drones and other highly sophisticated new equipment.  Despite all this talk, the bottom line is still "boots on the ground."  If you take over real estate, you have to occupy it.  You can't fill it with hi-tech equipment.  You can most certainly use hi-tech equipment to replace human presence in some cases as it has been demonstrated successfully by the use of unmanned drones and surveillance.  However, it is still the human component, the soldier on the ground, the airman controlling the drone, etc., that is the most important element in the equation.  We should have learned a hard lesson from Iraq when we occupied the country with insufficient ground troops and allowed the situation to deteriorate to the point of a full blown insurgency!  So, regardless of how sophisticated and advanced the equipment may be, it is still the soldier, sailor, marine, and airman that is the most important component of the military organization!
     The problem that Pentagon is facing is that without the universal draft system, we cannot maintain a large military force with any degree of certainty.  The Marines have always had an excellent recruiting program and a PR campaign that consistently drew young men to enlist in the Corps.  Today the same program is also drawing a considerable number of young women.  The Army, Navy, and Air Force just never quite had that kind of recruiting power.  Still, the Air Force is able to recruit owing to its excellent reputation for technical training, which is also the case with the Navy.  The Navy has recently also gained some popularity with young men because of the way the SEALs have become cult figures.  Hollywood has helped a lot in recruiting young men as SEALs hopefuls.  Naturally, it isn't a great number and in the overall scheme of things, it really doesn't have that great of an impact.  The Army is the one that is taking the biggest hit in lack of interest among the younger population to enlist.
     Without a doubt, the major problem in recruiting young people into the U.S. military is the lack of competitive pay.  Our military pay has slipped badly in the last decade to a point where it is not competitive with even minimum wage jobs in the civilian world.  With the minimum wage at $15.00 an hour or hovering in that neighborhood, a 16 year old high school student can make more money flipping burgers at a fast food joint than an Army or Marine Private (or Navy or Air Force recruit)!  The so called "fringe benefits" of three square meals, a warm bed, and full medical coverage notwithstanding, a young man or a woman entering military service will make less money than the aforementioned 16 year old kid working at a fast food joint!  That is not much incentive to enlist!  A new enlistee in the U.S. military will earn $17,127 a year.  The per capita income in the U.S. is listed at $57,294 a year for 2016, which ranks 8th in the world!  In comparison Australia is ranked 12th in the world with a per capita income of $51,593.  Yet, a young man or a woman enlisting in the Australian military will start earning $31,509 a year, almost twice the amount paid by U.S. military!
The U.S. ranks 6th or 7th in the world when it comes to pay for the military!  Australia, Canada, UK, Germany, and France pay more than we do.  Yet, the per capita income for all of those countries is less, some much less than the U.S.!
     There is something terribly wrong when the richest country in the world (at least in real terms, I know that there are some oil rich countries that supposedly have a much higher per capita income.  But those are really not true figures!) cannot even pay a decent salary to its fighting men.  There are enlisted personnel with families who have to use food stamps!  Not long ago, in Germany, the local townspeople chipped-in to help struggling US army family members!  It truly was an embarrassment, and you would have thought that our government would have done something to correct such situations.  Well, temporarily the pay and allowances were increased and for a time the military appeared to be competitive with the civilian market.  But once again, it has slipped.  Just think about this.  Our military is behind in pay across the board, through all ranks.  A Colonel (0-6) in the UK military earns $123,996 a year before various allowances (housing, food, uniform, etc.).  The Canadian earns $115,434, the Australian $107,099, the French $91,282.  All of these pays are before allowances and in U.S. dollars.  The 0-6 in the U.S. military earns $61,128, less than half of what the British counterpart earns, and only about 70% of the French!  Let's hope the new administration will do something to correct this terrible disparity.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Will Our Policy in Asia Change?

     Will our policy in Asia be changing with the new administration?  That is an interesting question and one that will probably be answered within the first year of Trump administration.  Our new Secretary of Defense James Mattis will be leaving for Asia in a few days and visit South Korea first, followed by Japan, meeting with his counterparts to discuss security issues.  No doubt the visit is planned to send a message both to North Korea and China, that we will be staunchly supportive of those countries, despite all the talk about changing attitudes, etc.
     I believe that possibly the shift in our Asian policy began even before Trump took office officially when he took the congratulatory call from the President of Taiwan.  Trump also announced at the time that he will reconsider our policy toward China and Taiwan!  This, of course, created a stir and critics were quick to jump on the bandwagon to accuse Trump of not knowing what he was doing and creating a possible disaster in Asia.  Trump followed up his China remarks with statements that he felt that both Japan and South Korea needed to contribute more financially to the presence of our troops in their countries.  This again created some excitement and criticism of Trump.  So, it is claimed by some that Mattis's trip to South Korea and Japan is simply to assuage the possible damage that those earlier remarks may have caused, to sort of smooth the ruffled feathers of the Japanese and South Koreans.
     It may very well be true that Trump may have just spoken rashly (something that he seems to have knack for doing) and is now trying to repair any damage.  But it may also have been a calculated remark made to set the stage to gain some bargaining leverage.  After all, he has been a businessman all of his life, not a politician.  Good businessmen always leave room for themselves for bargaining maneuver, and Trump may have just done that with his remarks and phone conversation with Taiwan President.  He has already stated that he believed that our trading arrangement with China needed to be overhauled, that it was too one-sided in favor of China.
     According to some sources, South Korean military ranks anywhere between 4th and 11th place in the world military power rankings.  It is ranked above Israel.  Japan, which has been a toothless tiger until recently has dramatically improved its military capability since 2015 and some rank it just as high, if not higher than South Korea.  Taiwan too is ranked very high, despite its rather small military size of only 300,000 active duty personnel.  All three of these countries are highly technologically advanced and have very modern equipment.  As pure military powers they are perhaps not ranked as high as India or some other countries with huge armies.  But when you combine their technological capabilities and their economic power to back the military, they become much more capable and highly ranked. 
     India, Turkey, Iran, and other such countries with large armies just do not have the industrial complex to support the military for a prolonged period.  If they resort to using nuclear weapons then it would be a suicidal effort if used against another nuclear power.  A counter or a retaliatory nuclear strike by the enemy could conceivably paralyze their industrial complex in one fell swoop.  If India and Pakistan went to war again and decided to carryout nuclear strikes, the war would end after one strike by each side!  The same thing applies to North Korea.  Make no mistake about it, they are extremely dangerous and reckless.  But if they carried out a nuclear strike and U.S. and allies retaliated, that would essentially be the end of North Korea!
     Japan, despite its relatively small military, has fast become a very modern, capable military force.  Some experts predict that Japan could easily convert to a formidable military power in no time, given its vast industrial complex and wealth of the nation.  Since 2015, under Abe, Japan has been building its military rapidly, presently fielding a small but very modern, highly trained force.  South Korea has had a powerful army owing to its situation with North Korea.  Although South Korean army is not as large as their North Korean counterpart, they are, like the Japanese, very modern, well trained, and backed by a nation that, although small, is a world industrial power!  Taiwan, the smallest of the three, has gone somewhat unnoticed, overshadowed by its larger neighbor China, and the richer Japanese.  But Taiwan is a powerful state in its own right with a very efficient and effective modern industry that is fully capable of supporting its military.  Experts estimate that Taiwan could last a whole year in a full blown war against China, without any support or help from U.S. or other countries.
     A military alliance between Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would create a major problem for China and North Korea.  Already, those three countries have economic agreements, sort of a free trade type of arrangement, which allows its citizens free travel and even employment within the three countries.  It is an unprecedented arrangement that was quietly made without any announcements and has been in existence for a number of years.  So, speaking from trade and economic standpoint, China is already encircled partially by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.  Fortunately for China, those three countries also happen to be major trading partners with China.  But if a military alliance takes place with those three, supported by the U.S., it would be a major set back for China.  That is one reason why China is flexing its military muscles in the South China Sea region, squabbling over tiny artificial islands, etc.  Nothing would please China more than have U.S. pull its troops out of Japan and Korea and end its military ties with those countries as it had with Taiwan.
     Currently Taiwan has no known military ties with any country, although they have been buying hardware from us, which has been a sore point with China.  But should a military alliance take place with South Korea and Japan, then Taiwan would have much more access to military equipment and other material to strengthen its military.  A military alliance of sorts has now begun to take shape between Japan and South Korea, mainly thanks to North Korea's dangerous behavior and nuclear development.  It won't take much to formalize the arrangement, military exchanges are already taking place.  If Taiwan is drawn into the arrangement, then the tri-country alliance that China fears will take place.  Taiwan, incidentally, has been involved in supporting our efforts both in the Korean War and Vietnam.  Their participation was very clandestine and mostly involved Special Operations type activity.  South Korea was, of course, actively involved in Vietnam and provided the largest number of combat troops after U.S. and South Vietnam!  Japan provided transport (ships) and other industrial equipment during Korean War and also during Vietnam.  So, all three countries have been involved in the past supporting our efforts in Asia and indirectly or directly, against China!
     Is this the plan of our new Asian policy?  Is the new administration trying to create new alliances and shift the balance of power in East Asia?  Should the new triple Asian alliance occur, it would certainly give us more leverage in any kind of negotiations with China!  On the otherhand, it could be just that Trump misspoke and has sent Mattis to South Korea and Japan to make amends.  Its hard to say at this point.  I would like to think that our new leaders in Washington are capable of out-maneuvering and out-negotiating the opposition, composed of smart, clever individuals who can go toe to toe with the Chinese on the negotiating table.  In the past we have been repeatedly taken to the "cleaners" by the Chinese and other countries (Iran, for example!).  I'd hate to think that we are back to square one with bumbling individuals, who think they are smarter than they are and the only difference is that the new set of players are mostly businessmen instead of lawyers!  I  hope not.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Obama's Final Acts

     Obama's final days in the White House were not without some controversy, at least in the eyes of his critics.  Perhaps none of his last acts were quite as visible as his commutation of sentences and pardons for various individuals.  Obama exercised the presidential power to commute sentences and to give pardons to more individuals than any other previous president.  In one day alone he commuted 231 sentences and in one week pardoned 64!  In total, Obama managed to commute sentences or pardon 1,927 individual cases.
     Vast majority of these cases were drug related. Some were definitely deserving commutations or pardons, such as the person who was convicted of defacing coins!  There were other silly and archaic sentences that were commuted or pardoned such as cases involving adultery, selling firearms without a federal license (which is really not required by law, and something that takes place almost daily!), and other rather silly charges.  But there were some that were quite serious and frankly, puzzling as to why he commuted or pardoned the case.  None were as controversial as the case involving the commutation of sentence of Bradley (Chelsea) Manning, the convicted Army PFC who released over 200,000 emails and other sensitive video and printed material to WikiLeaks.  Although it hasn't been proven yet, it was believed that his release of classified material may have cause the death of some U.S. military personnel!  The charges against him/her were serious enough to warrant consideration of death sentence! 
     The prosecution wanted to push for espionage charges with aiding and abetting the enemy as the main charge.  However, as in many such cases, particularly ones that are heavily covered by the media, the charges were ultimately watered-down and he was convicted on lesser charges of having caused damage to the U.S. military and government and sentenced to 35 years in Federal Prison.  Ironically there was sympathy for Manning in some circles, particularly from the media which portrayed him as a misunderstood, unhappy individual who wanted to be a woman rather than being a man.  In fact, there was so much noise coming from the media over this issue that it almost overshadowed the very serious charges against him! With the help of constant media chatter about his confused sexual identity and unhappiness, Manning received gender reassignment with medical treatment and ultimately surgery to convert to a woman.  Thus he became "Chelsea" Manning rather than Bradley, the name under which he was born and lived his life to that point!
     Manning underwent the expensive medical treatment and surgery with gender reassignment all while he was in Federal Prison, all at tax payers' expense!  What a country!  Our government really knows how to use tax payers' money wisely.  But then, that wasn't enough.  In his final days in the office, Obama commuted Manning's sentence, shortening it from the original 35 years to where he will be released on May 17th of this year!  So, Chelsea (former Bradley) Manning, after having committed what many considered to be treason, and sentenced to 35 years, gets out of jail in four months after receiving very expensive medical treatment and surgery at tax payers' expense. 
     It is truly puzzling why Obama chose to commute Manning's sentence, why he singled out Manning from all others who are in prison on similar charges!  The military and the intelligence community was in an uproar over Obama's act.  But, like everything else, it sort of faded away because Trump haters are getting so much attention lately.  But that wasn't all that Obama did as his last act in the office.  He did other things that were quite disturbing.  In his last few months in the office Obama did several things that if not angered, puzzled some.  His so-called "betrayal" of Israel was big news for a short while.  I blogged on it earlier, saying that he seemed to openly favor Palestinians over Israelis on this issue.  In fact, he did many things throughout his tenure as our president that seem to favor the Islamic side over Israel. 
     Two of the most die-hard haters of Israel are Iran and Palestinians.  When Kerry struck the Iran Nuclear Deal, it made Israel very unhappy and Netanyahu went on record to say that it was the worst "deal" every made!  Iran, like Palestinians, has zero tolerance for Israel and "Death to Israel" is the standard saying in that country!  Now the word leaked out that Obama managed to release $221 Million to Palestine before he left office.  Congress has been blocking the release of those funds and Obama managed to sneak it by with an executive order before he left the White House.
     Both the commutation of sentence for Manning and the release of funds to Palestine were done against the wishes of vast majority in the government, and the American public, I might add.  Yet, Obama went ahead, almost as a defiant act.  Some say that it was a perfect illustration of Obama's arrogance, something that he has demonstrated during his entire presidency.  It was perhaps his biggest weakness during his eight years, his arrogance.  The arrogance of a president is usually the downfall, that is what happened to Richard Nixon and almost happened to Bill Clinton.  Obama, on the otherhand, seemed to have survived his eight years despite obvious show of arrogance on his part.  It is the media that has brought down the presidency in modern times, but the media has always favored Democratic Party presidents, so Bill Clinton survived his scandals, and Hillary almost got elected, if you believe the media.  Obama got a pass on just about everything.  Another president, especially of Republican Party, would have been run out, but Obama got a pass!  Now, Trump is clearly in the bullseye of the media.  Trump does come off as arrogant and does shoot from the hip, saying things that he later needs to, if not retract, at least try to rephrase!  Let's see if he gets a pass like Obama did.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

North Korea, a "Lost Cause?"

     I will begin the new era, i.e., new U.S. President in office, with a blog on the North Korean issue.  The problem with North Korea, their nuclear built-up, is something that has haunted not only the previous administration, but goes back to the Clinton era.  It seems that for the past quarter of a century or so, ever since North Korea's nuclear development became known, we have been unable to establish any sort of an agreement or an understanding that would curb their nuclear development.  We first dealt with the unstable, crazy Kim Jong Il, the father of the current psychotic leader, Kim Jong Un.  The Clinton administration supposedly struck some sort of a deal, at least it was announced as a "success," which obviously it was not!  We imposed extremely harsh sanctions on North Korea, much harsher than anything that we did with Iran or Cuba.  Yet they were able to survive all that because of their economic ties with China.
     A year ago the Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, reported to the House Armed Services Committee that in his opinion, North Korea was a much more dangerous and important nuclear adversary than Iran.  Yet, it seems we spent more time and energy to "de-nuclearize" Iran by striking the now famous Iran Nuclear Deal.  Clapper reported at that time that although Iran's nuclear development may have gone dormant after the "deal," there was no way to really verify if they had stopped nuclear development.  Remember, the agreement was that Iran would mostly "self-inspect" for possible violations of the agreement.  By the way, Iran has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the region, and we did nothing to reduce their missile inventory!
     A month before our Presidential Elections took place, DNI Clapper once again reported to the Armed Services Committee and talked about North Korea's advancement in nuclear development since his last report some nine months earlier.  He pointed out that although we had been counting on China to control North Korea, it was in fact in China's best interest to keep North Korea in the position that it is now!  When we had deployed the THAD anti missile system in South Korea and Japan, China protested, because the THAD radar system could penetrate into China's defensive system!  So, the idea that China would do something to stop North Korea in its nuclear development is not realistic.  North Korea at this point is almost completely dependent on China for economic assistance, the only country that trades openly with them!  Clapper suggested that the idea of negotiating with North Korea on the nuclear issue was a "lost cause."  This remark set off a chain of commentary by news media, which unfortunately, has been lost in the midst of all the news about our Presidential Elections and other things that took place, like terrorist attacks!
     What DNI Clapper meant was that as long as North Korea had China in its corner, all the harsh sanctions were not going to help as much as we think.  In order to successfully negotiate any kind of an agreement, we would have to offer them something more than just lifting the sanctions.  One of the things that would help would at the same time alienate our ally in the south, the Republic of Korea.  North Korea desperately wants to be recognized as a legitimate state.  That is why they always insist that we, the U.S. must be the key representative in any sort of negotiations.  We tried the multi national approach, including all of the countries in the region, but it didn't work.  They didn't care about the other countries, even China, their main economic lifeline, didn't matter as much as our presence, our recognition of their existence and status as a legitimate country.
     Unfortunately, we run into the very same problem that we do with the "one China" policy.  We cannot grant North Korea the kind of recognition they want without seriously damaging our ties and relations with South Korea.  I hope that our new administration realizes the importance of trying to resolve the situation with North Korea.  It has been ignored for too long by previous administrations, almost seemingly waived off as not being all that important.  It was a huge mistake.  What it has done is create the monster that we now have, a rogue nuclear power in the region!
     Although North Korea had threatened to "nuke" the inauguration, no one really thought they would do that.  It was obviously designed to draw attention, nothing more.  "Experts" predicted that they would probably launch a missile test or something, but that has not happened.  All has been quiet since the inauguration.  It is apparent that they are waiting to see what would be the first move of the new administration.  Hopefully Trump will take North Korea seriously and try to come up with a solution.  It would require some very hard core negotiations and there will be some ground giving as in all transactions.  But hopefully Trump's negotiators will be better than their predecessors and we will not pull another Iran Nuclear Deal.  We can't afford to have two disastrous nuclear deals with rogue states at the same time!  Let's wait and see, but not too long!

Saturday, January 7, 2017

The "Decapitation Unit"

     I thought I would give this blog the title of the military unit that was supposedly created recently by South Korea to eliminate North Korean leadership in case of war.  As one reporter stated, South Korea's "Decapitation Unit" is not some sort of a new guillotine, but rather a nick-name given to a special commando unit created to carry out a very special mission - that of assassinating North Korean leadership in time of war.  This news, incidentally, popped-up at the same time that networks were reporting North Korean missile testing, and our own news over Russian hacking which has dominated the headlines.  Naturally, with all the coverage on Russian hacking, topped off with the horrible domestic terrorism case of mass shooting at Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood Airport in Florida yesterday, all of the stuff on the problems in Korea quickly faded.
     The information about North Korean missiles has been, if anything, uneven.  Some experts claim that North Korea has yet to develop successful ICBMs that can reach our shores.  Others insist that they already have the capability but are purposely being mum about it.  I am sure that truth lies somewhere in-between and I would rather err on the side of caution and think that they do have the capability to reach our shores.  Perhaps they are not able to do this consistently, and are working on developing a more consistent and reliable system.  But nevertheless, I wouldn't wave it off and most certainly consider them very dangerous and capable of launching missiles at our West Coast.
     Right now is a very dangerous time for South Korea and U.S.  As many have already stated, we cannot count on China to intervene or stop North Korea from doing what it wants to do, develop nuclear weapons or launch an attack.  China is too busy making money off North Korea to whom China is its only major trading partner.  At the same time, they do not want a unified Korea at their border which will be U.S. friendly. 
     There is no doubt that should unification take place, South Korea and its economy and political system will dominate and the pro-Chinese North Korean system will fade away, just as it happened in Germany.  In short, a unified Korea would be a U.S. friendly democratic country, not a communist state!  The Chinese know this, so the idea of trying to convince them to keep North Korea from making nuclear weapons is not realistic.  Just as we want South Korea to be a deterrent in the region to China and Russia, China wants North Korea to remain in their corner by being a deterrent with nuclear weapons!
     Almost 50 years ago, in January of 1968, North Korea launched an attack on the South Korean Presidential Palace, the Blue House.  This attack was not something that was done on the spur of the moment or caused by an angry outburst from Kim Il Song or his unstable son, Kim Jong Il.  It was in planning stages for a long time!  North Korea was waiting for an opportune moment to strike what they felt was a surgical, quick blow to South Korea that would collapse the regime.  They believed that if they succeeded in killing the South Korean President Park, it would bring down the country.  It was a coordinated effort with North Vietnam and China, who of course supported both countries! 
     South Korea was going through some difficult times in the late 1960s.  President Park Chung Hee had committed troops to Vietnam in support of U.S. effort since 1964.  South Korea, aside from the South Vietnamese, had the largest military force after U.S.  South Korea maintained about 50,000 combat troops in Vietnam from 1964 until 1972.  There was a lot of unrest and unhappiness with the Park regime in South Korea, so much so that he even established a curfew to discourage meetings that might bring about further unrest.  On the U.S. side, the anti-Vietnam War movement in America had reached its peak and our commitment of troops and equipment was at its peak as well.  North Korean leadership felt that with all the attention on Vietnam, U.S. wouldn't be able to do much in Korea, and South Korea was in the midst of economic crisis with a very unpopular president.
     After lengthy training on a carefully prepared exact mock-up of the South Korean Blue House, a special unit of 31 North Korean commandos, Unit 124, was dispatched to South Korea.  They crossed the DMZ, infiltrating through the U.S. 2nd Infantry Division positions and made their way to Seoul.  On January 21st 1968, the same day that the Battle of Khe Sanh began in Vietnam and ten days before the Tet Offensive launched, the Unit 124 struck the grounds of the Blue House.  After a somewhat protracted and bloody firefight that stretched for many miles, the attack was repelled with no harm to the president or any staff members.  However, 26 South Korean soldiers and policemen were killed as well as 4 U.S. servicemen.  There were also 66 wounded military and police personnel and 24 civilian (bystander) casualties.  Of the 31 North Koreans, 29 were killed, one captured, and one managed to escape and make it back to North Korea where he was feted as a national hero despite the failed mission. 
     In response to that incident, South Korea immediately launched a program to recruit and train special troops for a similar mission in North Korea, and it was nick-named "Decapitation Unit."  So, the current talk about a "newly" created unit and how it wasn't supposed to be ready until years from now is not true!  South Korea has had a special unit since that North Korean raid.  I suppose that South Korean government didn't want their enemy to know that they had such a unit.  But then, there were several movies and TV dramas made about the "Special Unit" through the years, so it is doubtful that the North Koreans didn't know about it.  I believe that the recent announcement by South Korea about the existence of the "Decapitation Unit" was simply a warning to North Korea.  It is a warning that if North Koreans try something like they did back in 1968, South Korea would respond in kind.  Recently, North Korea has been showing TV footage of their "special unit" practicing assault on mock Blue House that they built, an exact replica!
     As I said earlier, now is a very dangerous time for South Korea and U.S. on that peninsula.  The South Korean President Park is currently undergoing impeachment hearings and the country appears to be on shaky political grounds.  The U.S. may not be involved in a war in Vietnam, but we do have several nasty little wars going on in the Middle East and more importantly, we have just undergone a presidential election with a contentious aftermath among our politicians.  It doesn't help that even some members of the general population are still carrying on about the election results. To an outsider, especially for someone from a closed society like North Korea, unfamiliar with our psyche and our somewhat bi-polar attitude about politics, America may seem to appear on the verge of collapse.  So to them, this is a perfect time to carry out some sort of strike against South Korea or even the U.S.
     I guess we are not the only ones that can't seem to learn from history.  But 49 years is a long time and I seriously doubt that many folks here can recall (except for those who served in the military during that period) the North Korean Raid on the Blue House, or for that matter, the Siege of Khe Sahn and the Tet Offensive that same year, 1968.  The current North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who is barely 30 years old, was not even a gleam in his crazy father's eye in 1968!  North Korea seems to feel it is prime time for some nefarious activity.  They have already demonstrated this by expediting missile testing and other unfriendly activity towards South Korea. 
     I have said many times that we seem to have a difficult time understanding the thought process and general mentality of others.  Well, it works both ways.  We know that in a democratic system, despite all sorts of problems such as impeachment hearings and what have you, it is very unlikely that the government will fall if it has a firm foundation.  South Korea has a firm foundation, so despite all of its presidential scandals, impeachment and all, it will not collapse!  America will not fall apart because we have all these disagreements and nasty squabbling in the aftermath of the elections.  History has shown that we are very resilient and are capable of withstanding political scandals and other problems that may very well bring down lesser systems.  The North Koreans, as well as Russians, don't seem to be able to grasp that.  Like everyone else, they too judge everyone by their own standards. They know that their system could not withstand the same problems, as Russia has experienced it recently!  So, they believe we too would collapse if faced with same problems.  They are as much at fault at not understanding, comprehending the psyche, the mentality of others as we are!

Thursday, January 5, 2017

Russian "Hacking" of Elections

     I have been watching the Senate hearings on Russian "hacking" earlier on CNN.  Although CNN is openly anti Trump and known to lean left, they could not very well control what was being said by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and the Director of National Security Agency (DNSA).  What was abundantly clear and repeated by DNI James Clapper was that the so-called Russian "hacking" had not in anyway affected the outcome of the elections!  He kept referring to Russian "hacking" as a "passive" activity and that it was not espionage!  What he did say was that when the report was completed, it would show Russia's "motivation."  I am not too sure what he meant by "motivation" in this case.  I have no doubt that if they could, Russia would do something to weaken our position to elevate their own standing in the world.  However, if I am to believe what the DNI and DNSA said in the hearings, the Russians did not succeed and had no affect on the outcome of the elections.  It would indeed be difficult, in my opinion, to sway the elections as claimed by some, through "passive" activity!  I think we should do all we can to prevent incursions by Russians, or anyone else for that matter, into our cyber space! But in view of what the DNI said about Russian "hacking,"  the expulsion of 35 Russian officials and possible imposition of other sanctions is truly an overkill, an overreaction, and makes us appear petty and silly.
     As expected, the Senators from both parties spent more time grandstanding than getting anything really accomplished.  In particular, Hillary Clinton's ex-running mate spent considerable time talking about the 1972 and 74 "break-ins" at the Democratic Party headquarters, I suppose trying to compare Russian "hacking" with what took place over 40 years ago!  He didn't make much sense, but then he didn't make much sense when he was a Vice Presidential candidate!  To be fair, no one really asked interesting questions except for Senator Cruz, who asked the DNI about the identity of major hackers of our military and government computer systems.  Not surprisingly, Russia and China were at the top of the list, followed by, yes, you guessed it, Iran and Cuba.  Iran and Cuba, two countries that became our "friends" recently, although Iran is still calling us the "Great Satan!"  I guess we haven't given them enough money yet for them to stop calling us names.  I would have thought that North Korea would have made the top four, but I guess not.  According to the DNSA who happens to be also our Director for Cyber Security, there are also European countries, our friends, who are hacking into our systems.  Coincidentally, Russia owns several TV stations in Western European countries and is able to broadcast its propaganda without having to "hack" into their computer systems!
     I don't know if most Americans are aware or not, but more than likely the next President of France will be someone who has been openly funded by the Russians!  It is a given that in the French elections of April 2017, Francois Fillon will come out a winner.  Fillon, incidentally, is a far right candidate, very anti Muslim immigration!  Interestingly, the socialist or leftist candidates, including the incumbent President Hollande, were not supported by the Russians.  Fillon believes that Assad should be ousted and that ISIS should be the main target in Syria.  So, if you're looking for a "Manchurian Candidate," Francois Fillon would fit the bill, sort of.  It is predicted that once Fillon takes office, the European part of sanctions against Russia for its misbehavior in Ukraine will cease, and more than likely, the other participants in the sanctions will not complain!  This means that for all practical purposes, we will be the only country still involved in sanctions against Russia.  Of course if Obama imposes additional sanctions as his parting shot for the so-called "hacking," we will be the only one with heavy sanctions against Russia on two counts, Ukraine and cyber attacks!  The latest sanctions appear to be motivated mainly by personal animosity and dislike, sort of "sticking it" to Putin before leaving office! 
     The U.S. should not let Russia just slide if their so-called "hacking" was so massive (and still going on, according to DNSA) although according to DNI, their hacking had not affected the elections which it supposedly targeted.  The proper response for us should have been to respond in kind, a massive cyber attack by us, which we are perfectly capable of carrying out, more so than anyone else in the world!  We were able to stop the Iranian nuclear weapons development through cyber attacks, and no doubt have conducted many more such actions to other countries.  We will probably do that anyway!  So the expulsion of Russian officials was nothing but show and tweaking Putin's nose. There really doesn't seem to be a real reason for the massive PNG (persona non grata)act, except as a personal gesture!
     If anybody in America is surprised over Russia's involvement in French elections and the so-called "Manchurian Candidate," need I remind you that we have been doing that sort of thing as "nation building" since the end of World War Two.  In some cases, we were involved in violent removal of a President of a nation that we did not like and replaced them with our choice.  I know, the new leaders were selected through "free" elections, but nevertheless, they were our choices, although some of them ended up "rogue!"  I won't list the names and countries, there are just too many.  So let's not get too riled up over what is happening in France.  Russia is only doing what we have been and are still doing.
     The bottom line, after all the noise and excitement, and anger, over Russian "hacking," it appears that it was more of a "perceived" damage.  It did not affect our elections as some would like to claim, at least not according to our top source in these matters, the DNI.  No doubt when the final report emerges at the end of this week, it will identify Russia's "motivation" behind this "hacking" that has caused minor hysteria in some circles and expenditure of tax payers' money for lengthy hearings and investigations.  I don't mean to make light of what supposedly took place and is still taking place, according to DNI and DNSA.  But it appears that the so-called hacking had no affect on the outcome of elections, and despite what some say, did not unveil a "Manchurian Candidate" in the US. 
     Trump may be a lot of things, and indeed he has shown many faces during this election campaign.  But no, he is not Putin's man as some claim and he is no "Manchurian Candidate."  He may indeed show a friendlier side to Putin, for whatever reason, but I doubt seriously if he will be "taken-in" by Putin and become his lap dog.  Trump may be many things, good and bad, but above all, he is no fool.  He may appear rash and say some unlikely things at times, even putting his foot in his mouth.  But he is, above all a very shrewd individual who has survived in life depending on his native intuitiveness and intelligence.  Let's at least give him a chance to show what he can do.  This attitude that "he is not my president," "I will never support him," is just plain silly and immature.  It is no different than saying that you would move to Canada if he was elected.  Just how many of those luminaries have moved since making that declaration?  Let's not get carried away, let's at least give him a chance.  After all, at least 50% of the nation is behind him!
    

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

What Will Trump Do About North Korea?

     The news few days ago was that North Korea had tested ICBMs capable of reaching our West Coast.  Since it is more or less agreed that they have nuclear weapons and are capable of having the warheads carried by their missiles, this latest development is indeed alarming.  I have said earlier that North Korea had the missiles capable of reaching our shores and this latest test only confirmed my earlier fears.
     North Korea is a rogue nation, make no mistake about it.  It is ostensibly under the influence of China (earlier we though Russia had some influence, but we were mistaken), but now China itself admits that they have very little control, if any, over what Kim Jong Un and his gang decide to do.  China has always been historically concerned more about commerce and economic gain than anything else.  For a brief period, from 1949 when PRC got its start until about the late 1980s, China really did not have much of an economic clout.  Today, however, it is the world's number two economic power, only behind the U.S. and soon to become the number one economic power!  It is not about to give up its position and it is actively involved in trading with North Korea.  China is North Korea's lifeline at this time, and they are not about to stop trading with this rogue nation, because being its main trading partner, it is just too profitable.
     If for whatever reason China decides not to carry on their very profitable and thriving trade relations with North Korea, then North Korea will be forced to go elsewhere to survive!  North Korea is already selling weapons, illegally, to some nations through third parties, sometimes even fourth or fifth parties.  The "end user" route is so convoluted and complicated that it is very, very difficult to trace.  But through this complicated route, North Korea is able to sell its SCUD missiles and katyusha rockets to various other rogue states.  During the first Gulf War, Saddam Hussein's rockets were mostly North Korean.  The Hamas in the Palestinian zone are armed with North Korean katyusha rockets which they fire periodically and indiscriminately into the Israeli zone.  So, although North Korea gets most of its money by trading with China, it earns also a considerable amount through weapons sales.  So far, as far as it is known, they have not sold any nuclear weapons.  However, should their trade with China be disrupted, you can count on seeing North Korean nukes appearing in the hands of terror groups!
     Sanctions against North Korea have been brutal, and except for China, no one else has really been able to trade with them.  What few joint venture operations that the North had with the South was brought to an end because of serious differences other than political.  Mainly it was that the North was demanding a larger cut of profits with lesser contribution on their part.  Not a very reasonable demand but very predictable and typical of that regime.
     The U.S. has built up the military defenses around the region and has encouraged and helped Japan to beef-up its defense capability.  Everybody appears to be in the "war mode" and scrambling for more weaponry, more defensive measures.  North Korea, in response, is of course doing the same and increasing its forces along the DMZ and moving more missile batteries and other weapons closer to the south as well as the eastern coast facing Japan.  North Korea has a standing army that is over a million, larger than the combined forces of South Korea, Japan, and what we have in the region.  "Experts" keep saying that their army is not "modern" like ours and our allies, and that we are technologically superior.  Well, we were technologically superior to the North Korean and Chinese forces during Korean War, and look what it got us?
     Trump's administration is going to have a difficult time trying to figure out how to resolve this problem on the Korean peninsula.  The so-called "Chinese Option," having China exert its influence to control North Korea is not going to work, hopefully the new administration will realize that.  The sanctions haven't really worked except to make life miserable for the innocent population.  Further sanctions and using the "Chinese Option" might drive North Korea to selling its nuclear weapons to anyone willing to pay!  Building up the defenses any further is really not an option.  At this point, many believe that further increase in defensive built up is not going to help.
     That leaves only one option, and it is not an option at all!  It means carrying out a preemptive strike against North Korea to destroy their nuclear capability.  That essentially means launching a war with no guarantee that it will not trigger a nuclear response from North Korea before we can destroy all of their weapons or capability!  Do we know where all of their nuclear facilities are located?  Do we know for sure where all their launch sites are?  We must have rock solid intelligence in this area to be able to carry out a preemptive strike.  The so-called "shock and awe" approach that we used so successfully in Iraq is not going to work in North Korea!  More than a decade ago when North Korea started to make noise about nuclear weapons again, a possible preemptive strike was discussed but quickly abandoned.  The then Secretary of Defense, known for his rather undiplomatic use of language, said that we must not confuse the North Koreans with Iraqis!  He said that unless the preemptive strike knocks out all of their capabilities immediately, we will be in for a long and bloody, and costly conflict!
     The Trump administration will indeed be facing a very, very difficult situation with North Korea.  They could, of course, ignore the whole thing as it has been ignored for the past eight years, and let the situation stew longer.  What that would do would be to create an even more dangerous North Korea that will have more time to make more bombs and develop even better missiles to carry their warheads!  Not a very promising situation.  Let's see what the new administration will do.

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Small Minds at the Highest Places

     It seems that this election and the subsequent results have brought out the worst in mean spirited, small-minded people, continually trying to not just discredit and defame the incoming administration,  but actually undermining it at the expense of our national prestige and national security!  With a bit over two weeks left until inauguration, there are still vicious comments and constant harping on negative aspects of everything to do with Trump from those who can't seem to let go!  To make matters worst, the lame duck administration appears to be doing its best to undermine the incoming group.  Despite all the talk about "cooperation," the reality is that Obama Administration has done nothing to ease the transition, rather, it is apparently determined to leave some serious problems for Trump.
     The worst of the problems that Obama Administration is leaving for Trump is what transpired at the UN a short while ago when US, for the first time in over a half a century, abstained from casting its veto against an anti Israel resolution of the Security Council.  I don't think most people in America realize the seriousness of this situation, the gravity of the fact that U.S. failed to back Israel by casting a veto.  Essentially, in abstaining to vote, the U.S. has given the rest of the anti-Israeli sector (which incidentally includes most European nations) the go-ahead to push for criminalizing the Israeli nation, for establishment of settlements in occupied territories.  The Palestinians, and the rest of the anti Israeli sector has long wanted to take Israel to the International Court at Hague over this issue.  The thing that kept them from doing it was that the resolution to declare Israeli settlements illegal could not pass in the UN Security Council because U.S. would veto it each time it was introduced.  Now, it seems, things have changed dramatically.
     Back in 2012, during his re-election, Obama stated at an international conference that U.S. would always "have Israel's back."  Back then he needed the backing of the Jewish community in the U.S.  His relationship with Netanyahu was rocky at best, at all times.  That statement seemed to calm the Israelis somewhat and Netanyahu even went on to say some kind things about Obama.  Obama got his wish and received the backing of the American Jews who helped him get re-elected.  Now, of course, he can't run for the third term, so I guess his true feelings about Israel and the Jews are showing.
     What U.S. did to Israel is plain and simple betrayal!  It is even worse than what Nixon did to Taiwan back in the day!  As I stated earlier, I don't think many Americans realize the extent of the damage that was caused by that simple act of abstaining from voting in the UN.  Kerry in his usual manner stumbled verbally in his explanation and justification of the U.S. action (or no action in this case!).  Although I don't believe it to be true, but those conspiracy theorist who insist that Obama is actually a Muslim determined to turn U.S. into a Muslim nation may have gained some credibility in this latest case.  In his last term, Obama has legitimized Iran by striking that ridiculous Iran Nuclear Deal.  There was no cause for it, Iran was not on the verge of developing a nuclear bomb and the sanctions were working, yet, for some unaccountable reason we struck this deal, gave them billions!  Now, after all this time, we suddenly turn our backs on Israel, a country that has been our only ally in the region for over a half a century.  A country that has been our steadfast friend all these years, we suddenly turn our backs on them and favor Palestine.  Who wouldn't think that there was something going on?  Like I said, I don't believe all those conspiracy theorists, but, it is mighty tempting, given the circumstances!
     There is no doubt that Russians were involved in hacking into our systems, they have been doing this for over a decade, ever since they developed the capability.  But so have the Chinese, the North Koreans, and yes, some of our "friends" in Europe!  Oh, by the way, we have been hacking into everyone's systems long before they started on us, mainly because we developed the technological know-how before them!  So, although Russians no doubt hacked into our system, I doubt very seriously if it truly affected the outcome of the elections as some claim!  Even one of our own Senators stated recently that what the Russians did was perhaps a service to the American public when they revealed some of the illegal activities!  Now, there are members of our Congress and Senate that are using this as an excuse for grandstanding for their own political gain.  Obviously they are trying to show their constituents how they "care" and are protecting the nation.  I am not saying that we should ignore what the Russians did.  What we should be doing is trying to develop a more secure system!  This business of kicking out 35 Russian intelligence members is nothing but another form of grandstanding, a big show!  It won't change anything.  But it has gone a few more steps into damaging our relations with Russia.
     Obama, it seems, is trying to leave as big mess as possible for Trump to inherit.  He hasn't done anything on the Foreign Affairs end of our government's business during his eight years so he is leaving even a bigger mess.  When he came into office eight years ago, the two foreign leaders with whom he clashed immediately were Putin of Russia and Netanyahu of Israel.  Throughout the eight years there were attempts to repair the damage but it seems it didn't improve much.  Now, before his departure, as if thumbing his nose at his replacement, he has made the situation even more difficult.  Although he has made it more difficult for Trump, it was no favor to our nation!  It was also his way of getting back at the two people with whom he does not get along, a mutual feeling, I might add.  Obviously, the welfare of the nation did not play as big a role as his personal vendetta.  This was a pay back to Netanyahu and Putin for all the snubs, true or perceived, and of course, pay back to Trump as well.  Truly an act of a small minded person.