Recently, there's been an awful lot of talk about how it is now the most dangerous time ever when it comes to the situation with North Korea. It seems everyone, particularly Trump critics, are saying that we are on the verge of Armageddon, the Third World War, and that Trump and his policies are going to bring about a war. Trump's administration doesn't help matters by saying things that sound ominous and foreboding, when it comes to the current situation, but then, they are only stating the facts in this case. We have a naval task force with a nuclear aircraft carrier and a nuclear submarine near North Korean waters and have set up the most advanced anti missile system in South Korea. North Korea, in the meantime, is flexing its muscles and firing off missiles in a series of provocative tests and keeps holding military parades to show off its hardware.
There is no doubt that the situation today on that small peninsula is very dangerous with both sides on the edge of their nerves. However, in reality, this situation is no more dangerous than it has been in the past since the cease fire in 1953! The state of war has always existed. What took place at Panmunjom was a cease fire agreement, nothing more. It was not the ending of the war, merely an agreement to stop shooting for a time being! This cease fire agreement had been broken numerous times, each time by the North Koreans. Yes, the situation today is very dangerous, but it has been this way for over a half a century! Perhaps because there are now nuclear weapons involved that it is considered more dangerous, but otherwise, nothing really is all that different. I think all those people who refer to the current situation as the most dangerous have either forgotten or don't know their history!
Let's just take a quick look at the past and the numerous incidents that took place that could have led to a full scale war! Right from the start after the cease fire in 1953, there were hostile engagements, firefights between the two sides. Initially there were no fences or barbwire to separate the two sides, so quite frequently, the North Koreans would infiltrate across the DMZ and engage South Korean or U.S. troops in skirmishes. This was so common that it was rarely even reported outside of Korea! Then the first major incident took place when in 1967 North Korean commandos infiltrated into South Korea, into Seoul and conducted a raid on the Blue House, the South Korea's presidential palace and government seat! More than two hundred South Koreans were killed or injured, mostly civilians, and two U.S. soldiers were killed in a firefight! This incident could have easily escalated into a full blown conflict, but it did not. Cooler heads prevailed and nothing came of that incident. Then in 1968 the North Koreans seized the U.S. spy ship, USS Pueblo and its 83 crew members off the North Korean coast. One U.S. crew member was killed and the rest were imprisoned and tortured for 11 months before a release was negotiated. If ever an act of war was committed directly against the U.S., that was it! Yet, nothing happened, no U.S. military intervention or reaction. A year after the "Pueblo Incident", an EC-121 aircraft was shot down by North Koreans killing all 31 U.S. crew members. Again, nothing happened as a result.
Following those two incidents, the seizure of the U.S. ship and the shooting down of the aircraft, there were numerous incidents on the DMZ. There were gunfire exchanges almost weekly. Then in 1976 at Panmunjom, two U.S. Army officers were killed by North Koreans. They were attacked by hatchet wielding North Korean soldiers who killed the two Americans brutally. Again nothing happened. Protests were filed and threats made, but as in all previous "incidents", nothing happened at the end. There were also numerous hostile acts carried out by North Korea against South Korea such as the bombings in Burma that killed South Korean government officials and the shooting down of a Korean Airlines plane killing all passengers! None of these attacks brought about a war.
The situation in Korea, particularly along the DMZ has been volatile and extremely dangerous ever since the DMZ was established in 1953. What most Americans, even those who served in the Army do not know is that for soldiers serving along the DMZ, the Combat Infantry Badge (CIB) was authorized from 1969 until 1994! It was only in 1994 that Pentagon decided that the situation had stabilized enough that the CIB would no longer be authorized for those on DMZ duty. Just think about it! I am sure everyone assumed that during that era and later, only those U.S. servicemen that served in combat in Vietnam, Dominican Republic, and later in Grenada, Panama, and Gulf War were authorized the CIB for Army and Combat Action Ribbons for Marines, sailors and airmen. How many people in America actually knew that service on the DMZ in Korea was considered combat duty!
So, yes, the situation today on the Korean peninsula is very dangerous indeed. But I believe that in reality it is no more dangerous than it was in the past. Of course, there is that additional danger of nuclear weapons in the possession of people with questionable sanity. However, North Koreans had demonstrated in the past they did not need to have nuclear weapons to be reckless, unpredictable and dangerous! They could attack with hatchets, they don't even need modern weapons! Today it is a very dangerous world in general, but Korea appears to be especially dangerous. But then again, if you look back at the last half a century, it has always been a very dangerous place!
Saturday, April 29, 2017
Monday, April 24, 2017
North Korea's Dilemma
North Korea faces a dilemma that historically, Korea has had to deal with most of its existence. China its much larger and more powerful neighbor to the north has always played a key role. Throughout most of Korea's history, it has been a tributary state of China. During the Chosun Dynasty (Yi Dynasty) and the prior Koryo Dynasty, Korea was subject to China, whether it was the Mongol rule of Yuan Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty, or Manchu rulers of Ching Dynasty. This relationship dates back to Tang Dynasty, when China helped Silla defeat Paekche and Koguryo, forming the Koryo Dynasty which became a vassal of China! It was only during the early years of Gochosun and later Koguryo, that Korea did not have to bow to China. Today, South Korea enjoys that same standing as the ancient Gochosun and Koguryo. But North Korea, despite its belligerent behavior with mentally imbalanced leaders, has been dependent on China since 1950 when China stepped-in across the Yalu to bail it out from the UN forces during the Korean War.
Nothing would please China more than to have the same influence over the southern part of Korea as it does over the northern part today. China has always mistrusted and feared an independent Korea. Both the ancient Gochosun and Koguryo were feared by China. Today, perhaps China does not fear South Korea militarily, but it has been a serious competitor to China's rising economy. North Korea on the other hand, has been dependent on China for its trade and economic support for more than a half a century. It is estimated that more than two thirds of North Korea's trade is dependent on China.
North Korea is a very important trading partner for China. It is important because China is North Korea's lifeline, essentially its trading partner that keeps the country breathing! In the past, China has always controlled the economy of Korea by doling out certain products and technology, keeping Korea from becoming more independent. Some of the more popular export products, such as silk and porcelain, China monopolized, refusing to give out the secret of its production. The same went for black powder, which began to play an important role in warfare starting around the 12th Century, therefore, vital for a country's defense. Korea was never able to really develop its technology in black powder development nor silk cultivation. However, it was able to develop its own porcelain and ceramic technology to a point where it rivaled China's, and in some cases preferred over the Chinese products, especially by the Japanese.
It has been a long time since Korea was so dependent on Chinese technology. In case of South Korea, it is not dependent on China at all! But North Korea is still very much tied to China, and you can bet your bottom dollar that their nuclear technology, although developed by themselves, got its start from the Chinese! Nothing would please North Korea's leadership more than to be completely free of the Chinese yoke! But, without Chinese economic support, they would not last a year! That is why all of the pundits are saying that China must get involved in order to resolve North Korea's nuclear issue.
It appears that perhaps China is finally going to apply some economic pressure to get North Korea in line. But, it is not in China's best interest to have a docile North Korea that is at the same time almost totally dependent on China for economic support. North Korea would then simply become another poverty stricken Chinese province. So, for China and its leaders, North Korea has become a definite problem. Contrary to what some say, China is not seeking a war in the region. It would really do China more harm than good to have a major conflict take place in the region involving some of their major trading partners! But should North Korea lose its "teeth" and bad boy image, it will more than likely be essentially "absorbed" by the more economically powerful and arguably militarily just as powerful, South Korea. That won't do for China. That would create a very powerful Korea, both economically and militarily, and it would no longer be under the Chinese influence.
It is becoming increasingly more apparent that North Korea is trying to break away from China. Otherwise why would it do all those things that irritate its benefactor? North Korea would like nothing more than to develop stronger ties with other countries and become more economically independent. Despite all of the insulting verbiage about being "America's running dogs," North Korea is envious of South Korea. They know that despite South Korea's strong ties with the United States, it is still a very much independent country and is not a vassal to anyone, not like they are to China! The "Han River Miracle" and South Korea's economic rise is the envy of most Asian countries, including North Korea, whether they want to admit it or not! But as much as they may want to join the world community, North Korea, having been a true hermit kingdom for over a half a century and maintained the "bad boy-tough guy" image, seems incapable of projecting a more "civilized" gentler-kinder image. Instead they keep spitting out venomous language with tough talk about annihilating the U.S. and leveling South Korea, etc., etc. North Korea spouts off like an emotionally imbalanced, ill mannered teenage boy trying to impress a girl with foul language and tough talk, and then wondering why the girl turned away from him!
Whether China will curb North Korea, force it to behave, is really not something that we should be seeking. That would be just a temporary solution to the problem. What China needs to do is to force North Korea to disarm its nuclear arsenal and declare that they will behave henceforth. That will never happen and China will never force North Korea to completely give-in. Even if China cut off all of its economic support, which it will never do, North Korea at that point, will not submit to China but will seek some other way, even self destruction by going to war! What has happened is that through half a century of personality cults, "hate America" propaganda campaigns and constant self glorification, North Korea has become so far removed from the "real world" that it is incapable of joining the rest of the world society as a functioning member.
The only solution, in the estimation of some pundits, is the total removal of the ruling members, a complete house cleaning through revolution or war! That doesn't sound very promising. Another solution, which some in South Korea believe can work, is to gradually influence the people of North Korea to change through education and economic support, making the people realize that there is a better way. That, of course, takes time. Whatever it is, it has to be something that is brought about by the people themselves, not by the Chinese. The Chinese can impose economic sanction to make Kim Jong Un and Company behave temporarily, perhaps. But that is all. China is not the answer to the North Korea solution, China is one of the problems!
Nothing would please China more than to have the same influence over the southern part of Korea as it does over the northern part today. China has always mistrusted and feared an independent Korea. Both the ancient Gochosun and Koguryo were feared by China. Today, perhaps China does not fear South Korea militarily, but it has been a serious competitor to China's rising economy. North Korea on the other hand, has been dependent on China for its trade and economic support for more than a half a century. It is estimated that more than two thirds of North Korea's trade is dependent on China.
North Korea is a very important trading partner for China. It is important because China is North Korea's lifeline, essentially its trading partner that keeps the country breathing! In the past, China has always controlled the economy of Korea by doling out certain products and technology, keeping Korea from becoming more independent. Some of the more popular export products, such as silk and porcelain, China monopolized, refusing to give out the secret of its production. The same went for black powder, which began to play an important role in warfare starting around the 12th Century, therefore, vital for a country's defense. Korea was never able to really develop its technology in black powder development nor silk cultivation. However, it was able to develop its own porcelain and ceramic technology to a point where it rivaled China's, and in some cases preferred over the Chinese products, especially by the Japanese.
It has been a long time since Korea was so dependent on Chinese technology. In case of South Korea, it is not dependent on China at all! But North Korea is still very much tied to China, and you can bet your bottom dollar that their nuclear technology, although developed by themselves, got its start from the Chinese! Nothing would please North Korea's leadership more than to be completely free of the Chinese yoke! But, without Chinese economic support, they would not last a year! That is why all of the pundits are saying that China must get involved in order to resolve North Korea's nuclear issue.
It appears that perhaps China is finally going to apply some economic pressure to get North Korea in line. But, it is not in China's best interest to have a docile North Korea that is at the same time almost totally dependent on China for economic support. North Korea would then simply become another poverty stricken Chinese province. So, for China and its leaders, North Korea has become a definite problem. Contrary to what some say, China is not seeking a war in the region. It would really do China more harm than good to have a major conflict take place in the region involving some of their major trading partners! But should North Korea lose its "teeth" and bad boy image, it will more than likely be essentially "absorbed" by the more economically powerful and arguably militarily just as powerful, South Korea. That won't do for China. That would create a very powerful Korea, both economically and militarily, and it would no longer be under the Chinese influence.
It is becoming increasingly more apparent that North Korea is trying to break away from China. Otherwise why would it do all those things that irritate its benefactor? North Korea would like nothing more than to develop stronger ties with other countries and become more economically independent. Despite all of the insulting verbiage about being "America's running dogs," North Korea is envious of South Korea. They know that despite South Korea's strong ties with the United States, it is still a very much independent country and is not a vassal to anyone, not like they are to China! The "Han River Miracle" and South Korea's economic rise is the envy of most Asian countries, including North Korea, whether they want to admit it or not! But as much as they may want to join the world community, North Korea, having been a true hermit kingdom for over a half a century and maintained the "bad boy-tough guy" image, seems incapable of projecting a more "civilized" gentler-kinder image. Instead they keep spitting out venomous language with tough talk about annihilating the U.S. and leveling South Korea, etc., etc. North Korea spouts off like an emotionally imbalanced, ill mannered teenage boy trying to impress a girl with foul language and tough talk, and then wondering why the girl turned away from him!
Whether China will curb North Korea, force it to behave, is really not something that we should be seeking. That would be just a temporary solution to the problem. What China needs to do is to force North Korea to disarm its nuclear arsenal and declare that they will behave henceforth. That will never happen and China will never force North Korea to completely give-in. Even if China cut off all of its economic support, which it will never do, North Korea at that point, will not submit to China but will seek some other way, even self destruction by going to war! What has happened is that through half a century of personality cults, "hate America" propaganda campaigns and constant self glorification, North Korea has become so far removed from the "real world" that it is incapable of joining the rest of the world society as a functioning member.
The only solution, in the estimation of some pundits, is the total removal of the ruling members, a complete house cleaning through revolution or war! That doesn't sound very promising. Another solution, which some in South Korea believe can work, is to gradually influence the people of North Korea to change through education and economic support, making the people realize that there is a better way. That, of course, takes time. Whatever it is, it has to be something that is brought about by the people themselves, not by the Chinese. The Chinese can impose economic sanction to make Kim Jong Un and Company behave temporarily, perhaps. But that is all. China is not the answer to the North Korea solution, China is one of the problems!
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
The North Korea Issue
No doubt some of you may have been wondering why I have not blogged anything on this issue since it appears to be a hot topic today, and I have been harping on it in previous blogs. Frankly, I wanted to wait and see if there would be any further developments before I launched into my views on the issue. However, it appears that for the time being things are somewhat at a stalemate despite all the threatening rhetoric that is being tossed about.
I believe that the United States has taken on a new stand on North Korea in more than two decades. The problem with North Korea and the nuclear issue surfaced first during Clinton Administration when the looney Kim Jong Il, the father of the current wacko Kim Jong Un, first made noise about nuclear weapons development. Clinton supposedly came up with a deal with North Korea that would keep North Korea in check, but that deal was about as solid as the recent Iran deal that Obama made, and Kim Jong Il continued with his nuclear weapons program. For the rest of Clinton administration, nothing much was done. George W. Bush tried a few things but his efforts went nowhere and North Korea continued with its program while our government kept putting the problem aside and dealing with other things. Obama's administration was even worst than Clinton and Bush in this regard. Obama had no policy, no plan on how to deal with North Korea. When the current North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Un took over and thumbed his nose at everyone and speeded-up the nuclear development, aside from showing alarm, the Obama administration did nothing. This lack of any kind of action by Obama led to the current situation. Yes, Clinton was at fault as well as George W., but it was largely Obama with his "wait and see" foreign policy that led to the current situation.
Despite all that show of force and strong language, I do not believe that North Korea is going to launch any kind of a nuclear attack. They most certainly won't launch any missiles against the United States, even if they did have ICBMs that can reach our shores. There are some "experts" that say they have the ICBMs, others who say they don't. Whatever the case may be, and as crazy as Kim Jong Un may seem to be, he is not going to commit suicide. He may risk millions of lives of his people, he is quite capable of doing that, but he won't risk his own life and the total destruction of North Korea, after all, as poor and miserable as that place is, that is all that he has! Kim Jong Un knows that if he launches a nuclear strike against the United States, the retaliation by us will completely destroy the northern half of the Korean peninsula, and he won't survive the attack!
If he launches a nuclear strike against South Korea or Japan, he knows that he will pay dearly for the act. The United States may respond in kind and launch a selective nuclear strike, or we could launch a strike with those huge MOABs, the "mother of all bombs" that we just dropped in Afghanistan. It would be enough for just a couple of those bombs to completely wipe out North Korean Command and Control and infrastructure. These bombs will destroy just as much as a nuclear device without causing radiation problems after the attack. Despite denials, the purpose of dropping that MOAB in Afghanistan was not just to show ISIS that we have a very long and deep reach, but to send a clear message to Kim Jong Un, and anyone else, for that matter! You can be sure he got the message despite all the bluster and threats.
China, for the first time appears to be serious about trying to help reign-in North Korea. Stopping the coal shipments and canceling flights is but a drop in the bucket. But these gestures are a beginning. Obviously Trump's long talk with Xi in Florida has had an effect. We don't know what was exactly said or promised, but it seems the talks were fruitful. The same goes for Tillerson's two hour talk with Putin behind closed doors. Despite the guarded statement by Tillerson, saying that our relations with Russia were at its lowest point, I believe he managed to get through to Putin and come up with some mutual agreements.
Kim Jong Un may be living in his own fantasy world, but he is aware of what has been happening and what Trump and his administration has been doing. Trump critics are all saying that he is leading us to World War Three, that it will be Armageddon! Others are saying that Trump's policies are going to cause North Korea to launch a nuclear strike, perhaps at us, but at the very least at South Korea. All of these dire predictions are possibilities, after all, anything is possible. But most of these criticisms of Trump's policy toward North Korea are politically motivated and are coming from Democrats and the liberal left. But chances of North Korea attacking the United States are very slim now, much less so than they were during Obama administration. The reason? Good or bad, Trump's policy toward North Korea is basically that we won't tolerate their misbehavior. If they threaten, we will threaten. If they strike, we most certainly will strike back. Such was not the case in previous years, that is why it was much more dangerous! It may seem like child's play, playground politics. Well, that is precisely what it is, and for now the bully in the playground (Kim Jong Un) has been told that a bigger kid will come and smack him if he doesn't behave.
I believe that the United States has taken on a new stand on North Korea in more than two decades. The problem with North Korea and the nuclear issue surfaced first during Clinton Administration when the looney Kim Jong Il, the father of the current wacko Kim Jong Un, first made noise about nuclear weapons development. Clinton supposedly came up with a deal with North Korea that would keep North Korea in check, but that deal was about as solid as the recent Iran deal that Obama made, and Kim Jong Il continued with his nuclear weapons program. For the rest of Clinton administration, nothing much was done. George W. Bush tried a few things but his efforts went nowhere and North Korea continued with its program while our government kept putting the problem aside and dealing with other things. Obama's administration was even worst than Clinton and Bush in this regard. Obama had no policy, no plan on how to deal with North Korea. When the current North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Un took over and thumbed his nose at everyone and speeded-up the nuclear development, aside from showing alarm, the Obama administration did nothing. This lack of any kind of action by Obama led to the current situation. Yes, Clinton was at fault as well as George W., but it was largely Obama with his "wait and see" foreign policy that led to the current situation.
Despite all that show of force and strong language, I do not believe that North Korea is going to launch any kind of a nuclear attack. They most certainly won't launch any missiles against the United States, even if they did have ICBMs that can reach our shores. There are some "experts" that say they have the ICBMs, others who say they don't. Whatever the case may be, and as crazy as Kim Jong Un may seem to be, he is not going to commit suicide. He may risk millions of lives of his people, he is quite capable of doing that, but he won't risk his own life and the total destruction of North Korea, after all, as poor and miserable as that place is, that is all that he has! Kim Jong Un knows that if he launches a nuclear strike against the United States, the retaliation by us will completely destroy the northern half of the Korean peninsula, and he won't survive the attack!
If he launches a nuclear strike against South Korea or Japan, he knows that he will pay dearly for the act. The United States may respond in kind and launch a selective nuclear strike, or we could launch a strike with those huge MOABs, the "mother of all bombs" that we just dropped in Afghanistan. It would be enough for just a couple of those bombs to completely wipe out North Korean Command and Control and infrastructure. These bombs will destroy just as much as a nuclear device without causing radiation problems after the attack. Despite denials, the purpose of dropping that MOAB in Afghanistan was not just to show ISIS that we have a very long and deep reach, but to send a clear message to Kim Jong Un, and anyone else, for that matter! You can be sure he got the message despite all the bluster and threats.
China, for the first time appears to be serious about trying to help reign-in North Korea. Stopping the coal shipments and canceling flights is but a drop in the bucket. But these gestures are a beginning. Obviously Trump's long talk with Xi in Florida has had an effect. We don't know what was exactly said or promised, but it seems the talks were fruitful. The same goes for Tillerson's two hour talk with Putin behind closed doors. Despite the guarded statement by Tillerson, saying that our relations with Russia were at its lowest point, I believe he managed to get through to Putin and come up with some mutual agreements.
Kim Jong Un may be living in his own fantasy world, but he is aware of what has been happening and what Trump and his administration has been doing. Trump critics are all saying that he is leading us to World War Three, that it will be Armageddon! Others are saying that Trump's policies are going to cause North Korea to launch a nuclear strike, perhaps at us, but at the very least at South Korea. All of these dire predictions are possibilities, after all, anything is possible. But most of these criticisms of Trump's policy toward North Korea are politically motivated and are coming from Democrats and the liberal left. But chances of North Korea attacking the United States are very slim now, much less so than they were during Obama administration. The reason? Good or bad, Trump's policy toward North Korea is basically that we won't tolerate their misbehavior. If they threaten, we will threaten. If they strike, we most certainly will strike back. Such was not the case in previous years, that is why it was much more dangerous! It may seem like child's play, playground politics. Well, that is precisely what it is, and for now the bully in the playground (Kim Jong Un) has been told that a bigger kid will come and smack him if he doesn't behave.
Wednesday, April 12, 2017
PAX Americana
George W. Bush is said to have tried to establish PAX Americana, which means "American Peace" in Latin, but is often interpreted as world peace established by America, or to put it another way, American domination of the world. There were other American presidents in the past who are said to have tried to establish PAX Americana, Theodore Roosevelt being one that is often mentioned in this regard. But whether George W. Bush tried to establish American dominance or not, it seems that he did not have the right "players" to carry out his plan, did not have the right chess pieces, if indeed there was such a plan at all. Some of George W's people, like Donald Rumsfeld, did more damage than good towards that goal by their abrasive, insensitive remarks that were downright insulting at times and did nothing to bring others to America's fold. George W's relations with Putin were never good and it was quite obvious that his administration not only mistrusted, but deeply disliked Putin and his government.
Obama's administration put America on hold for eight years. Actually, in some regards, it set back America a few years in some areas. There were many "missed" opportunities to establish peace or come up with an agreement for peace during this time. There were a lot of concessions being made by the United States, Iran Nuclear Deal was one perfect example. Obama's Secretary of State John Kerry's incompetence in deal making, incompetence at historical proportions, was amply demonstrated during the Iran Nuclear Deal negotiations. Our UN Ambassador was a known liberal with leftist leanings who openly sided with the Palestinians over Israel. So, the eight years with Obama were the "lost" eight years at best, but more like eight years that cost America dearly in many ways, politically and otherwise. Be that as it may, it seems that we have entered a new era that is completely opposite of what we have faced for the last eight years.
The critics of Trump administration are very quick to jump on everything that they see as a mistake or a misstep by the new administration. The news media does not let up. I guess they still can't get over how they misjudged the election and how "their" candidate did not win. Whatever the case may be, the news media is not about to give credit to Trump for anything positive. Political cartoons continue to proliferate with insulting caricatures of Trump and his policies. Jokes and insulting remarks are constantly being made about Trump's selection of cabinet members and other officials who are forced to resign from their new posts. But, through it all, it seems that Trump is continuing to march forward with his "plan," his goals, such as they are! When one of his selections, appointees, is found to have screwed-up and has to resign, Trump simply finds another body and plugs it in. He seems unfazed by these missteps and continues on.
Trump's first major foreign policy move was the launching of the cruise missile strike against Syria's Assad regime. In doing so, he attacked Russia's ally, risked even injuring or killing some Russians who were on the ground with their Syrian allies. Russia, after a brief silence, has condemned the U.S. "aggression" and continues to make noise at the UN and other international organizational gatherings. Interestingly, there is very little support for Russia's condemnation of U.S. attack other than from Syria and other Russian allies! I think the reaction of world communities, lack of support for Russia's stand, is somewhat of a surprise to Putin and company!
The cruise missile attack against Syria was a calculated move, not an impromptu reaction of anger or a poorly hatched plan. Much of what Trump says and tweets to the public is seen as bravado and just a bunch of loud talk. It may indeed be that Trump says a lot things that he really does not intend to carry out. But it seems that within the loud talk and noise that Trump releases through his tweets and statements, there is definitely underlying purpose. The attack against Syria was followed by a statement that he was going to talk to the Chinese leader about various subjects, including the need for China to help control North Korea. Then Trump stated that regardless of what China did or did not do about North Korea, that he would not just sit by and do nothing. That if needed, the United States would take action against North Korea unilaterally! Interestingly, at the same time national polls were released showing that the majority of Americans, close to 75%, would not object to military action against North Korea. Now this is a scary thought, as I said before. It would definitely start Korean War II or more correctly, resume the Korean War which has only been in a holding pattern thus far!
Kim Jong Un's and North Korea's reaction to Trump's remarks and his dispatching of our warships to Korean waters elicited predictable comments. But it was quite apparent that they are very nervous and have realized that they are dealing with a different person and a different set of players. Whether good or bad, things have changed dramatically just with the release of few comments! At least the South Koreans seem to be convinced that Trump is for real, that he is not just playing games. If Kim Jong Un does not start behaving, there will be a price to pay this time. Trump has even reigned-in Russia into the North Korean mess by stating that Russia should involve itself in trying to control North Korea's nuclear ambitions! At the same time, despite all the negative comments coming out of Kremlin over our missile strike in Syria, Trump sends his Secretary of State to Moscow. Unlike his predecessor John Kerry who did not know how to "talk" to anybody, Tillerson is an accomplished negotiator and has years of experience negotiating with Russians. Despite concerns that Russia might snub him, Tillerson met with Putin and all of the key players in Moscow and seems to have opened a dialogue. It will be interesting to see what will come out of that meeting.
Say what you will about Donald Trump. He may come off as a loud mouth, bumbling, neophyte in politics, but he is a very shrewd individual despite his demeanor and understands how to negotiate. Whether he will succeed in his goals or not, it is too soon to tell. It is too soon to heap criticism and condemn his policies and actions as some have been doing. Who knows he may very well succeed in accomplishing things that several past administrations have failed to do, going back to Ronald Reagan, another president who is said to have tried to establish PAX Americana.
Obama's administration put America on hold for eight years. Actually, in some regards, it set back America a few years in some areas. There were many "missed" opportunities to establish peace or come up with an agreement for peace during this time. There were a lot of concessions being made by the United States, Iran Nuclear Deal was one perfect example. Obama's Secretary of State John Kerry's incompetence in deal making, incompetence at historical proportions, was amply demonstrated during the Iran Nuclear Deal negotiations. Our UN Ambassador was a known liberal with leftist leanings who openly sided with the Palestinians over Israel. So, the eight years with Obama were the "lost" eight years at best, but more like eight years that cost America dearly in many ways, politically and otherwise. Be that as it may, it seems that we have entered a new era that is completely opposite of what we have faced for the last eight years.
The critics of Trump administration are very quick to jump on everything that they see as a mistake or a misstep by the new administration. The news media does not let up. I guess they still can't get over how they misjudged the election and how "their" candidate did not win. Whatever the case may be, the news media is not about to give credit to Trump for anything positive. Political cartoons continue to proliferate with insulting caricatures of Trump and his policies. Jokes and insulting remarks are constantly being made about Trump's selection of cabinet members and other officials who are forced to resign from their new posts. But, through it all, it seems that Trump is continuing to march forward with his "plan," his goals, such as they are! When one of his selections, appointees, is found to have screwed-up and has to resign, Trump simply finds another body and plugs it in. He seems unfazed by these missteps and continues on.
Trump's first major foreign policy move was the launching of the cruise missile strike against Syria's Assad regime. In doing so, he attacked Russia's ally, risked even injuring or killing some Russians who were on the ground with their Syrian allies. Russia, after a brief silence, has condemned the U.S. "aggression" and continues to make noise at the UN and other international organizational gatherings. Interestingly, there is very little support for Russia's condemnation of U.S. attack other than from Syria and other Russian allies! I think the reaction of world communities, lack of support for Russia's stand, is somewhat of a surprise to Putin and company!
The cruise missile attack against Syria was a calculated move, not an impromptu reaction of anger or a poorly hatched plan. Much of what Trump says and tweets to the public is seen as bravado and just a bunch of loud talk. It may indeed be that Trump says a lot things that he really does not intend to carry out. But it seems that within the loud talk and noise that Trump releases through his tweets and statements, there is definitely underlying purpose. The attack against Syria was followed by a statement that he was going to talk to the Chinese leader about various subjects, including the need for China to help control North Korea. Then Trump stated that regardless of what China did or did not do about North Korea, that he would not just sit by and do nothing. That if needed, the United States would take action against North Korea unilaterally! Interestingly, at the same time national polls were released showing that the majority of Americans, close to 75%, would not object to military action against North Korea. Now this is a scary thought, as I said before. It would definitely start Korean War II or more correctly, resume the Korean War which has only been in a holding pattern thus far!
Kim Jong Un's and North Korea's reaction to Trump's remarks and his dispatching of our warships to Korean waters elicited predictable comments. But it was quite apparent that they are very nervous and have realized that they are dealing with a different person and a different set of players. Whether good or bad, things have changed dramatically just with the release of few comments! At least the South Koreans seem to be convinced that Trump is for real, that he is not just playing games. If Kim Jong Un does not start behaving, there will be a price to pay this time. Trump has even reigned-in Russia into the North Korean mess by stating that Russia should involve itself in trying to control North Korea's nuclear ambitions! At the same time, despite all the negative comments coming out of Kremlin over our missile strike in Syria, Trump sends his Secretary of State to Moscow. Unlike his predecessor John Kerry who did not know how to "talk" to anybody, Tillerson is an accomplished negotiator and has years of experience negotiating with Russians. Despite concerns that Russia might snub him, Tillerson met with Putin and all of the key players in Moscow and seems to have opened a dialogue. It will be interesting to see what will come out of that meeting.
Say what you will about Donald Trump. He may come off as a loud mouth, bumbling, neophyte in politics, but he is a very shrewd individual despite his demeanor and understands how to negotiate. Whether he will succeed in his goals or not, it is too soon to tell. It is too soon to heap criticism and condemn his policies and actions as some have been doing. Who knows he may very well succeed in accomplishing things that several past administrations have failed to do, going back to Ronald Reagan, another president who is said to have tried to establish PAX Americana.
Friday, April 7, 2017
Syria/North Korea, The Two Are Tied
It was somewhat of a surprise to some that U.S. reacted so soon after the alleged chemical attack by Syrian government. Obviously the present administration has a very thin "red line" that, if crossed, it will react. In a typical political, Washingtonian blame game, all the blame is placed on the previous administration for not having taken action earlier when Syria used chemical weapons. Obama's "red line" of 2013 was crossed so many times with no reaction from the U.S. that it had become a joke. So, in a way the current criticism is right on the mark. But then again, blaming the previous administration for problems has been a tradition among our politicians.
Earlier this year, before she left office, Susan Rice stated that the Obama administration had "resolved" the chemical weapons issue in Syria diplomatically, without having to resort to military action. She seemed quite proud of it and stated that U.S. had made arrangements with Russia to oversee the elimination and destruction of the chemical weapons stockpile that Syria had. We now see how well that went! But then again, what credibility does Susan Rice have? This is the person that went on national TV several times after the Benghazi tragedy and insisted that it was caused by the anti Islamic video! To add to her "credibility," she is currently being investigated for allegedly ordering the spying on Trump's staff! So, I guess we can just ignore her statements and consider Obama's attempt to resolve the chemical weapons issue in Syria a total failure.
The U.S. launching of the cruise missile attack on Syrian air bases supposedly knocked out some of their chemical weapons storage facilities. We won't know for sure if it had any effect or whether it was simply a show of force on our part. Russia so far has not reacted. However, if some Russian personnel were injured or killed in the attack, it will certainly complicate the issue. Earlier Russia stated that its commitment to support the Syrian regime was not "unconditional." What that essentially signaled was that Russia was backsliding, leaving itself an opening in case things got too hot! At the same time, those who think this administration is being too cozy with Russia may take a sigh of relief. By launching a strike against Syria, we have attacked Russia's ally!
It seems that the cruise missile strike against Syria is serving multiple purposes for Trump. It is clearly a signal to North Korea that this administration will back its threats, not just make noise. But then, are we contemplating military action against North Korea? According to the latest Pew Institute findings, almost 75% of Americans approve of military action against North Korea should our government decide to do so. This is really scary! Carrying out a similar strike against North Korea would result in a disastrous situation. Although Kim Jong Un and Co. are playing a cat and mouse game with this whole business of nukes and missiles, trying to gain an upper hand in negotiations and getting the sanctions eased. An attack such as the one we just carried out against Syria would no doubt result in a retaliatory strike from North Korea. More than likely it would be against South Korea, which would perpetrate a return strike from South Korea, and the start of Korean War II! But just to be unpredictable, as he is, Kim might even launch a strike against Japan. Who knows what that crazy will do.
The strike against Syria sent a signal to North Korea to not take this administration lightly. It was also launched just a few days before Trump's meeting with China's leader. No doubt the main topics to be discussed will involve trade issues and currency valuation, but North Korea will also enter into discussions. The signal that Trump is sending to China ahead of the meeting is that he will carry out his threats, that he is not just all bark and no bite as he is often portrayed by the news media.
Whether the cruise missile strike against Syria, the scheduled meeting with Chinese leader, and North Korea's latest antics are all just coincidences, we really won't know. But most pundits seem to think that Trump is trying to send a message, not just to North Korea and China, and of course Syria who was attacked, but to Putin. So far no response from Putin.
Earlier this year, before she left office, Susan Rice stated that the Obama administration had "resolved" the chemical weapons issue in Syria diplomatically, without having to resort to military action. She seemed quite proud of it and stated that U.S. had made arrangements with Russia to oversee the elimination and destruction of the chemical weapons stockpile that Syria had. We now see how well that went! But then again, what credibility does Susan Rice have? This is the person that went on national TV several times after the Benghazi tragedy and insisted that it was caused by the anti Islamic video! To add to her "credibility," she is currently being investigated for allegedly ordering the spying on Trump's staff! So, I guess we can just ignore her statements and consider Obama's attempt to resolve the chemical weapons issue in Syria a total failure.
The U.S. launching of the cruise missile attack on Syrian air bases supposedly knocked out some of their chemical weapons storage facilities. We won't know for sure if it had any effect or whether it was simply a show of force on our part. Russia so far has not reacted. However, if some Russian personnel were injured or killed in the attack, it will certainly complicate the issue. Earlier Russia stated that its commitment to support the Syrian regime was not "unconditional." What that essentially signaled was that Russia was backsliding, leaving itself an opening in case things got too hot! At the same time, those who think this administration is being too cozy with Russia may take a sigh of relief. By launching a strike against Syria, we have attacked Russia's ally!
It seems that the cruise missile strike against Syria is serving multiple purposes for Trump. It is clearly a signal to North Korea that this administration will back its threats, not just make noise. But then, are we contemplating military action against North Korea? According to the latest Pew Institute findings, almost 75% of Americans approve of military action against North Korea should our government decide to do so. This is really scary! Carrying out a similar strike against North Korea would result in a disastrous situation. Although Kim Jong Un and Co. are playing a cat and mouse game with this whole business of nukes and missiles, trying to gain an upper hand in negotiations and getting the sanctions eased. An attack such as the one we just carried out against Syria would no doubt result in a retaliatory strike from North Korea. More than likely it would be against South Korea, which would perpetrate a return strike from South Korea, and the start of Korean War II! But just to be unpredictable, as he is, Kim might even launch a strike against Japan. Who knows what that crazy will do.
The strike against Syria sent a signal to North Korea to not take this administration lightly. It was also launched just a few days before Trump's meeting with China's leader. No doubt the main topics to be discussed will involve trade issues and currency valuation, but North Korea will also enter into discussions. The signal that Trump is sending to China ahead of the meeting is that he will carry out his threats, that he is not just all bark and no bite as he is often portrayed by the news media.
Whether the cruise missile strike against Syria, the scheduled meeting with Chinese leader, and North Korea's latest antics are all just coincidences, we really won't know. But most pundits seem to think that Trump is trying to send a message, not just to North Korea and China, and of course Syria who was attacked, but to Putin. So far no response from Putin.
Monday, April 3, 2017
Stolen Valor
The other day I ran into a man leaving a restaurant as I was entering. He was accompanied by a woman and they were both dressed up for the usually very casual Arizona. The woman's attire didn't really grab my attention, she was in a modest dress but wearing heels, and had some jewelry on her....nothing unusual. The man's attire, however, caught my attention because he was in full U.S. Army dress uniform. What was unusual about his appearance was not so much that he was in army dress uniform, but that he had all the ribbons, badges and insignias on his uniform that were totally inappropriate. Suffice it to say that anyone who has served in the military, especially in the army, would have recognized immediately that everything about the uniform and all of the ribbons and badges that he wore were wrong, improperly arranged and improbable. He was obviously a phony, and his pompous demeanor as he departed, throwing a casual hand salute to the hostess at the entry, made him appear that much more ludicrous!
This encounter reminded me of an incident a few years ago that was reported in national news. The sitting president of the American Legion at that time was discovered to be a phony! He had claimed that he was a Marine Corps veteran and a decorated veteran of Vietnam War. However, it was discovered that he had actually never served in the Marine Corps or any other branch of the service! This was a major embarrassment for the American Legion, a national organization of veterans of the U.S. military, and it may have been one of the factors that brought about the passing of the Stolen Valor Act of 2013. It seems that there have been a rash of impersonators, phonies who claimed military service when in fact the vast majority of these pretenders had never served or had been discharged from the military for reasons other than honorable. Perhaps because we have been involved in two (Afghanistan and Iraq) wars for over 15 years, and now are bogged down in a third (Syria), there are more nut cases running around pretending to be war heroes today, or so it seems, Stolen Valor Act notwithstanding!
But, the phonies, the pretenders, were always around, probably going back to the cavemen era! One of the better known cases, although not exactly a complete phony, but still a phony, involved a U.S. Senator back in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Senator Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin who served in the U.S. Senate from 1947 until 1957 was a true flim-flam man, a con man of the best tradition! But then again, most politicians are nothing but con men! McCarthy was best known for his "Red" or "Commie" scare that he created in 1950s. He claimed that various people in the government as well as in the private sector were nothing more than agents of the Communist International, the Comintern, the Soviet apparatus for spreading communism throughout the world. McCarthy launched a witch hunt that destroyed the lives of countless people that he accused of being a "commie." He was responsible for ruining the lives and careers of many, both in government and in private sector, particularly in Hollywood. His Senate Hearings were nothing but a witch hunt.
McCarthy was riding high, and he was possibly the most feared Senator on the hill in his prime. But then a reporter dug into his background and discovered some things. McCarthy, who served in the Marine Corps during World War Two in the Pacific, as an Intelligence Briefing Officer for a bomber squadron, claimed that he had flown on 32 harrowing combat missions and had been wounded and performed heroic deeds to earn a medal for valor along with a Purple Heart for wounds received in combat. But, the truth was that he had broken his leg aboard a ship in a drunken brawl when the ship crossed the equator, a traditional celebration that sailors hold! He had also tagged along as an observer on 12 occasions on bombing missions and on one of those missions the plane he was on was shot at by the Japanese. McCarthy not only write up a commendation for himself for valor, but somehow incorporated his drunken brawl on a ship with a combat flight on a bomber and got a Purple Heart as well. He also claimed that his comrades-in-arms had given him a nickname of "Tail Gunner Joe" out of respect. During World War Two, a tail gunner on a bomber was considered to be in the most dangerous job of all bomber crew members, very vulnerable, exposed to enemy fire. Turns out, he gave that nickname to himself! Naturally, before the truth about his war experience was discovered, he was treated as somewhat of a war hero. But the when the truth was revealed and combined with his made up accusations against innocent people, he fell from grace very quickly.
Joe McCarthy did serve in the Marine Corps during the war. But he was not a combat Marine and he certainly did not fly 32 combat missions and receive those awards that he managed to somehow secure through his own citation writing! His claim to have been a war hero was definitely wrong. He lied and cheated to get those awards. So, he too is guilty of Stolen Valor, although he was indeed a veteran.
This encounter reminded me of an incident a few years ago that was reported in national news. The sitting president of the American Legion at that time was discovered to be a phony! He had claimed that he was a Marine Corps veteran and a decorated veteran of Vietnam War. However, it was discovered that he had actually never served in the Marine Corps or any other branch of the service! This was a major embarrassment for the American Legion, a national organization of veterans of the U.S. military, and it may have been one of the factors that brought about the passing of the Stolen Valor Act of 2013. It seems that there have been a rash of impersonators, phonies who claimed military service when in fact the vast majority of these pretenders had never served or had been discharged from the military for reasons other than honorable. Perhaps because we have been involved in two (Afghanistan and Iraq) wars for over 15 years, and now are bogged down in a third (Syria), there are more nut cases running around pretending to be war heroes today, or so it seems, Stolen Valor Act notwithstanding!
But, the phonies, the pretenders, were always around, probably going back to the cavemen era! One of the better known cases, although not exactly a complete phony, but still a phony, involved a U.S. Senator back in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Senator Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin who served in the U.S. Senate from 1947 until 1957 was a true flim-flam man, a con man of the best tradition! But then again, most politicians are nothing but con men! McCarthy was best known for his "Red" or "Commie" scare that he created in 1950s. He claimed that various people in the government as well as in the private sector were nothing more than agents of the Communist International, the Comintern, the Soviet apparatus for spreading communism throughout the world. McCarthy launched a witch hunt that destroyed the lives of countless people that he accused of being a "commie." He was responsible for ruining the lives and careers of many, both in government and in private sector, particularly in Hollywood. His Senate Hearings were nothing but a witch hunt.
McCarthy was riding high, and he was possibly the most feared Senator on the hill in his prime. But then a reporter dug into his background and discovered some things. McCarthy, who served in the Marine Corps during World War Two in the Pacific, as an Intelligence Briefing Officer for a bomber squadron, claimed that he had flown on 32 harrowing combat missions and had been wounded and performed heroic deeds to earn a medal for valor along with a Purple Heart for wounds received in combat. But, the truth was that he had broken his leg aboard a ship in a drunken brawl when the ship crossed the equator, a traditional celebration that sailors hold! He had also tagged along as an observer on 12 occasions on bombing missions and on one of those missions the plane he was on was shot at by the Japanese. McCarthy not only write up a commendation for himself for valor, but somehow incorporated his drunken brawl on a ship with a combat flight on a bomber and got a Purple Heart as well. He also claimed that his comrades-in-arms had given him a nickname of "Tail Gunner Joe" out of respect. During World War Two, a tail gunner on a bomber was considered to be in the most dangerous job of all bomber crew members, very vulnerable, exposed to enemy fire. Turns out, he gave that nickname to himself! Naturally, before the truth about his war experience was discovered, he was treated as somewhat of a war hero. But the when the truth was revealed and combined with his made up accusations against innocent people, he fell from grace very quickly.
Joe McCarthy did serve in the Marine Corps during the war. But he was not a combat Marine and he certainly did not fly 32 combat missions and receive those awards that he managed to somehow secure through his own citation writing! His claim to have been a war hero was definitely wrong. He lied and cheated to get those awards. So, he too is guilty of Stolen Valor, although he was indeed a veteran.
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