Monday, March 9, 2015

Iran, Our New Ally In The Middle East?

     It seems that Iran has become our new ally in the Middle East in our fight against ISIS.  Perhaps I shouldn't say our fight against ISIS, since we are doing precious little in that department!  It is more like Iran has become our surrogate in Iraq!  Obviously part of our effort to make a sweetheart deal with Iran on the nuclear issue was to get them to do our fighting in Iraq.  The sad part is, Iran would have done that without our encouragement.  All we needed to do was step back, which we did, and Iran would have moved in on its own.  More than likely, Maliki, the Iraqi leader would have invited Iran since he is closely tied with that country!  But as usual, our international poker playing ability is such that we let everyone know what our hand looked like, so it was easy for anyone to pull a bluff or out maneuver us.  So now, Iran is deeply involved in Iraq!
     The latest "offensive" launched by the Iraqi forces to recapture Tikrit without our or any coalition air support, without our guidance, so to speak, is a clear indication that Iraq has shifted its dependence on Iran.  It is interesting how the media keeps mentioning Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga, but makes no mention of Iranian involvement.  The media is so determined to portray Washington as favorably as possible, that they conveniently leave out some facts.  You can't blame the media, it was the media that put the people in Washington in charge, they are, or were media darlings.  That is until things start going south, in which case the media will turn on them in a flash and rip them apart!  Right now things are not bad enough for the media to do an about face.  At least in their minds, there is still some hope.
     Most recently, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister announced that Iraq has been handed over to Iran by us.  He made that statement after he met with John Kerry.  It must have been awkward for Kerry to stand next to the Saudi Foreign Minister as he announced that Iran was taking over Iraq!  The Saudis, incidentally, are one of the strong opponents of our so-called "deal" that Kerry is trying to work out with Iran.  It should tell us something when not only Israel, but Saudi Arabia, technically Israel's enemy, is also against any kind of a deal.  Israel knows Arabs better than any other non-Arabic country.  Saudi Arabia is an Arab country, and although Iranians are not Arabs, they are nevertheless from the same region, same religion, and basically same mindset!  But apparently Washington feels that we know Iran better than either Israel or Saudi Arabia!  Talk about arrogance!  I haven't seen such arrogance from Washington since the days of Jimmy Carter's "Georgia Mafia!" Those "boys" thought they had an answer to everything and wouldn't listen to anybody!
     One of the things that we are trying to avoid in that region is a sectarian war, a war of Sunni Muslims against the Shia/Shiite Muslims.  ISIS is made up of Sunnis, but the majority of Iraqi population is Shia/Shiite while the Kurds are mostly Sunni, and yes, the Iranians predominantly Shiite but are Sunni as well.  Saddam Hussein kept the Shiites under an iron fist and attempted to commit genocide against the Kurds.  The hatreds between the two sects run deep.  Obviously Iraq needs the Kurds and the Peshmergas to fight the ISIS, the Peshmerga are the only fighting force worth anything in that region.  But then you add a foreign component, Iran.  The Iranians are not only disliked by the majority of Iraqis, but they are also not Arabs!  It was not all that long ago that Iraq was involved in a long bloody war against Iran from 1980 until 1988!  Keep in mind that they are different people and there is no love lost between the two people!  Iraqis speak Arabic while the Iranians speak Farsi (Persian).  Although both countries are Islamic, their cultures are very different!  So, the presence of Iranians in Iraq is not going to sit well with many Iraqis, regardless of how Maliki feels about Iranians!  It is a very complex situation and the relationship between the two have historically been very complicated.  But now, what we have done is allowed an emerging nuclear power, Iran, essentially enter Iraq to assume the role of a "supervising" power.  I would really like to know who is responsible for our policies in that region....if we have any policies!
     It isn't too late yet.  Iran hasn't established foothold in Iraq yet.  All it has done is made some initial "incursions" by sending troops, etc.  We can stop it all, starting with the silly "deal" that we are trying to work out with Iran.  We can fully commit ourselves in Iraq and Syria and wipe out ISIS.  Yes, we can do that, we have the means and the capability.  Unless we wipe them out when we can, even if we are criticized by our European allies for our overly aggressive tactics, we are facing a long, long war against ISIS that we will only be fighting in a reactive way.  Every time ISIS commits an act of terror against us, we will strike.  But it won't be to finish them, it will be just to "punish" them for their atrocity.  Of course, it is even questionable whether we will take such retaliatory strikes, since we haven't done anything in response to the Americans that ISIS has murdered so far.  Oh, I know, we conducted air strikes.  But did we actually get any responsible ISIS members, like "Jihadi John." I don't know about that.  I am sure we will try to get "Jihadi John" and eventually one of our Special Operations units like the SEALs or the DELTA will get him.
     Now, all of those ISIS-like groups seem to have united.  The latest, Boko Haram of Nigeria pledged its allegiance to ISIS via social network.  So now it isn't just ISIS but a whole bunch of others.  ISIS is currently attracting all of the media attention.  This is making those other groups very jealous of ISIS!  They want and crave attention, so you know they will be doing something soon!  How are we going to handle them?  Are we going to try and find surrogates to do our work?  I hope not!

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