Sometimes, what is apparent on the surface is really not at all what it seems. This is particularly true when dealing with someone with a different mindset and a different agenda. Take for example our latest "deal" that we struck with Iran. It is really not a "deal" but merely the framework for an agreement that has yet to be signed! But even at this infant stage, there are major differences in how we perceive this "deal" and how the Iranians see it!
Among several major differences shown in the statements released by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, just two issues perfectly illustrate the opposite views. Zarif announced that nuclear cooperation with European countries (what he meant was Russia) will increase and two new nuclear plants will be constructed soon. There was no mention of building additional plants or Iran's cooperation with European countries in the statement released by Kerry. Instead, Kerry announced that Iran will reduce its stockpile of weapons grade uranium, but Iran made no mention of reduction of stockpile! Iran also announced that all sanctions will be immediately dropped as soon as the agreement is signed. Kerry made no mention of dropping the sanctions immediately, instead, he said that the easing of sanctions will be gradual.
It is obvious that Kerry and Zarif are speaking in different languages and appear to have a totally different understanding of the "deal" that they had supposedly reached. That is precisely what I referred to on several occasions before, when I mentioned the difficulty in dealing or negotiating with Islamic countries, who seem to have a totally different perspective. What we think Iran had agreed to is not what Iran thinks, and what Iran thinks we agreed to is not necessarily the same. So, despite all the hoopla and media attention, what has been agreed to thus far really doesn't seem to have much meaning.
On the other hand, Zafir appears to be a much better negotiator, or bargainer, than Kerry. Iran has already gotten something out of this deal, just by sitting down for negotiations. Most Americans are unaware that we have already given up part of the store, even before negotiations started. Apparently, to entice the Iranians to the table, we have already released $490 million of their frozen assets back in January! Iran spends anywhere between $100 to $200 million in aid to Hezbollah annually. The $490 million that we gave them will keep Hezbollah going for another couple of years, or keep Hezbollah, Hamas, and a couple other terror groups going for a year or so! Small wonder that there were celebrations in the streets in Tehran!
We have released other funds, but the amount is unknown at this time. By June, we have agreed to release $11.9 billion in frozen assets. We are also going to release additional $8 billion in assets, allow Iran to collect $4.2 billion in oil sales and $1.5 billion from other imports. That is a significant amount that Iran will collect in the next few months. When all is said and done, the total amount that Iran will get from this deal, once the sanctions are completely lifted, is $250 billion! Most of this information was already released by Al Jazeera and European press. Interestingly, we hear very little from our own media on the money that has already been released to Iran! Iran has already gotten something in return for having only agreed to talk! What have we gotten out of this so far? Perhaps some much needed positive spin and boost for the administration's foreign policy! That's a pretty hefty price to pay for just some political points!
Since we established sanctions against Iran, only Russia, China, and North Korea have conducted business with them. Both Russia and China have built nuclear plants for Iran and North Korea has provided their know-how in building missiles. Just about all of Iran's military hardware has been purchased from either Russia, China, or North Korea. They also have reverse engineered many of those weapons and are now producing them in Iran. Since Iran does not abide by any patent or copyright laws, it freely pirates and reverse engineers weapons and equipment that was acquired from the West. In this fashion Iran has even produced copies of U. S. made weapons and parts that were left over from pre 1979!
Russia and China have a strong interest in seeing Iran as a major player in the Middle East. Ironically, we have asked them to participate in these so-called talks. It was Russia and China that helped Iran set up its vast nuclear plant system, and Russia has just signed a contract to build two new nuclear plants! Russia may not be a communist state anymore, but under Putin, it has started to revive its Soviet-like past belligerent nature - witness what has happened and is happening in Ukraine. Russia would like nothing more than to see a split occur between U.S. and Israel, and have a strong Iran as their own ally! This would definitely shift the geopolitical balance in the Middle East. At one time, Russia as Soviet Union had quite a bit of influence in the Middle East. Israel's victories in the Six Day and Yom Kippur Wars have largely negated that influence. Today, only Syria and Iran appear to be Russia's "friends." That is why it is hard to believe that Russia would be interested in seeing Iran "neutralized."
China too, would like to maintain Iran's position in the region as a power. China may be our economic ally, but it is not our political ally! China wants to spread its own influence and in many parts of the world is in direct competition with us! So, their participation to "de-nuclearize" Iran is indeed a curious affair. All it needed was to have North Korea to participate in the talks to make it truly bizarre! Of course, Russia and China being permanent members of the UN Security Council almost have to be included in any discussions involving world's security. But in this case, it is like having a pair of foxes in a hen house to discuss its security! An addition of a Tasmanian Devil (North Korea) would have made it even more like something that was dreamed up by a mad man!
This so called "Nuclear Deal" is much more than an agreement to stop Iran from making nuclear weapons. That may be our goal, but it is certainly not the goal of Russia or China, or perhaps even some of the European participants in the talks. Iran desperately needed sanctions to be eased, which happened even before the talks started when we released $490 million in January. Since that time we released more funds and have eased sanctions in other areas, although none of it has been widely reported by our media. Iran may very well get more than it hoped for, it already got partial relief from sanctions without having to do anything except agree to talk! They are definitely better negotiators than we are!
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