Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Iran Deal...Who Benefits?

     The administration insists that the Iran Nuclear Deal that we struck and are trying to get Congress and Senate to approve is a wonderful deal.  It is a deal of the century, a deal that averted a disastrous war, according to Kerry who brokered the deal and Obama, who is determined to establish  his legacy as a peacemaker in Middle East. 
     Averted a war?  What war?  Talk about a spin on the subject!  However, the consequences of having the deal go through might very well bring about a war.  How, you might ask.  Is Israel going to attack Iran?  Not likely.  What will happen is that as Iran grows in power, which it will not only because it will receive all the money, but because it will increase its arsenal of weapons.  Once Iran reaches a point where it will feel that it can defend itself successfully against Israeli or other attacks, you can bet your bottom dollar that those Mullahs will launch an attack either openly or using proxies like the Hamas or Hezbollah.  Iran is the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the world and that isn't going to change, because for one thing, the wonderful Nuclear Deal makes no mention of Iran having to curb its terror group support!
     I  don't know how many people, our Congress and Senate included, made note of the fact that the so called "deal" was brokered and struck with the participation of the P-5 plus Germany.  P-5 are the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the U.S., Russia, UK, France, and China.  Germany was thrown in for good measure because it is economically the most powerful country in Europe.  But what makes this whole scene appear ironic is that all of those countries, except for us, are the biggest traders with Iran, even during all of the time the sanctions were in place!
     Russia is largely responsible for establishing Iran's nuclear program.  In addition, Russia was and is one of the main suppliers of military hardware to Iran.  Most of the nuclear expert advisors and technicians in Iran, still working, are Russians.  As soon as the deal was struck and sanctions supposedly to be relaxed, Russia immediately signed a contract with Iran to sell them a missile defense system S-300.  It is a sophisticated, advanced missile defense system that when in place would make it very difficult for anyone, including U.S. or Israel to penetrate Iranian air space.  We have complained, of course.  Kerry has voiced disappointment to his Russian colleague and others in the administration have said that Russia can't do that, sanctions haven't been lifted yet.  Well, since when did Russia listen to our objections?  This is a multi-billion dollar deal that Russia needs very much to shore-up its coffers.  Putin doesn't give a damn about our protests, he has shown that in his actions in Ukraine, he knows we or Europe will not do a damn thing!  So the deal will go through and Iran will get its missile defense system.  What do we do in response?  We just announced that we will send more jets to Europe.....that's really going to scare the hell out of Russia and Iran!
     China is also one of the biggest traders with Iran.  China has technicians (since 1980) in various fields in Iran and has struck multiple deals to get petroleum.  China provides arms to Iran through the backdoor, sort of.  North Korea is used to provide arms sales, this way China cannot be accused of breaking sanctions!  North Korea, of course, doesn't give a damn and is glad to get hard currency while China not only gets a percentage of profits but the good will of Iran.  China averages 171 Million Dollars worth of sales to Iran per year.
     Iran is France's third leading customer in Middle East.  France is in Iran in a big way in automotive field.  64% of cars in Iran are French made.  France has a Peugeot and Renault assembly plants in Iran.
     Germany has over 100 firms either with offices or sales agents.  Roughly 12,000 German firms have representatives in Iran.  Germany's trade with Iran averages 5.67 billion a year and 80% of various machinery in Iran is made in Germany!  Germany is also known to sell small arms to Iran, submachineguns, assault rifles, etc.
     Even UK, our staunchest ally has maintained trade interests with Iran, as have we, through proxies!  So, basically, all countries involved have vested interest in seeing Iran's sanctions lifted!  In our case, it is our oil companies that are hungrily eyeing Iran for possible exploitation as they have done with other countries in the Middle East and with Iran, before the fall of Shah!  We have also sold certain none military machinery and parts to Iran.
     Aside from the news about Russia selling the SA-300 Missile Defense system to Iran, despite our protests, another issue surfaced that is even more disturbing.  The Associated Press ran a story that divulged some information on "side deals" that were made during the so-called nuclear talks.  Apparently IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the governing body for nuclear control and inspection, made a side deal with Iran.  It seems that Iran will be allowed to use its own technicians to do nuclear site inspections with IAEA oversight.  Not sure what that means exactly, but the bottom line is that Iran will self inspect.  Iran will submit samples from each site that they collect, to show to IAEA that they are not producing weapons grade material.  Yeah, right!  I guess lots of people still believe in the tooth fairy!  Obviously IAEA trusts Iran a lot more than I do!
     Despite vehement denials by IAEA. it is obvious that Iran would be allowed to "self inspect," especially the top secret military site Parchin and other similar locations.  Kerry first claimed that he did not have access to IAEA's classified documents.  That is not true.  IAEA is our creation and we are on the governing board and have control and access to all of their material, classified or otherwise! Initially, the administration supported IAEA's claim that Iran was not going to be allowed to "self inspect," that the accusations were not true.  But when Associated Press (which was accused of making up this stuff) produced proof, their reporter did have access to documents that Kerry claimed to have not seen, a different spin was put on the matter.  Now it seems everything is just a big misunderstanding and miscommunication between IAEA and everyone else.  What a mess!
     Yet, we have Senators and Congressmen that apparently are strictly following the party line or believe in the tooth fairy and are supporting this horrible deal.  This is a deal that is not a deal but basically allowing Iran to do as it pleases!  General Soleimani, the so-called "shadow commander" who is the head of Iran's Quds Force, their Special Operations, went to Moscow to ink the deal with Russia on the S-300s.  The Quds Force, which we allowed into Iraq to fight ISIS did experience some success in the field at first, but now is going nowhere.  But, allowing them into Iran and having the little success has gained them tremendous amount of prestige in the Muslim world.  On the other hand, the very fact that we allowed them into Iran makes us look "weak" in the eyes of the Muslims.  After all, we couldn't handle ISIS so we asked help from our enemy, the Iranians!
     The Nuclear Deal will probably go through because there are enough politicians who see things differently.  For instance, there are some moderates, independents, who now claim to see the light and are for the deal.  Well, if the deal does go through, it won't be the end of the world.  But it won't bring peace to the Middle East as some claim and I doubt if Obama will get the Nobel Peace Prize like Jimmy Carter did for his brokering of Camp David Accords.  But then again, the Nobel Committee has been known to do some odd things, who knows, may be Obama has some inside information.  Whatever the case, the world will not be a safer place as claimed by the proponents of the deal.  If anything it will be more dangerous because Iran will have access to more funds to arm itself even more and increase its support of terror groups.
    

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