The latest announcement made by the Pew Research Center is that by mid century, around 2065, the largest immigrant group in America will be Asian. When I heard that on CNN, it caught me by surprise. I have closely followed the immigration patterns to the U.S. by various ethnic and national groups since the 1980s. I had direct access to all the statistics and actual numbers all through the 1980s and 1990s while I was still working for the State Department. What I saw then was that although Asian immigration into the U.S. was large, it was surpassed significantly by the Hispanic immigration, especially from Mexico. Additionally, and more importantly, the illegal immigrant population of Hispanics far outnumbered any other group, so much so that a Harvard study in 2000 declared that by mid century the majority population in the U.S. would be Hispanic. This claim was repeated not too long ago, both by an academic study and our own census bureau. Then how is it that the Pew is now saying that the Asians would be the largest immigrant group by mid 2000?
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Hispanic immigrants make up 47% of all immigrants in the U.S. That figure is supposed to drop to 31% by mid century. However, the total Hispanic immigrant population will increase by 24% by that time, while Asian immigrant population will increase by 14%. Now these figures are based strictly on "legal" immigrants, those who enter the U.S. with proper immigrant visas. These numbers do not include the "illegal" immigrants, those who cross the border and live in the U.S. without proper documentation. Naturally, the "illegals" are not going to identify themselves with census takers, so the U.S. Census Bureau has no idea how many "illegals" are in this country and those figures are not included. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the former Immigration and Naturalization Service and Border Patrol, is the only one that can take a stab at guessing the numbers for "illegals" in this country. DHS claims that there are roughly 11 million "illegals" in the U.S. I am not sure how they arrived at those figures since those numbers were much higher before! Perhaps they caught all those "illegals" and deported them? I remember hearing numbers around 15 to 20 million being bandied around back in 2000! Now they seem to have shrunk in half.
Whatever the case may be, it is obvious that the "illegals" are not included in the Pew study so you can't really accept their findings as being accurate. They are only accurate if you discount the millions of "illegals." But then again, I have some issues with their calculations. If today's Hispanic immigration numbers stand at 47% of total number of immigrants to the U.S. and it will increase by 24% by mid century, how then could the total numbers be down to 31%? That makes no sense. Asian immigration numbers are to increase by 14% by mid century. How could Asian immigrant numbers become greater than Hispanic? It is mathematically not possible! Is this some sort of new math? I can't figure this out.
What the Pew study purports without explaining the details is that Asians will comprise the largest number of "foreign born" or those who have been in the U.S. less than five years, immigrant group in America. That, they explain, is due mainly because of the large number of Chinese graduate students in America and Indians who are hired for high-tech jobs. However, technically and legally speaking, students and skilled technical workers brought in on special visas are not immigrants! The students are to return to their country after finishing their studies when their "F" visas expire, and the skilled hi-tech workers must also leave after the allowed period of stay according to their "H" visa. So, both the Chinese graduate students and the Indian hi-tech hires are not immigrants! Of course some of the students and hi-tech hires stay on by getting jobs and immigrant visas, but a majority of them return to their home country. They are, for all practical purposes, like the visitors or tourists, so they are not immigrants. But for some reason, the Pew study uses these figures to make their findings.
What I find interesting is that nowhere in this study is there any mention of the "illegals" and their impact on the immigrant population in America. It is as if an attempt is made to lessen the illegal alien or "undocumented immigrant" crises in America by shifting attention to a newly created situation, a new "Asian Invasion," although not as menacing as before. After all, these are highly educated Asians who will definitely be an asset to our society! I can't help but feel that there is a "liberal media" and pro "undocumented immigrant" group involvement in the process with a generous helping from our government! After all, how long has it been since there was anything in the news about the problems on our southern border? Those problems are still very much there and they haven't gone away or gotten less, as some would like us to believe.
By mid century, the population of America will be around 320 million of which only 46% will be made up of non-Hispanic whites. In 1965 84% of the U.S. population was non-Hispanic white, and it is currently at around 62%. The African-American population went from around 11% to 15% and is expected to be around 17% by mid century. Asian-Americans made up less than 1% in 1965 and are currently somewhere around 3% and will increase to about 5% by mid century. That leaves Hispanics at around 32%, but when you add the "illegals" to that number, it should bump up the figure somewhat. Still not a majority according to those figures, but a significant number.
You can play around with statistics and bend and twist them to your liking, everyone knows that. Corporations and governments have played with figures before the first illegal crossed the border, but one thing is evident from these latest "findings." No matter how you twist and bend the numbers, the Hispanic population in America will be much larger in the years to come, Chinese graduate students and Indian hi-tech hires notwithstanding! My granddaughter Claudia started college this year. My advice to her was to take Spanish regardless of what she chose for her major!
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