I don't mean to sound as if Putin is some sort of a "bogeyman," but I think too many Americans take him too lightly, and that includes our politicians. Despite the new technological age with instant communication and social media that seems to spread news before it even becomes news, America is physically separated from Europe and other countries by great distances. Except for Mexico and Canada, America is not cheek to jowl with other countries as Europe and Asia has existed for centuries. This causes somewhat of an isolationist view and mentality on the part of some Americans.
Yes, in some ways he is in our eyes a caricature of a world leader. He may seem silly to us posing bare-chested on horseback or whatever, but to many in Russia and other parts of the world, among people who are not quite as jaded as we are, he represents a macho image that translates to strength and hope for their people. It is a mistake for us to wave it off as amateurish posturing by a tin pot dictator. He is no tin pot dictator, and although his posturing may seem "amateurish" to us, it is convincing and works for others, others that are under his rule!
Putin's view of the world may not be the same as ours. He may indeed have a cock-eyed view of the world's geopolitics as far as we are concerned. But that is precisely why he is so dangerous and not foolish or out of touch as he seems by our standards. Putin is convinced that the greatest 20th Century geopolitical disaster was the demise of his beloved Soviet Union. He has openly stated this on many occasions. He has, as I've mentioned in some earlier blogs, an almost pathological hatred for the United States and what it stands for. He blames all of Russia's woes on the United States.
He is slowly bringing back many of the old Soviet Union ways, sort of sneaking them in! The first thing that went completely unnoticed by most Americans was the reestablishment of the old Soviet Union anthem as the Russian National Anthem. The Soviet Anthem was one of the first things that Boris Yeltsin got rid of when he came to power. Yeltsin revived the old Tsarist Russian Anthem, changed the lyrics of course, getting rid of any reference to the Tsar. But Putin, as soon as he came to power, got rid of the Russian anthem and reinstituted the old Soviet anthem, claiming that people were not used to the old Tsarist version and that the Soviet version with some word changes was just fine. Naturally, it went unnoticed outside of Russia. Little by little, he brought back many of the old Soviet ways, including his rule!
Putin is not a fool and he knows that he can't revert the country back to a communist state, but he can make enough changes that it will suit his old Soviet style of rule! Keep in mind that this man spent 16 years of his life as a KGB officer, a job that he dearly loved! He reached the rank of a Lieutenant Colonel in KGB before the old Soviet Union collapsed. It is hard for someone like him to shed his old skin and beliefs and become a "new" person. He had dreamed of becoming a KGB officer since he was a young kid! To that end he prepared himself physically and mentally. He may not have been the greatest intelligence officer around, but in his mind, no doubt he was! For someone who spent all of his youth training, and 16 years of his adult life working to bring down the capitalist West, especially the hated enemy the United States, it is a hard pill to swallow to have to play second fiddle to America now. That is why he is doing everything and anything possible to tweak America's nose and to push his way as far as he can.
Fortunately for Putin, our government today gives ground every time he pushes. If you look back to the last five years or so, especially since the Syrian civil war, every time Putin bulled his way, we gave ground by not responding or complaining, but not doing much except the so-called sanctions for his misbehavior in Ukraine.
In a recent speech Putin announced that the Third World War was inevitable, and that the United States would be responsible for it for all the recent missteps in our foreign policy. He boldly proclaimed that Russia was indeed a nuclear power (which it is!) and hinted that it may be forced to use its power to "defend" itself. He once more stated that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th Century. Hearing his words, one can't help but feel that he yearns for the old days and blames the United States for everything bad that happened to Russia! You can't take someone who feels and thinks like that lightly, no matter what you may personally think about his ideas or actions.
Putin's latest adventure in Syria, entering that mess on the side of Al-Assad, was viewed by many with alarm, and ironically, welcomed by some! We are a nation so divided politically that our politicians cannot see real danger in front of them unless it has something to do with party politics! Many of our politicians actually welcomed Putin's intervention in Syria because it allowed them to point an accusing finger at Obama's lack of policy and backbone regarding Syria. Others simply "poo-pooed" the whole thing saying that let Russia worry about Syria! It gives us a chance to back off! Still others are saying that Russia's involvement only destabilizes the region even more and that it will increase the ISIS and Al Qaeda presence. All of these prognostications are correct! No doubt the region will be further destabilized, extremists presence will increase, and Russia will get bogged down in Syria just as it did in Afghanistan. However, the bigger danger is that we will come to actual armed conflict with Russian planes or even ground troops.
To get his way, Putin is willing to risk Russian lives and even possible confrontation with us, because he feels that we will back down! He has absolutely no respect or fear of Europe. He is known to joke and refer to France as a wine drinking nation that gives up fighting when the wine supply runs short, referring to France's quick capitulation to Germany during World War Two. After the recent terrorist incident on the train to Paris where three Americans jumped the gunman, he is said to have joked and said that once again France needed America to bail them out of trouble! England, he is known to refer to as a nation of "boy" lovers.
The rest of Europe he dismisses as of no consequence except for Germany. However, Germany he feels will side with Russia in a pinch! He feels that way about Germany because of his personal association (having worked in Germany for 5 years) and his fluent knowledge of German. Additionally, he is a personal friend of Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor! Angela, if you don't know, speaks fluent Russian (won a prize for her excellence in Russian when she was a student!) and is a former East German. Germany, particularly the former East Germany has high unemployment and still has former communists who like Putin long for the "good old days." Putin, correctly or wrongly, assumes that deep in her heart Angela Merkel is a communist like himself. They are only two years apart in age and get along famously whenever they meet, able to switch conversations from Russian to German, back and forth without the use of any translators!
Putin is no Stalin. But he is, in his own way, very much like all the other Soviet leaders that followed Stalin. He is essentially no different from Khrushev, Kosygin, Brezhnev, et all. He knows he can't revert back to the old Soviet Union, but he can try to build a new Russia that is a facsimile of the old Soviet Union. Perhaps not as large, but still plenty big. As he said in one of his speeches, "we don't need new territory, we are large enough!" Ukraine and Crimea was a different story. Historically those regions were part of Russia and he needs warm water ports desperately, and Crimea provides him with warm water ports.
The bottom line is that Putin will take whatever he can, by force, if necessary. He has a deep, abiding hatred for the United States and the west in general with the exception of Germany. It is a mistake to take him lightly or to give ground whenever he pushes. The standard Soviet policy was to push as far as they could, until it became not winnable for them, then they backed off. That is what happened during the Cuban Missile Crises. That is what happened in Korea during Korean War. They supported Kim Il Sung until he started losing then they backed off, knowing that China would step in if we (UN forces) got too close to Chinese border. They did the same thing in Vietnam! Yes, Russia may fail miserably in Syria, but at what cost? Syria will fall to ISIS! Or, they will succeed and bomb the hell out of everyone and Al-Assad will be back in power fully and Russia will gain a solid foothold in the Middle East. Did you know that Russia has already established a joint headquarters for fighting Islamic Extremists in the region? Their joint headquarters which includes Russia, Iran, and Iraq is set up in Baghdad! Hell, we're still in Iraq, what are we doing?
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