The New Axis

     About ten days ago I did a blog titled "The Rise of the New Axis."  In it, I talked of how Russia has re-allied itself with its "old" communist bloc ally, the People's Republic of China and how North Korea has found new life as the surrogate/proxy force for Russia and China in northeast Asia.  It is a mutually beneficial alliance in which all three benefit from this partnership.  It is especially gratifying for North Korea to finally be accepted back into the "circle" as it were, and not to be cast adrift on its own as it has been for the past couple of decades.
     If you think that Obama's visit to Vietnam was motivated strictly by commercial interests, you would be mistaken.  Although his visit was ostensibly for the purpose of strengthening commercial ties (selling more American planes, etc.), it definitely had an ulterior motive of keeping Vietnam out of that "circle," that axis alliance!  I don't believe Vietnam is/was interested in joining that alliance.  It is enjoying new found wealth and development far too much to risk losing it all by antagonizing the U.S. who is their biggest market! 
     Although during the Vietnam War North Vietnam received arms and aid from the Soviet Union as well as PRC, they were never truly a part of that "circle."  We may have mistakenly identified them as part of the Soviet Bloc, but they always marched to their own tune.  Remember?  Only a short time after the end of the Vietnam War, the new Vietnamese army clashed with PRC and gave them a bloody nose!  There is no love lost between China and Vietnam, and this feeling is not only mutual, but goes back many centuries!  So, the new axis is, at this time, mainly Russia, China, and North Korea.
     China's recent announcement that they will dispatch their nuclear submarines to patrol waters along their coast is indeed a disturbing development.  We have been the masters of the Pacific, mainly because of our superior nuclear submarine force.  Our subs have been patrolling the Pacific, essentially unmolested since the 1960s!  We have had run-ins with Soviet submarines through the ages.  There have been countless incidences of "cat and mouse" games played by U.S. and Soviet subs in the Pacific.  But generally speaking, we have had no competition.  We have the world's largest submarine fleet, which currently is all nuclear powered.  The old Soviet Union was second to us in nuclear subs, and the rest of the world really didn't count.  Things have changed dramatically since those days of "cat and mouse" games with Soviet subs.
     Today, U.S. still has the world's largest submarine fleet with 75 boats, all nuclear.  But what is surprising and unknown to most Americans is that North Korea has 70 submarines in its fleet.  Granted, only a some are nuclear powered, and their technology is not up to our standards.  But nevertheless, that's an awful lot of subs for such a small country!  China is next with 68 combined submarines, nuclear and diesel, and Russia has 60 submarines, just about all of them nuclear.  So now, with the new axis in place, our 75 submarines are faced with 198 opposing submarines, of which over 100 are nuclear!  You can say all you want about the superior technology of our boats, which is true.  But the sheer numbers of the "inferior" subs that we are facing is making me nervous.  This number is increasing almost weekly as China has gone into high gear to produce more nuclear subs.
     We are now in danger of losing our supremacy in the Pacific.  China would have never boldly announced as they have, that they will be patrolling their waters with nuclear subs, if they didn't feel that they were gaining advantage.  Unfortunately, Chinese leaders are much better poker players than our leadership in Washington!  In the past, the only waters in the Pacific that were contested and in which we had to tip-toe somewhat were the northern Pacific waters where Soviet submarines used to roam.  Anything below the coast of Japan and Korea was our territory, unchallenged.  That has changed and is changing rapidly.  China will now contest (and has already started!) the waters around its coast.  North Korea was always a thorn on the side.  Now, with nuclear capabilities, it is even a bigger thorn!  Incidentally, just as Russian submarines, both the Chinese and North Korean subs had been spotted as far away as our Pacific coast for many years.  So, despite our superiority, they have been roaming the Pacific as well.
     Just as the old Soviet Union avoided actual hostilities, stopped just short of firing missiles or torpedoes during those submarine "cat and mouse" games, so will the Chinese.  But I am not too sure about the North Koreans, they are unpredictable, a true wild card.  In fact, as I said in the earlier blog, if there are any actual armed hostilities in northeast Asia, it will be North Korea, acting as a proxy for China or Russia!  Putin is well on his way of reestablishing a "new" Soviet Union.
     I don't believe that China will actually risk going to war over some artificial island far from its shores, or over some supposed incursion into its territory.  Neither will Russia, despite their tough talk and sometimes belligerent behavior.  They will continue to buzz our ships, even more aggressively, but they are not interested in an armed confrontation. 
     Yes, China is interested in world domination.  But they know they can accomplish it without firing a shot.  The Chinese are very practical people, so why go to war when inevitable will happen.  China will dominate the world economically within this century, perhaps sooner than later.  The danger comes not from China but from North Korea that might misinterpret the situation or intent of the other party and start shooting!
     I am not trying to be a doomsday-sayer, but I believe our government should pay much more attention to what is going on with the development of the new axis.  There are plenty of indications that it is taking place and developing much faster than most might think.