The latest bit of information coming out of Malaysia concerning the Kim Jong Nam assassination just throws more confusion, with no definite answers in sight! Seeing as how the cause of the Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 crash of three years ago is still shrouded in mystery, I have no confidence that the Malaysian authorities will ever truly solve the Kim Jong Nam assassination, at least not without some serious outside help!
As of yet, they have not been able to determine what toxin was used to poison Kim, and this, after two autopsies! The list of suspects have grown to something like eight people, including members of the North Korean Embassy in Kuala Lumpur as well as several employees of the North Korean official airlines, Air Koryo. However, nothing appears to be for certain. The theories on the method of poison application has varied wildly, from spraying with a bottle to injection with a needle, and what appeared on the video, covering the face with a cloth soaked in poison. The latest claim is that both women had their hands soaked in toxic substance and they smeared Kim Jong Nam's face with their hands. The video that is being shown indicates otherwise. Additionally, if their hands were indeed soaked in toxic substance, why didn't they succumb to the poison? The Malaysian authorities claim that the women immediately went to the rest room and washed their hands. But if the poison was as fast acting as it seemed to have been, killing Kim within minutes of application, those women should be dead as well, since they had the poison on their hands even before they supposedly rubbed it on Kim's face!
Nothing seems to make sense in Malaysian authorities explanation! The latest claim is that the women were true assassins and knew all along what they were doing. They had practice runs with other people (without using actual poison!) pretending that they were shooting a reality prank show. At least that is what the Malaysian investigators are now saying. So, if we are to believe what the authorities are saying, aside from several possible versions of poison application, the assassination was carried out by a large group of collaborators, including the two women who were the actual assassins.
South Korean intelligence was the first to officially announce that it was plain and simple North Korean assassination. North Korea has denied involvement, claiming it is all a plot by South Korea and Malaysia to smear the innocent reputation of North Korea. Interestingly, there has been absolutely no news coverage of this in North Korea! As far as North Korean citizens are concerned, Kim Jong Nam is alive and well, somewhere. Like with so many things, the population in North Korea is kept completely in the dark.
China has been mysteriously silent, at least in the official sector. The Chinese government has not made a statement concerning this incident that is of any significance. But as is typical of Chinese politics, much of what the government may actually think has been expressed by so-called "private sector" media, which in fact is the "unofficial," official mouthpiece for the Chinese government. The "unofficial"- official media has begun to speculate that perhaps this was done by North Korea to disrupt any chances by China to replace Kim Jong Un. Kim Jong Nam, during his lifetime, openly said that he was not interested in taking the reigns of the country. But, China would have used him as a puppet. Kim Jong Nam was pro-Chinese and frequently stated that North Korea should adopt China's policy for economic development and allow free enterprise system. This, of course, did not sit well with his half brother Kim Jong Un, who had a standing "contract" or order to assassinate his older half brother.
There are some in the politburo of Beijing government who think that North Korea would prefer to align with South Korea and the U.S. rather than become a Chinese "vassal" state as Korea used to be in the historical past. That is not far-fetched. North Korea came within a "whisker" of becoming a Chinese "colony" during the Korean War after they were routed by the UN forces in the fall of 1950. It was only because of Stalin, who would not allow Mao to take over North Korea, that the Chinese refrained from occupying North Korea making it into another Tibet or Inner Mongolia!
Today, North Korea is almost totally dependent on China for economic support. Many North Koreans in the leadership positions don't like it a bit. Since the 19th Century, Korea has preferred to align with Russia, but Russia is in no position to support North Korea at this time. Besides, Russia may be ruled by a dictator, but it is no longer a communist state. So, some North Koreans actually see alignment with South Korea and the U.S. as lesser of the two evils. Naturally, they see the prospect of eventually taking over the South, that is part of their motivation. But still, they would prefer to play "footsie" with South Korea and the U.S. rather than remain dependent on China for economic support.
Will we be able to do something? Will we be able to start negotiating with North Korea? Who knows, they are so unpredictable and so out of sync with the rest of the world that it is impossible to predict what will happen. Besides, when it comes to negotiations, we have always taken a beating. I can't figure out why it is so. The U.S. is no longer the same country that it was back in the day, during World War Two when there was a definite shortage of "Asia Experts." Today there are plenty of scholars, businessmen, and government official who are very knowledgeable about Asia. But for some reason, when it comes to negotiations, we seem to always take a beating. But then, that has been the case not only with Asia, but with Middle East, Europe, and whoever else we deal with!
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