North Korea, a "Lost Cause?"

     I will begin the new era, i.e., new U.S. President in office, with a blog on the North Korean issue.  The problem with North Korea, their nuclear built-up, is something that has haunted not only the previous administration, but goes back to the Clinton era.  It seems that for the past quarter of a century or so, ever since North Korea's nuclear development became known, we have been unable to establish any sort of an agreement or an understanding that would curb their nuclear development.  We first dealt with the unstable, crazy Kim Jong Il, the father of the current psychotic leader, Kim Jong Un.  The Clinton administration supposedly struck some sort of a deal, at least it was announced as a "success," which obviously it was not!  We imposed extremely harsh sanctions on North Korea, much harsher than anything that we did with Iran or Cuba.  Yet they were able to survive all that because of their economic ties with China.
     A year ago the Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, reported to the House Armed Services Committee that in his opinion, North Korea was a much more dangerous and important nuclear adversary than Iran.  Yet, it seems we spent more time and energy to "de-nuclearize" Iran by striking the now famous Iran Nuclear Deal.  Clapper reported at that time that although Iran's nuclear development may have gone dormant after the "deal," there was no way to really verify if they had stopped nuclear development.  Remember, the agreement was that Iran would mostly "self-inspect" for possible violations of the agreement.  By the way, Iran has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the region, and we did nothing to reduce their missile inventory!
     A month before our Presidential Elections took place, DNI Clapper once again reported to the Armed Services Committee and talked about North Korea's advancement in nuclear development since his last report some nine months earlier.  He pointed out that although we had been counting on China to control North Korea, it was in fact in China's best interest to keep North Korea in the position that it is now!  When we had deployed the THAD anti missile system in South Korea and Japan, China protested, because the THAD radar system could penetrate into China's defensive system!  So, the idea that China would do something to stop North Korea in its nuclear development is not realistic.  North Korea at this point is almost completely dependent on China for economic assistance, the only country that trades openly with them!  Clapper suggested that the idea of negotiating with North Korea on the nuclear issue was a "lost cause."  This remark set off a chain of commentary by news media, which unfortunately, has been lost in the midst of all the news about our Presidential Elections and other things that took place, like terrorist attacks!
     What DNI Clapper meant was that as long as North Korea had China in its corner, all the harsh sanctions were not going to help as much as we think.  In order to successfully negotiate any kind of an agreement, we would have to offer them something more than just lifting the sanctions.  One of the things that would help would at the same time alienate our ally in the south, the Republic of Korea.  North Korea desperately wants to be recognized as a legitimate state.  That is why they always insist that we, the U.S. must be the key representative in any sort of negotiations.  We tried the multi national approach, including all of the countries in the region, but it didn't work.  They didn't care about the other countries, even China, their main economic lifeline, didn't matter as much as our presence, our recognition of their existence and status as a legitimate country.
     Unfortunately, we run into the very same problem that we do with the "one China" policy.  We cannot grant North Korea the kind of recognition they want without seriously damaging our ties and relations with South Korea.  I hope that our new administration realizes the importance of trying to resolve the situation with North Korea.  It has been ignored for too long by previous administrations, almost seemingly waived off as not being all that important.  It was a huge mistake.  What it has done is create the monster that we now have, a rogue nuclear power in the region!
     Although North Korea had threatened to "nuke" the inauguration, no one really thought they would do that.  It was obviously designed to draw attention, nothing more.  "Experts" predicted that they would probably launch a missile test or something, but that has not happened.  All has been quiet since the inauguration.  It is apparent that they are waiting to see what would be the first move of the new administration.  Hopefully Trump will take North Korea seriously and try to come up with a solution.  It would require some very hard core negotiations and there will be some ground giving as in all transactions.  But hopefully Trump's negotiators will be better than their predecessors and we will not pull another Iran Nuclear Deal.  We can't afford to have two disastrous nuclear deals with rogue states at the same time!  Let's wait and see, but not too long!