The news few days ago was that North Korea had tested ICBMs capable of reaching our West Coast. Since it is more or less agreed that they have nuclear weapons and are capable of having the warheads carried by their missiles, this latest development is indeed alarming. I have said earlier that North Korea had the missiles capable of reaching our shores and this latest test only confirmed my earlier fears.
North Korea is a rogue nation, make no mistake about it. It is ostensibly under the influence of China (earlier we though Russia had some influence, but we were mistaken), but now China itself admits that they have very little control, if any, over what Kim Jong Un and his gang decide to do. China has always been historically concerned more about commerce and economic gain than anything else. For a brief period, from 1949 when PRC got its start until about the late 1980s, China really did not have much of an economic clout. Today, however, it is the world's number two economic power, only behind the U.S. and soon to become the number one economic power! It is not about to give up its position and it is actively involved in trading with North Korea. China is North Korea's lifeline at this time, and they are not about to stop trading with this rogue nation, because being its main trading partner, it is just too profitable.
If for whatever reason China decides not to carry on their very profitable and thriving trade relations with North Korea, then North Korea will be forced to go elsewhere to survive! North Korea is already selling weapons, illegally, to some nations through third parties, sometimes even fourth or fifth parties. The "end user" route is so convoluted and complicated that it is very, very difficult to trace. But through this complicated route, North Korea is able to sell its SCUD missiles and katyusha rockets to various other rogue states. During the first Gulf War, Saddam Hussein's rockets were mostly North Korean. The Hamas in the Palestinian zone are armed with North Korean katyusha rockets which they fire periodically and indiscriminately into the Israeli zone. So, although North Korea gets most of its money by trading with China, it earns also a considerable amount through weapons sales. So far, as far as it is known, they have not sold any nuclear weapons. However, should their trade with China be disrupted, you can count on seeing North Korean nukes appearing in the hands of terror groups!
Sanctions against North Korea have been brutal, and except for China, no one else has really been able to trade with them. What few joint venture operations that the North had with the South was brought to an end because of serious differences other than political. Mainly it was that the North was demanding a larger cut of profits with lesser contribution on their part. Not a very reasonable demand but very predictable and typical of that regime.
The U.S. has built up the military defenses around the region and has encouraged and helped Japan to beef-up its defense capability. Everybody appears to be in the "war mode" and scrambling for more weaponry, more defensive measures. North Korea, in response, is of course doing the same and increasing its forces along the DMZ and moving more missile batteries and other weapons closer to the south as well as the eastern coast facing Japan. North Korea has a standing army that is over a million, larger than the combined forces of South Korea, Japan, and what we have in the region. "Experts" keep saying that their army is not "modern" like ours and our allies, and that we are technologically superior. Well, we were technologically superior to the North Korean and Chinese forces during Korean War, and look what it got us?
Trump's administration is going to have a difficult time trying to figure out how to resolve this problem on the Korean peninsula. The so-called "Chinese Option," having China exert its influence to control North Korea is not going to work, hopefully the new administration will realize that. The sanctions haven't really worked except to make life miserable for the innocent population. Further sanctions and using the "Chinese Option" might drive North Korea to selling its nuclear weapons to anyone willing to pay! Building up the defenses any further is really not an option. At this point, many believe that further increase in defensive built up is not going to help.
That leaves only one option, and it is not an option at all! It means carrying out a preemptive strike against North Korea to destroy their nuclear capability. That essentially means launching a war with no guarantee that it will not trigger a nuclear response from North Korea before we can destroy all of their weapons or capability! Do we know where all of their nuclear facilities are located? Do we know for sure where all their launch sites are? We must have rock solid intelligence in this area to be able to carry out a preemptive strike. The so-called "shock and awe" approach that we used so successfully in Iraq is not going to work in North Korea! More than a decade ago when North Korea started to make noise about nuclear weapons again, a possible preemptive strike was discussed but quickly abandoned. The then Secretary of Defense, known for his rather undiplomatic use of language, said that we must not confuse the North Koreans with Iraqis! He said that unless the preemptive strike knocks out all of their capabilities immediately, we will be in for a long and bloody, and costly conflict!
The Trump administration will indeed be facing a very, very difficult situation with North Korea. They could, of course, ignore the whole thing as it has been ignored for the past eight years, and let the situation stew longer. What that would do would be to create an even more dangerous North Korea that will have more time to make more bombs and develop even better missiles to carry their warheads! Not a very promising situation. Let's see what the new administration will do.
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