Will our policy in Asia be changing with the new administration? That is an interesting question and one that will probably be answered within the first year of Trump administration. Our new Secretary of Defense James Mattis will be leaving for Asia in a few days and visit South Korea first, followed by Japan, meeting with his counterparts to discuss security issues. No doubt the visit is planned to send a message both to North Korea and China, that we will be staunchly supportive of those countries, despite all the talk about changing attitudes, etc.
I believe that possibly the shift in our Asian policy began even before Trump took office officially when he took the congratulatory call from the President of Taiwan. Trump also announced at the time that he will reconsider our policy toward China and Taiwan! This, of course, created a stir and critics were quick to jump on the bandwagon to accuse Trump of not knowing what he was doing and creating a possible disaster in Asia. Trump followed up his China remarks with statements that he felt that both Japan and South Korea needed to contribute more financially to the presence of our troops in their countries. This again created some excitement and criticism of Trump. So, it is claimed by some that Mattis's trip to South Korea and Japan is simply to assuage the possible damage that those earlier remarks may have caused, to sort of smooth the ruffled feathers of the Japanese and South Koreans.
It may very well be true that Trump may have just spoken rashly (something that he seems to have knack for doing) and is now trying to repair any damage. But it may also have been a calculated remark made to set the stage to gain some bargaining leverage. After all, he has been a businessman all of his life, not a politician. Good businessmen always leave room for themselves for bargaining maneuver, and Trump may have just done that with his remarks and phone conversation with Taiwan President. He has already stated that he believed that our trading arrangement with China needed to be overhauled, that it was too one-sided in favor of China.
According to some sources, South Korean military ranks anywhere between 4th and 11th place in the world military power rankings. It is ranked above Israel. Japan, which has been a toothless tiger until recently has dramatically improved its military capability since 2015 and some rank it just as high, if not higher than South Korea. Taiwan too is ranked very high, despite its rather small military size of only 300,000 active duty personnel. All three of these countries are highly technologically advanced and have very modern equipment. As pure military powers they are perhaps not ranked as high as India or some other countries with huge armies. But when you combine their technological capabilities and their economic power to back the military, they become much more capable and highly ranked.
India, Turkey, Iran, and other such countries with large armies just do not have the industrial complex to support the military for a prolonged period. If they resort to using nuclear weapons then it would be a suicidal effort if used against another nuclear power. A counter or a retaliatory nuclear strike by the enemy could conceivably paralyze their industrial complex in one fell swoop. If India and Pakistan went to war again and decided to carryout nuclear strikes, the war would end after one strike by each side! The same thing applies to North Korea. Make no mistake about it, they are extremely dangerous and reckless. But if they carried out a nuclear strike and U.S. and allies retaliated, that would essentially be the end of North Korea!
Japan, despite its relatively small military, has fast become a very modern, capable military force. Some experts predict that Japan could easily convert to a formidable military power in no time, given its vast industrial complex and wealth of the nation. Since 2015, under Abe, Japan has been building its military rapidly, presently fielding a small but very modern, highly trained force. South Korea has had a powerful army owing to its situation with North Korea. Although South Korean army is not as large as their North Korean counterpart, they are, like the Japanese, very modern, well trained, and backed by a nation that, although small, is a world industrial power! Taiwan, the smallest of the three, has gone somewhat unnoticed, overshadowed by its larger neighbor China, and the richer Japanese. But Taiwan is a powerful state in its own right with a very efficient and effective modern industry that is fully capable of supporting its military. Experts estimate that Taiwan could last a whole year in a full blown war against China, without any support or help from U.S. or other countries.
A military alliance between Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would create a major problem for China and North Korea. Already, those three countries have economic agreements, sort of a free trade type of arrangement, which allows its citizens free travel and even employment within the three countries. It is an unprecedented arrangement that was quietly made without any announcements and has been in existence for a number of years. So, speaking from trade and economic standpoint, China is already encircled partially by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Fortunately for China, those three countries also happen to be major trading partners with China. But if a military alliance takes place with those three, supported by the U.S., it would be a major set back for China. That is one reason why China is flexing its military muscles in the South China Sea region, squabbling over tiny artificial islands, etc. Nothing would please China more than have U.S. pull its troops out of Japan and Korea and end its military ties with those countries as it had with Taiwan.
Currently Taiwan has no known military ties with any country, although they have been buying hardware from us, which has been a sore point with China. But should a military alliance take place with South Korea and Japan, then Taiwan would have much more access to military equipment and other material to strengthen its military. A military alliance of sorts has now begun to take shape between Japan and South Korea, mainly thanks to North Korea's dangerous behavior and nuclear development. It won't take much to formalize the arrangement, military exchanges are already taking place. If Taiwan is drawn into the arrangement, then the tri-country alliance that China fears will take place. Taiwan, incidentally, has been involved in supporting our efforts both in the Korean War and Vietnam. Their participation was very clandestine and mostly involved Special Operations type activity. South Korea was, of course, actively involved in Vietnam and provided the largest number of combat troops after U.S. and South Vietnam! Japan provided transport (ships) and other industrial equipment during Korean War and also during Vietnam. So, all three countries have been involved in the past supporting our efforts in Asia and indirectly or directly, against China!
Is this the plan of our new Asian policy? Is the new administration trying to create new alliances and shift the balance of power in East Asia? Should the new triple Asian alliance occur, it would certainly give us more leverage in any kind of negotiations with China! On the otherhand, it could be just that Trump misspoke and has sent Mattis to South Korea and Japan to make amends. Its hard to say at this point. I would like to think that our new leaders in Washington are capable of out-maneuvering and out-negotiating the opposition, composed of smart, clever individuals who can go toe to toe with the Chinese on the negotiating table. In the past we have been repeatedly taken to the "cleaners" by the Chinese and other countries (Iran, for example!). I'd hate to think that we are back to square one with bumbling individuals, who think they are smarter than they are and the only difference is that the new set of players are mostly businessmen instead of lawyers! I hope not.
No comments:
Post a Comment