My last blog was on the subject of Korea around 1890s. Now we jump some 125 years to 2016 and once again cover Kim Jung Un, my favorite North Korean subject! Kim Jung Un is my favorite North Korean subject not because I am fond of him or, god forbid, admire him! He is my favorite subject of that poor wretched country because he is such a nut-case, so unpredictable, so unconventional! Yet, if you really look at him closely, he is very predictable and his actions or reactions can be easily second-guessed with the right kind of mind set. Unfortunately, our government has been looking at him and dealing with him as if he was a "normal" person. He is not, so he should not be treated as such!
North Korea's latest nuclear test which registered 5+ on the seismic meter (the size of decent earthquake!) was claimed by them as a hydrogen bomb test. Everyone immediately jumped in panic and started testing the air, etc. The latest conclusion is that it was not a hydrogen bomb, just a big atomic bomb! A hydrogen bomb supposedly has ten times the power of an atomic bomb such as the one dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This one was supposed to have been "only" five times bigger. So, our government and the news media seems to be saying that there is not much to worry about, since it is only a bomb that is just bigger than the ones they already have, not a hydrogen bomb.
I don't know about you, but the fact that it is not a hydrogen bomb does not make me feel any safer! An atomic bomb that is "only" five times greater in power than the one dropped on Hiroshima is more than powerful enough to do catastrophic damage wherever it is dropped! It is a known fact that North Korea now has the capability to deliver nuclear warheads on one of their ICBMs that can reach our West Coast! A hydrogen bomb would be too large to deliver by an ICBM, so a large atomic bomb is a much more likely candidate! To me, the fact that North Korea developed a more powerful atomic bomb rather than a hydrogen bomb is much more alarming. They do not have the capability to deliver bombs by aircraft, which is how a large device such as a hydrogen bomb would have to be delivered. A North Korean bomber would be shot down before it even reached Japan! But, they do have ICBMs capable of carrying nuclear devices, so the development of a more powerful atomic device is much more dangerous and significant!
Why is Kim Jung Un so brashly ignoring everyone's warnings and threats and going ahead with illegal nuclear bomb testing? Well, it isn't hard to figure that out. Remember what happened earlier in 2015? Remember that wonderful "world peace making" Iran Nuclear Deal in which we gave Iran billions of dollars and partially lifted sanctions? Remember what Iran did with the fresh funds they received from us? They not only immediately bought the latest anti missile system from Russia but started testing their missile systems ignoring the UN sanctions about weapons testing, claiming that it was not a part of the Nuclear Deal. In less than a year's time since making that Nuclear Deal, they bought a new missile defense system, ignored UN sanctions and tested missiles twice, once almost hitting U.S. ships in Persian Gulf! They've entered Iraq (initially at our invitation!) and are major participants in Syria, partnering with Russia!
Now, just think what went on in that fat head of Kim Jung Un's when all of this was taking place? What kind of a signal did it send him? It showed him that with enough pressure we will give up the store, give billions of dollars and lift sanctions if we think we got a "deal," and Iran doesn't even have nuclear weapons yet! In short, Iran was able to do all of the things that it wasn't supposed to do, and get money from us to boot! Kim's thinking is that, of course, if we are willing to give all that money and still allow Iran to do as it pleases, think what we would do if he exploded a few more nuclear devices! Its not difficult to figure what Kim is thinking, there is nothing inscrutable or mysterious or unfathomable about his actions. He wants us to sit and talk with him and agree to give him billions and lift sanctions if he will only stop testing nuclear bombs!
Remember what I said in earlier blogs when I talked about North Korea. I am puzzled why we continue to pay so little attention to that country, which in my estimation is more dangerous than Iran! Iran may sponsor terrorists, they are doing so openly with Hamas and Hezbollah, but they are not capable of actually striking us in any way except through proxy terrorist attacks. North Korea, on the other hand, does have missiles capable of reaching our West Coast and they do have nuclear warheads! Aside from the fact that North Korea has better military technology, a huge army, I would be much more reluctant to risk our troops against them than against Iranians. Iran and Iraq fought a long war in which neither one gained a true victory, despite claims by either side. Don't be mislead by the fact that Al Qaeda and ISIS are causing so much problems. For one thing, most Al Qaeda and ISIS members are not Iranians or Iraqis. If we applied our full might and fought the war as it should be fought, to win - we would defeat both easily. Yes. there will be greater loss of American lives, but we will defeat them. We would also defeat the North Koreans, but with a much greater number in loss of American lives!
I am baffled by the total lack of understanding of the situation, of Kim Jung Un's motives, on the part of our government and all of the supposed "brains" and future government leaders. The leading Republican candidate stated that we should let China deal with North Korea while the leading candidate for Democrats said we should immediately apply more sanctions! These are the two possible leaders of our country? That scares the hell out of me, they haven't a clue! The day after the North Korean bomb testing, Bill Richardson, the former Governor of New Mexico and former Ambassador to UN was on television and gave his "expert" views. Richardson, said essentially that we should all get together, hold hands and sing Kumbaya! I am exaggerating, of course, and being sarcastic, but what he said was that we should get together with China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia on one side and North Korea on the other, and come up with a deal. Sounds familiar doesn't it? Well, this was what we did back in 1994, and of course the deal fell through within a year when North Korea started cheating. Last year we struck a deal with Iran with "other" five countries, and guess what, Iran started cheating immediately, what a surprise.
The failure of the 1994 deal with North Korea is blamed on Bush's administration by the news media and Clinton's administration. They claim that when Bush came into office, his "hawkish" administration "alienated" the North Koreans with their right wing stance, thereby destroying the agreement. The fact is that the deal was already no good! By the time Bush came into office North Korea had more than 5 years to cheat! Bush's administration noted that North Korea was cheating and essentially "annulled" the worthless agreement!
We have plenty of very smart and very capable people, experts in areas (countries) and people. Yet, time and time again when we go to negotiating tables we send people who have very little if any knowledge of those with whom they are going to negotiate! Historically, the only time we did well was when we sat at the table with those we had completely defeated, those who had unconditionally surrendered like Germany and Japan in World War Two. Even then, it seems the "losers" got a pretty good deal in some cases. When we sat down to negotiate with North Korea at Panmunjom for the Cease Fire talks, the negotiations dragged on seemingly forever and we were taken to the cleaners! The North Koreans actually gained territory! It doesn't matter who held what territory at the time of talks, we should have demanded that the demarcation go back to pre-war at 38th Parallel. Instead, it ended up in a crooked line and North Korea ended up with territory previously held in South Korean hands!
The recent Iran Nuclear Deal talks is another perfect example. Iran got more than what it wanted. What did we get? Supposedly a suspension of nuclear arms development for the next decade. Of course there is no guarantee that the Iranians will not cheat! If they cheat and we decide to suspend the agreement and impose sanctions again, we still would have paid out billions and allowed Iran to sell oil and make billions! Oh, and by the way. Our illustrious Secretary of State is not known to be an expert on Middle East or Nuclear Affairs. His chief advisor and architect of the agreement during the talks was Wendy Sherman, the very same person who was involved in our deal with North Korea back in 1994. Wendy Sherman is neither a Korean or Iranian expert. She is, however, obviously a Democrat. Yeah, we sure learn from history!
Our main problem seems to be two fold. One, our government seems to lack institutional memory. Two, because our government changes every four or eight years, there is no continuity and yes, because of that, lack of aforementioned institutional memory. Our institutional memory only goes as far back as whichever political party is in administration. Add to this problem the fact that Democrats do not want to do anything that Republicans did or visa versa, and the whole situation is compounded and essentially, the right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing or was doing!
Kim Jung Un is not that difficult to figure out. Yes, he is a nut case. Yes, he just turned 33 and appears to be somewhat inexperienced. So, although we have to be mindful of what Kim Jung Un might be thinking, we primarily have to deal with his representatives who for the most part, are not as nutty as he is! Ours is a diverse and talented society, and there are plenty of people who know and understand very well the Korean and Iranian mentality, culture, and language. They don't have to be ethnic Korean or Iranians, just those who know the culture, history, and language. Of all the countries in the world, we have the largest population of people knowledgeable about Korea or Iran. As the old saying goes, "It takes a thief to catch a thief!" or to use a more appropriate Korean proverb, "To catch a fox, you need a wolf!" But alas, we seem to be trying to "use a chicken to catch a fox!"
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